202103 Choi-wan（彩雲）誕生 - 颱風討論

By Dinah
at 2021-05-31T09:49

Table of Contents

WTPQ20 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2103 CHOI-WAN (2103) UPGRADED FROM TD

ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 08.3N 131.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH

FORECAST

24HF 010000UTC 10.5N 129.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT

48HF 020000UTC 13.4N 126.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT

72HF 030000UTC 16.7N 124.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

--
◥◣◥◣ 歡迎搭乘西北太平洋第六世代環狀線捷運系統！　　　　　　　　　》》》◤
◢◤◢◤ Welcome to take Generation Ⅵ Circular Line of W.Pacific Metro! ◤

本側開門　　舒力基 → 彩雲 → 小熊
← ▍ ︽ ▍→ ——○—————●——————○——→
Exit side Surigae → Choi-wan → Koguma

--

Tags: 颱風

All Comments

By Blanche
at 2021-06-03T02:59

分類可以直接用「颱風」

By Quintina
at 2021-06-05T20:10

對流被切到歪一邊只會被鋒面當補給

By Jessica
at 2021-06-08T13:21

恭喜誕生

By Jack
at 2021-06-11T06:32

有種來台灣阿雖然可能只剩殘餘

By Necoo
at 2021-06-13T23:43

可能到菲律賓東部外海就消散了...

By Bethany
at 2021-06-16T16:53

https://i.imgur.com/Lr0M7KD.png

By Lucy
at 2021-06-19T10:04

對台灣的下雨有幫助嗎？？？？

By Edward Lewis
at 2021-06-22T03:15

走這條路線代表低層副高要退離南海吧

By Tristan Cohan
at 2021-06-24T20:26

崔志萬？

By Una
at 2021-06-27T13:37

不會把下周的雨搞掉吧 ...

By Selena
at 2021-06-30T06:47

拜託不要來亂等七八月再來

By Andrew
at 2021-07-02T23:58

沒那麼討厭颱風過

By Donna
at 2021-07-05T17:09

頗危險 6月5日梅雨機率下降中

By Yedda
at 2021-07-08T10:20

想噓，可是會噓到薇子囧

By Isla
at 2021-07-11T03:31

6/4 就會消失了

By Aaliyah
at 2021-07-13T20:41

生出來就捰奔了

By Andy
at 2021-07-16T13:52

很難去搞梅雨，反而是自己被搞掉

By Rachel
at 2021-07-19T07:03

這隻北上到巴士海峽時就被切死了

By Kumar
at 2021-07-22T00:14

路線代表的意義比較重要副高在未來幾天要退出南海

By Faithe
at 2021-07-24T17:25

所以數值預測接下來西南季風要起了了

By Irma
at 2021-07-27T10:35

所以..對台灣水情來說正面/負面哪個機率大??
上面推文看起來是正面意思嗎? 因為之前都說颱風不好

By William
at 2021-07-30T03:46

6/5那波鋒面搭配西南季風很完美的一道，但很可惜冷

By Dora
at 2021-08-01T20:57

目前僅JTWC認為會活到轉化溫帶氣旋

By Olivia
at 2021-08-04T14:08

空氣勢力太強影響台灣時間不長，然後6/8鋒面再度北

By Harry
at 2021-08-07T07:19

上，但缺乏了西南風結構變差

By Madame
at 2021-08-10T00:29

冷空氣太強是指相較之下太平洋高壓又太弱嗎

By Jessica
at 2021-08-12T17:40

LLCC已外露

By Daph Bay
at 2021-08-15T10:51

HWRF 00Z也太high了

By Xanthe
at 2021-08-18T04:02

撞菲的機率感覺在提升中數值很多都西修

By Isla
at 2021-08-20T21:13

https://i.imgur.com/tczr7vH.png

By Franklin
at 2021-08-23T14:23

目前最偏西的數值大概這樣

By Suhail Hany
at 2021-08-26T07:34

南海再北上的路徑也不錯耶!!!!!!!!!!

By Jake
at 2021-08-29T00:45

不好吧那張南部會淹大水...

By Faithe
at 2021-08-31T17:56

這個圖不太可能吧

By Victoria
at 2021-09-03T11:07

西半部登陸的颱風要睽違30多年後來了嗎？

By Ula
at 2021-09-06T04:17

娜克莉？

By Genevieve
at 2021-09-08T21:28

此颱未來所經環境太差....台灣未來還是看大環境..

By William
at 2021-09-11T14:39

951是快樂表嗎…

By Oliver
at 2021-09-14T07:50

那種無視地獄風切的模式到底???

By Edith
at 2021-09-17T01:01

JTWC 還是支持發展,已經給50KTS了 XDDDDDD

By Jacob
at 2021-09-19T18:11

海棠：

By Anthony
at 2021-09-22T11:22

隔壁棚的90W還有救嗎?

By Tristan Cohan
at 2021-09-25T04:33

https://i.imgur.com/2Lx69US.png

By Jacob
at 2021-09-27T21:44

90W才真的不該發展

By Edward Lewis
at 2021-09-30T14:55

別來亂然後6/5的鋒面TMD移動速度也太快了吧...

By Olga
at 2021-10-03T08:05

珠三角那個好像有機會演變成很厲害的熱低壓

By Mason
at 2021-10-06T01:16

會停課嗎？ (鬧

By Jake
at 2021-10-08T18:27

https://i.imgur.com/zxvQimD.png

By Audriana
at 2021-10-11T11:38

原來HWRF也有快樂表，我以為只有GFS有

By Ula
at 2021-10-14T04:49

https://i.imgur.com/R07nrC2.gif

By Oliver
at 2021-10-16T21:59

小嫩颱....

By Dinah
at 2021-10-19T15:10

如果真的那樣切進來大概一次讓整個中南部補滿還會
淹水

By Lily
at 2021-10-22T08:21

颱風季要開始了嗎？好期待啊

By Ivy
at 2021-10-25T01:32

話說這隻會不會變小鋼炮阿? 環流小但發展超乎預期
極端一點就可能會像HWRF那樣

By Sarah
at 2021-10-27T18:43

其他家數值看起來也有上調強度的跡象雖然環流小
搞不好奈米颱結果真的摸到TY下限

By Caroline
at 2021-10-30T11:53

CWB的季長期展望提到今年7.8月颱風可能不會很活躍..

By Zanna
at 2021-11-02T05:04

去年太平洋環境再來一次對吧 7月無颱高壓爆強

By Blanche
at 2021-11-04T22:15

很歡樂的HWRF https://i.imgur.com/0NCsPEX.png

By Carol
at 2021-11-07T15:26

937…

By Odelette
at 2021-11-10T08:37

https://i.imgur.com/RQTztjI.png

By Thomas
at 2021-11-13T01:47

https://i.imgur.com/JYPE6lj.png

By Poppy
at 2021-11-15T18:58

https://i.imgur.com/E3kXE9Y.png

By Barb Cronin
at 2021-11-18T12:09

https://i.imgur.com/Y5GIyWm.gif

By Anthony
at 2021-11-21T05:20

從台灣東南近海通過或甚至擦過陸地似乎快要變數值
的共識了差別只是在於強度是弱低壓/熱低/或甚至

By Charlie
at 2021-11-23T22:31

是像HWRF預測的小鋼炮? 強度預測上有分歧
小鋼炮應該是沒那麼容易啦

By Charlie
at 2021-11-26T15:41

請問這樣會順勢帶上西南氣流嗎？

By Edwina
at 2021-11-29T08:52

Dora大路徑類似2001 西馬隆或者2004康森路徑

By Edwina
at 2021-12-02T02:03

如果是上面颱風路徑可以補點高山降雨

By Olga
at 2021-12-04T19:14

西部大概沒戲山頂能補多少算多少

By Franklin
at 2021-12-07T12:25

通過呂宋不可能那麼快恢復944吧…

By Frederic
at 2021-12-10T05:35

颱風裸奔得有點嚴重
本來強對流還蓋得住半個LLCC 現在全部露出來

By Valerie
at 2021-12-12T22:46

https://i.imgur.com/eQ4xg1u.png 傳奇路徑

By Margaret
at 2021-12-15T15:57

這路徑是在畫樹葉喔

By Rae
at 2021-12-18T09:08

原來武漢肺炎會傳染給電腦XD
運算都暈了

By Delia
at 2021-12-21T02:19

感覺碰到菲律賓就會煙消雲散了

By Suhail Hany
at 2021-12-23T19:29

https://i.imgur.com/DzFcbQF.png

By Skylar Davis
at 2021-12-26T12:40

樓上這路徑目前最夢幻

By Doris
at 2021-12-29T05:51

CWB這報覺得碰到菲律賓就散了

By Elvira
at 2021-12-31T23:02

944撞南台灣…笑了

By Andy
at 2022-01-03T16:13

現在這樣全裸上去只會被鋒面給吸乾而已，沒什影響

By Rosalind
at 2022-01-06T09:23

真想知道今年台灣的颱風會有幾個

By Oliver
at 2022-01-09T02:34

能影響到台灣的颱風一年大概三至五個變異度很小

By Jacob
at 2022-01-11T19:45

CWB長期預報預估今年7、8月西太平洋擾動較少侵台
颱風也較少

By Agnes
at 2022-01-14T12:56

謝謝p大

By Doris
at 2022-01-17T06:07

能預測的也只有趨勢一兩個正面來的水貨颱也就飽了

By Joseph
at 2022-01-19T23:17

認同，少好啊災害少，但是雨要夠

By Belly
at 2022-01-22T16:28

希望有水貨但是不要致災

By Kama
at 2022-01-25T09:39

讚歐颱風快來歐

By Olive
at 2022-01-28T02:50

突然生一坨對流

By Agatha
at 2022-01-30T20:01

不太可能進來吧，日本好像也是報碰到菲律賓掰掰

By Cara
at 2022-02-02T13:11

遇到大風切就被切散了不會來啦

By Olive
at 2022-02-05T06:22

要夠西偏到菲西近海重整才有機會活久一點

By Isabella
at 2022-02-07T23:33

https://i.imgur.com/LLfTGfY.gif

By Liam
at 2022-02-10T16:44

走各機構主觀預測那路徑真的穩死至少也要西到

By Daph Bay
at 2022-02-13T09:55

WRFM這種程度或更西邊才有機會比較樂觀一點

By Valerie
at 2022-02-16T03:05

能吃個屍體也不錯

By Freda
at 2022-02-18T20:16

有機會帶些水氣漂上來嗎？

By Daph Bay
at 2022-02-21T13:27

https://i.imgur.com/uXKh65T.png

By Dorothy
at 2022-02-24T06:38

直接撞來南台灣臉上~ 拜託你了你來你來
這樣走會有機會帶一點西南氣流來嗎還是會破壞梅雨

By Jessica
at 2022-02-26T23:49

彩雲撐過整段菲律賓活下來了!!!

By Tracy
at 2022-03-01T16:59

從菲東外海北上沒有影響變成南海北上還有警特報機會

By Hamiltion
at 2022-03-04T10:10

走類似西馬隆路徑海警的確歐有機會

By Zenobia
at 2022-03-07T03:21

氣象局2：30要發海警了？

202103 Choi-wan（彩雲）誕生 - 颱風討論

All Comments

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