2107 查帕卡 - 颱風討論

說是一篇廢文,各位追風愉快。


JTWC第6報已經給了C1強度了

https://i.imgur.com/3KqtpWn.gif

Windy雷達回波
https://i.imgur.com/aDAJsRK.png

EC系集

https://i.imgur.com/Ukb7bPR.png

GFS系集(待補)

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JTWC第6報說明文字認為風切、海溫和輻散都有利於

颱風發展,但是颱風已經非常靠近陸地了,陸地的干擾

不利於颱風發展,因此預測65KTS封頂。颱風登陸後

強度當然就大幅減弱啦!


路徑方面太多不確定性。颱風會先向西北移動並登陸,

颱風登陸後先觀察颱風能活多久,並觀察是否會掉到北

部灣或雷州半島。預報員對72小時內的路徑預測沒什麼

把握(forecast confidence:Low),72小時後路徑預測更

不用講了~


FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION IS BEGINNING TO SLOW
DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 10W WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND
MOVE ASHORE NEAR TAU 18. AFTER LANDFALL, A LOOPING OVERLAND TRACK
WILL WEAKEN THE SYTEM SUBSTANTIALLY BUT NOT COMPLETELY KILL IT.
TRACK GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT IN CARRYING THE VORTEX
BACK OUT TO SEA OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN IN THE TAU 48-72 HOUR
PERIOD, WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL RE-INTENSIFY AND BE PUSHED POLEWARD
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MONSOONAL SOUTHWESTERLIES. THERE IS GREAT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DURING THE LATER PERIODS DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY IN WHERE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF TONKIN AND
WHAT TRACK IT TAKES OVER HAINAN, AS WELL AS CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA.


MODEL DISCUSSION: AFTER LANDFALL, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL
VARIABILITY IN HOW AND WHERE IT RE-ENTERS THE GULF OF TONKIN AND
TRAVERSES HAINAN ISLAND. THEREFORE THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE INTENSITY IN THE TAU 72-120HR PERIOD.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//

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