90W升格13W - 颱風討論

JTWC第4報

https://i.imgur.com/kLOi5KP.gif

GFS 系集 (03 18Z)

https://i.imgur.com/wwKt5nD.png

EC系集 (03 06Z)

https://i.imgur.com/tLPaLf4.png


JTWC說明文字

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 20-25 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD


FORECAST DISCUSSION: UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER, TD
13W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UP TO TAU 24.
AFTERWARD, AS THE NER BUILDS, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO 40KTS BY TAU 24. BY TAU 48,
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO 35KTS AS IT DRAGS ALONG THE CHINESE
COAST, THEN IMPROVES TO 40KTS BY TAU 12O WHEN IT EXITS INTO THE
YELLOW SEA. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK FURTHER INLAND AND DISSIPATE BEFORE TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THE TWO OUTLIERS ARE JGSM THAT
TRACKS THE VORTEX DUE NORTH DEEP INTO THE CHINA INTERIOR, AND AVN
THAT MOMENTARILY DIPS THE VORTEX SOUTH THEN TRACKS THE VORTEX INTO
CHINA IN AN ERRATIC PATTERN. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID JUST
NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 24 HRS THEN RIGHT OF CONSENSUS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TO OFFSET THE OUTLIER MODELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//

--