天氣小觀:一週後期,東亞西風帶南移 - 颱風討論
By Olivia
at 2021-10-24T20:36
at 2021-10-24T20:36
Table of Contents
春季到夏季,西風帶會北跳,
秋季到冬季,西風帶不會南跳,而是漸進式南移;
這是因為
春季到夏季,夏季暖高壓受夏季季風突然爆發而突進,
而,
秋季到冬季,冬季冷渦旋則要配合北極渦旋的漸強南壓。
這次東亞大槽的進擊,對冬季系統而言是重要的里程碑,
冷空氣/冷氣團讓東亞降溫後,
模式預報一週後期,
大氣中層500百帕西風帶月底南移到台灣北部海面,
相較於往年10月底在東海的500百西風帶,今年較為接近台灣。
同時,
南海北部大氣高層轉為西風,地面層為東北季風,
風切非常大,導致南海99W在惡劣環境中發展難度高。
另外位於關島附近的25W,情況就比南海環境好上許多,
這裡是太平洋高壓勢力西南側,沒有西風槽的垂直風切,
這季節的太平洋高壓也不像夏季般強勢,
模式預期25W會沿著太平洋高壓邊緣勢力北上,
且由於後期東亞西風帶南移,25W幾乎確定不會接近台灣。
而東亞西風帶南移後,南海北部順勢轉為副高場,
亞洲南方熱海的副高場又要連結一片,
因此,
太平洋高壓改以副高稱呼。
西風帶南移後,冷高壓勢力可以從蒙古或東北亞直吹台灣,
因此,台灣天氣主要就受東北季風強弱變化,
模式看來,由於東亞轉冷後,西伯利亞極地冷氣團重新發展,
未來一週沒有明顯的西風大槽堆積較強的蒙古冷高壓,
因此東北季風強度比起上週小很多,降雨就偏向東北部的地形雨。
簡單來說,一週後期台灣就由冬季系統穩穩控場了,
但冬季系統主力還在西伯利亞發展,因此看似入冬,實則深秋。
而,
真正的冬季,還是要等北極渦旋的漸強南壓。
只是,
夏季迷已經開始懷念夏天的輕鬆穿著了。
(以上供參考囉)
--
秋季到冬季,西風帶不會南跳,而是漸進式南移;
這是因為
春季到夏季,夏季暖高壓受夏季季風突然爆發而突進,
而,
秋季到冬季,冬季冷渦旋則要配合北極渦旋的漸強南壓。
這次東亞大槽的進擊,對冬季系統而言是重要的里程碑,
冷空氣/冷氣團讓東亞降溫後,
模式預報一週後期,
大氣中層500百帕西風帶月底南移到台灣北部海面,
相較於往年10月底在東海的500百西風帶,今年較為接近台灣。
同時,
南海北部大氣高層轉為西風,地面層為東北季風,
風切非常大,導致南海99W在惡劣環境中發展難度高。
另外位於關島附近的25W,情況就比南海環境好上許多,
這裡是太平洋高壓勢力西南側,沒有西風槽的垂直風切,
這季節的太平洋高壓也不像夏季般強勢,
模式預期25W會沿著太平洋高壓邊緣勢力北上,
且由於後期東亞西風帶南移,25W幾乎確定不會接近台灣。
而東亞西風帶南移後,南海北部順勢轉為副高場,
亞洲南方熱海的副高場又要連結一片,
因此,
太平洋高壓改以副高稱呼。
西風帶南移後,冷高壓勢力可以從蒙古或東北亞直吹台灣,
因此,台灣天氣主要就受東北季風強弱變化,
模式看來,由於東亞轉冷後,西伯利亞極地冷氣團重新發展,
未來一週沒有明顯的西風大槽堆積較強的蒙古冷高壓,
因此東北季風強度比起上週小很多,降雨就偏向東北部的地形雨。
簡單來說,一週後期台灣就由冬季系統穩穩控場了,
但冬季系統主力還在西伯利亞發展,因此看似入冬,實則深秋。
而,
真正的冬季,還是要等北極渦旋的漸強南壓。
只是,
夏季迷已經開始懷念夏天的輕鬆穿著了。
(以上供參考囉)
--
Tags:
颱風
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