天氣小觀:中颱軒嵐諾,挑戰強颱應該沒問題 - 颱風討論
By Noah
at 2022-08-30T13:54
at 2022-08-30T13:54
Table of Contents
天氣小觀:中颱軒嵐諾,挑戰強颱應該沒問題
軒嵐諾颱風的誕生從8/26西太平洋由西向東的季風槽中三團擾動,
靠東邊的分別兩個98W和90W,其中又以90W是最靠東邊的熱帶擾動,
由於位於太平洋高壓中心西南邊緣,初始氣旋最有利維持,
加上西風槽提供的槽前輻散,於是率先形成軒嵐諾颱風。
目前中度颱風軒嵐諾颱風在暖池及未來良好的高空輻散環境,
挑戰強烈颱風應該不是問題。
目前路徑上來看影響台灣機率高,
模式軒嵐諾颱風將由華南地區的太平洋高壓分裂單體接手,
路徑上會往西南西過來,
而未來一週通過黃海的西風槽要等到後期才會對華南分裂高壓單體造成重大打擊,
屆時軒嵐諾颱風已經較為接近台灣。
整段路徑對台灣來看,可分為三段關鍵處,
1.太平洋高壓完全斷裂的時間點
模式顯示,華南的西側單體副高與東側主太平洋高壓的藕斷絲連持續3天,
因此,軒嵐諾颱風受北方西風槽牽引機率不高
等到太平洋高壓完全斷裂後,軒嵐諾颱風已經位於槽後脊的位置。
也就是這段槽後脊與華南分裂副高合力造成軒嵐諾颱風往西南落,
這一段路徑決定接近台灣的距離。
2.缺乏導引氣流的大氣環境
軒嵐諾颱風往西南落後,因華南單體副高受到打擊逐漸消退,
少了導引氣流後,軒嵐諾颱風放慢速度,靠著內力緩緩往北移。
此時,
若太平洋高壓從軒嵐諾颱風南側西伸,
軒嵐諾颱風往北分量增加,相對就會離台灣遠一點。
反之,
北方西風槽淺化後,太平洋高壓重新西伸的東風導引,就會接近台灣。
3.第二道西風槽帶走軒嵐諾颱風的位置
模式一週尾聲,西伯利亞又一道西風槽向南延伸,
這道西風槽看來很有威力,會直接帶走軒嵐諾颱風,
如果軒嵐諾颱風從東海被牽引,西南尾帶起的西南季風後,
直接在台灣上演類東北季風大戰西南季風的地面秀。
反之,
如果軒嵐諾颱風從沖繩海域被牽引,類東北季風強勢驅趕南海西南季風。
溫度轉涼爽舒適,降雨較溫和。
只能說,這就是秋天了,文學的季節,
Albert Einstein: Logic will get you from A to B.
Imagination will take you everywhere.
愛因斯坦說:邏輯會帶你從A點到達B點,想像力將把你帶到任何地方。
台灣的天氣變化從明晚起,
1.
軒嵐諾颱風外圍環流就會和類東北季風輻合,雲雨帶掃進北台灣,
2.
再來是外圍環流的逼近,北部東北部繼續下雨
<A版本>
3A.
軒嵐諾颱風離台灣近,全台降雨。
4A.
軒嵐諾颱風從東海由西風槽牽引,類東北季風大戰西南季風,全台繼續降雨,
北部東北部最大苦主。
<B版本>
3B
軒嵐諾颱風離台灣遠,外圍環流輕掃北部山區。
4B
涼高壓南下,舒爽天氣。
(拭目以待囉)
--
軒嵐諾颱風的誕生從8/26西太平洋由西向東的季風槽中三團擾動,
靠東邊的分別兩個98W和90W,其中又以90W是最靠東邊的熱帶擾動,
由於位於太平洋高壓中心西南邊緣,初始氣旋最有利維持,
加上西風槽提供的槽前輻散,於是率先形成軒嵐諾颱風。
目前中度颱風軒嵐諾颱風在暖池及未來良好的高空輻散環境,
挑戰強烈颱風應該不是問題。
目前路徑上來看影響台灣機率高,
模式軒嵐諾颱風將由華南地區的太平洋高壓分裂單體接手,
路徑上會往西南西過來,
而未來一週通過黃海的西風槽要等到後期才會對華南分裂高壓單體造成重大打擊,
屆時軒嵐諾颱風已經較為接近台灣。
整段路徑對台灣來看,可分為三段關鍵處,
1.太平洋高壓完全斷裂的時間點
模式顯示,華南的西側單體副高與東側主太平洋高壓的藕斷絲連持續3天,
因此,軒嵐諾颱風受北方西風槽牽引機率不高
等到太平洋高壓完全斷裂後,軒嵐諾颱風已經位於槽後脊的位置。
也就是這段槽後脊與華南分裂副高合力造成軒嵐諾颱風往西南落,
這一段路徑決定接近台灣的距離。
2.缺乏導引氣流的大氣環境
軒嵐諾颱風往西南落後,因華南單體副高受到打擊逐漸消退,
少了導引氣流後,軒嵐諾颱風放慢速度,靠著內力緩緩往北移。
此時,
若太平洋高壓從軒嵐諾颱風南側西伸,
軒嵐諾颱風往北分量增加,相對就會離台灣遠一點。
反之,
北方西風槽淺化後,太平洋高壓重新西伸的東風導引,就會接近台灣。
3.第二道西風槽帶走軒嵐諾颱風的位置
模式一週尾聲,西伯利亞又一道西風槽向南延伸,
這道西風槽看來很有威力,會直接帶走軒嵐諾颱風,
如果軒嵐諾颱風從東海被牽引,西南尾帶起的西南季風後,
直接在台灣上演類東北季風大戰西南季風的地面秀。
反之,
如果軒嵐諾颱風從沖繩海域被牽引,類東北季風強勢驅趕南海西南季風。
溫度轉涼爽舒適,降雨較溫和。
只能說,這就是秋天了,文學的季節,
Albert Einstein: Logic will get you from A to B.
Imagination will take you everywhere.
愛因斯坦說:邏輯會帶你從A點到達B點,想像力將把你帶到任何地方。
台灣的天氣變化從明晚起,
1.
軒嵐諾颱風外圍環流就會和類東北季風輻合,雲雨帶掃進北台灣,
2.
再來是外圍環流的逼近,北部東北部繼續下雨
<A版本>
3A.
軒嵐諾颱風離台灣近,全台降雨。
4A.
軒嵐諾颱風從東海由西風槽牽引,類東北季風大戰西南季風,全台繼續降雨,
北部東北部最大苦主。
<B版本>
3B
軒嵐諾颱風離台灣遠,外圍環流輕掃北部山區。
4B
涼高壓南下,舒爽天氣。
(拭目以待囉)
--
Tags:
颱風
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