天氣小觀:冷高壓迫不及待,傍晚起冷氣團明寒流 - 颱風討論
By Poppy
at 2022-02-19T11:31
at 2022-02-19T11:31
Table of Contents
天氣小觀:蒙古冷高壓迫不及待分裂南下,傍晚起冷氣團,明天首波寒流
目前,
蒙古冷高壓迫不及待已開始分裂南下,看來東亞寒潮爆發的有利環境比預期好些,
週日台北最低溫EC模式調降為9度,GFS也調降為8度;看來將會達標寒流了。
蒙古冷高原南下的東亞寒潮爆發,對台灣的影響往往很直接,
高原下來的冷凍氣團走華北平原或東北平原,
接著就出海從渤海,黃海,東海一路的東亞沿海直下台灣北部,
儘管走海路冷凍氣團減弱很快,但少了地形阻擋加上海氣耦合的濕冷更加刺骨。
今天午後起氣溫開始直直落,冷氣團傍晚起報到,
加上華南雲雨帶沿著副高邊緣往台灣過來,
由於副高的關係,主冷高壓中心並不會立刻南下,
而是由分裂冷高壓南下掃除中南半島增溫的暖氣團;
中南半島與印度半島不同,
因中南半島容易受北方冷空氣影響,
因此,即便同樣與印度半島低緯度,
夏季系統也很難從中南半島建立穩定場。
反觀,
印度半島在伊朗高原、青藏高原、雲貴高原等地形的屏障下,
下週印度半島增溫後,就會逐漸建立起地面熱低壓對應高空暖高壓(夏季系統正式甦醒)。
之後太平洋上的副高也將跟著西伸並嘗試北抬;
因此,228天氣有機會春暖花開,
3月以後"太平洋上的副高崛起,向北挑戰冬季系統",屆時改稱"太平洋高壓了"
不過,時間還很長,
是否228春暖花開,還要看北方冬季系統的狀況了。
目前超級北極渦旋,百帕高度場中心14700米(想像870百帕超級強氣旋),
還是偏向北美,但由於太強大了,空投冷凍氣團到北亞、東北亞、東亞一點也沒問題,
在超級北極渦旋空投下,又與西伯利亞東部的高空冷渦旋疊加,將出現北極渦旋副中心,
如此一來,主副兩中心一個在北亞,一個在北美,
後續主副兩中心合併的形勢下,
北極渦旋中心就會往北極調整,甚至不排除轉向北亞(副中心取代主中心)。
後續再觀察了。
現在重視就是傍晚冷氣團,明天寒流了。
(以上供參囉)
--
目前,
蒙古冷高壓迫不及待已開始分裂南下,看來東亞寒潮爆發的有利環境比預期好些,
週日台北最低溫EC模式調降為9度,GFS也調降為8度;看來將會達標寒流了。
蒙古冷高原南下的東亞寒潮爆發,對台灣的影響往往很直接,
高原下來的冷凍氣團走華北平原或東北平原,
接著就出海從渤海,黃海,東海一路的東亞沿海直下台灣北部,
儘管走海路冷凍氣團減弱很快,但少了地形阻擋加上海氣耦合的濕冷更加刺骨。
今天午後起氣溫開始直直落,冷氣團傍晚起報到,
加上華南雲雨帶沿著副高邊緣往台灣過來,
由於副高的關係,主冷高壓中心並不會立刻南下,
而是由分裂冷高壓南下掃除中南半島增溫的暖氣團;
中南半島與印度半島不同,
因中南半島容易受北方冷空氣影響,
因此,即便同樣與印度半島低緯度,
夏季系統也很難從中南半島建立穩定場。
反觀,
印度半島在伊朗高原、青藏高原、雲貴高原等地形的屏障下,
下週印度半島增溫後,就會逐漸建立起地面熱低壓對應高空暖高壓(夏季系統正式甦醒)。
之後太平洋上的副高也將跟著西伸並嘗試北抬;
因此,228天氣有機會春暖花開,
3月以後"太平洋上的副高崛起,向北挑戰冬季系統",屆時改稱"太平洋高壓了"
不過,時間還很長,
是否228春暖花開,還要看北方冬季系統的狀況了。
目前超級北極渦旋,百帕高度場中心14700米(想像870百帕超級強氣旋),
還是偏向北美,但由於太強大了,空投冷凍氣團到北亞、東北亞、東亞一點也沒問題,
在超級北極渦旋空投下,又與西伯利亞東部的高空冷渦旋疊加,將出現北極渦旋副中心,
如此一來,主副兩中心一個在北亞,一個在北美,
後續主副兩中心合併的形勢下,
北極渦旋中心就會往北極調整,甚至不排除轉向北亞(副中心取代主中心)。
後續再觀察了。
現在重視就是傍晚冷氣團,明天寒流了。
(以上供參囉)
--
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