天氣小觀:北極渦旋再臨,模式12/1冷氣團 - 颱風討論
By Thomas
at 2021-11-27T10:53
at 2021-11-27T10:53
Table of Contents
最新模式重新調整為長時間冷氣團,原因當然和北極渦旋有關了:
1.
北極渦旋增強,勢力往南擴大,12/1的東亞寒潮爆發,台灣冷氣團。
最新模式預報從12/1 ~ 12/4 一連4天冷氣團,雖不是寒流,但也不是往年的初冬呀
如果是4天冷氣團 ,那是隆冬
如果是4天強冷空氣,那是冬至
因此,
即便不是4天冷氣團,也是1~2天冷氣團+1~2天好冷空氣,
北極渦旋一出手,就冷多天了,大衣厚衣要保暖了。
目前北極渦旋百帕高度場中心位於北極新地島高空,強度緩緩增強中,
百帕高度場強度剛剛增強至15100米以下,悍然為很強烈的渦旋(想像910百帕強烈氣旋)
然而,
模式顯示未來一週北極渦旋想挑戰15000米以下有點難度,
畢竟才要進入12月初,東亞大槽就如此活躍,
北極渦旋還沒變成超強渦旋之前,就因東亞大槽的表現而分流,
導致未來一週,北極渦旋中心強度一直無法增強至15000米以下。
如此一來,模式修正為
11月底東亞寒潮爆發,12/1起台灣冷氣團多天。
下一波東亞寒潮爆發因北極渦旋重新蓄力,延後一段時間。
2.
12/5以後,北極渦旋緊縮重新蓄力,何時再發威還很久了;
因此,看來確定12月初沒有寒流。
今天的雨勢因為菲律賓的東風波動,台灣附近的西風帶北拱,
大氣中層西風噴流剛好從台灣北拱,從東海往日本南方是噴流最強軸,
於是台灣變成順時針噴流的右後方,高空輻散條件變好;
高層噴流的右後方-台灣北部高空輻散條件好,有利降雨。
但
台灣北部海面的東北季風不算太強,雨勢明顯但雨量不比昨天,
反而是台灣東部海面到巴士海峽,因為東風波動,
東北季風和偏東風輻合,地面噴流強勁,但台灣東南方高空沒有高層噴流,
因此,
台灣北部海面高空輻散降雨條件較好,台灣東南海面地面輻合降雨條件好。
又由於東北季風迎風面在北部東北部,地形雨使今天北部東北部雨勢明顯。
明後天台灣東南方有東風波擾動緩緩發展,
擾動北側的偏東風環境,重雨區就是東部,尤其宜花了;
不過擾動發展條件差,偏東風不會變成噴流,降雨看來也不會太劇烈。
(以上供參囉)
--
1.
北極渦旋增強,勢力往南擴大,12/1的東亞寒潮爆發,台灣冷氣團。
最新模式預報從12/1 ~ 12/4 一連4天冷氣團,雖不是寒流,但也不是往年的初冬呀
如果是4天冷氣團 ,那是隆冬
如果是4天強冷空氣,那是冬至
因此,
即便不是4天冷氣團,也是1~2天冷氣團+1~2天好冷空氣,
北極渦旋一出手,就冷多天了,大衣厚衣要保暖了。
目前北極渦旋百帕高度場中心位於北極新地島高空,強度緩緩增強中,
百帕高度場強度剛剛增強至15100米以下,悍然為很強烈的渦旋(想像910百帕強烈氣旋)
然而,
模式顯示未來一週北極渦旋想挑戰15000米以下有點難度,
畢竟才要進入12月初,東亞大槽就如此活躍,
北極渦旋還沒變成超強渦旋之前,就因東亞大槽的表現而分流,
導致未來一週,北極渦旋中心強度一直無法增強至15000米以下。
如此一來,模式修正為
11月底東亞寒潮爆發,12/1起台灣冷氣團多天。
下一波東亞寒潮爆發因北極渦旋重新蓄力,延後一段時間。
2.
12/5以後,北極渦旋緊縮重新蓄力,何時再發威還很久了;
因此,看來確定12月初沒有寒流。
今天的雨勢因為菲律賓的東風波動,台灣附近的西風帶北拱,
大氣中層西風噴流剛好從台灣北拱,從東海往日本南方是噴流最強軸,
於是台灣變成順時針噴流的右後方,高空輻散條件變好;
高層噴流的右後方-台灣北部高空輻散條件好,有利降雨。
但
台灣北部海面的東北季風不算太強,雨勢明顯但雨量不比昨天,
反而是台灣東部海面到巴士海峽,因為東風波動,
東北季風和偏東風輻合,地面噴流強勁,但台灣東南方高空沒有高層噴流,
因此,
台灣北部海面高空輻散降雨條件較好,台灣東南海面地面輻合降雨條件好。
又由於東北季風迎風面在北部東北部,地形雨使今天北部東北部雨勢明顯。
明後天台灣東南方有東風波擾動緩緩發展,
擾動北側的偏東風環境,重雨區就是東部,尤其宜花了;
不過擾動發展條件差,偏東風不會變成噴流,降雨看來也不會太劇烈。
(以上供參囉)
--
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