天氣小觀:地形雨下到週末,後期超級北極渦旋 - 颱風討論
By Hardy
at 2022-01-18T21:25
at 2022-01-18T21:25
Table of Contents
天氣小觀:地形雨下到週末,未來一週,北極渦旋再增強,後期超級北極渦旋
雖然應該和東加火山爆發關係很小,但北極渦旋開始不尋常了,
模式預報後期百帕高度場14900米以下的超級北極渦旋,
持續再增強為14800米以下(想像880百帕超級氣旋),
如此,超級強烈的北極渦旋,就要留意是否異常強極渦事件發生。
北極渦旋不斷增強,
於是北極高空往中緯度的等位溫面更加傾斜,
如此一來,北極超級冷凍氣團就能輕鬆空投地灑下南方,
一旦異常強極渦事件出現,南方就是準備冷凍很久了。(冷暖冷冷冷...)
目前模式來看,下週,東亞大部分地區會持續性的寒流侵襲,
但除了"東亞的東南側"包括華南沿岸與台灣。
此時,冷暖對峙變的明顯且可能激烈,原因當然和菲律賓南方有氣旋擾動出現。
屆時,
強極渦的大氣形勢,
東亞冷區長期的"寒潮" 對比東亞暖區(台灣)沒寒流感覺 => 將很有趣。
時間還久,待觀察了。
至於未來一週前半段,
前兩天由於蒙古冷高壓延遲南下,剛好又接上今起的西伯利亞冷高壓南下,
因此北宜的濕雨天氣就很明顯,一路雨下到週末。
不過西風槽不夠深,西伯利亞冷高壓南下有限,
週六西伯利亞冷高壓東移減弱時,南支槽東移,華南雲雨帶再次發展出來。
因此整體來看,北東部的雨下到週六囉。
下週,超級北極渦旋的出現,
原本觀察對流層大氣,又要升到平流層來觀察了。
觀察平流層大氣的是否出現重大事件:
1. 異常極渦事件
2. 爆發性增溫事件
(以上供參囉)
--
雖然應該和東加火山爆發關係很小,但北極渦旋開始不尋常了,
模式預報後期百帕高度場14900米以下的超級北極渦旋,
持續再增強為14800米以下(想像880百帕超級氣旋),
如此,超級強烈的北極渦旋,就要留意是否異常強極渦事件發生。
北極渦旋不斷增強,
於是北極高空往中緯度的等位溫面更加傾斜,
如此一來,北極超級冷凍氣團就能輕鬆空投地灑下南方,
一旦異常強極渦事件出現,南方就是準備冷凍很久了。(冷暖冷冷冷...)
目前模式來看,下週,東亞大部分地區會持續性的寒流侵襲,
但除了"東亞的東南側"包括華南沿岸與台灣。
此時,冷暖對峙變的明顯且可能激烈,原因當然和菲律賓南方有氣旋擾動出現。
屆時,
強極渦的大氣形勢,
東亞冷區長期的"寒潮" 對比東亞暖區(台灣)沒寒流感覺 => 將很有趣。
時間還久,待觀察了。
至於未來一週前半段,
前兩天由於蒙古冷高壓延遲南下,剛好又接上今起的西伯利亞冷高壓南下,
因此北宜的濕雨天氣就很明顯,一路雨下到週末。
不過西風槽不夠深,西伯利亞冷高壓南下有限,
週六西伯利亞冷高壓東移減弱時,南支槽東移,華南雲雨帶再次發展出來。
因此整體來看,北東部的雨下到週六囉。
下週,超級北極渦旋的出現,
原本觀察對流層大氣,又要升到平流層來觀察了。
觀察平流層大氣的是否出現重大事件:
1. 異常極渦事件
2. 爆發性增溫事件
(以上供參囉)
--
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