天氣小觀:模式預報孟加拉灣西南季風一週後爆發 - 颱風討論
By Hedy
at 2022-04-27T19:44
at 2022-04-27T19:44
Table of Contents
未來一週的天氣大事真不少,當然精彩的在南方夏季系統。
首先看北方冬季系統,
明起西伯利亞有一個冷高壓往蒙古,後天從蒙古南下,
但週六吹往台灣的是日本海過來的東北風,
但吹往台灣的是從日本海過來的東北風,
可見這時節冷高壓已無法從蒙古帶出真正東北季風;
反而,
冷高壓離開蒙古,一部分勢力在東亞分裂副中心後,才有較涼的東北風南下。
由於這次冷高壓往新疆盆地堆積,因此堆積的勢力範圍頗大,
加上下週南海氣旋擾動加強東北風,強東北風加上下雨,溫度下降明顯;
但,
東亞冷高壓+南海氣旋擾動的東北風,,
這種東北風/類東北季風 很像秋天的地面秀,東北部可能留意雨勢,
但也只是短暫,
因為東亞冷高壓的類東北季風太弱,很快東移減弱,
大氣環境轉為一般的氣旋雲雨帶北上。
至於,南海的氣旋是否發展為颱風,歐洲與美軍模式預報差很大,
歐洲模式顯示南海南部的氣旋擾動受太平洋高壓推擠進入中南半島,
再受西風槽逼退太平洋高壓後迴轉東北往台灣接近,
但因氣旋受地形破壞,雲雨帶結構鬆散,要重新發展需要時間,
可能以熱低型態通過南台灣。
美軍模式認為,南海南部的氣旋擾動會卡在中南半島沿海,
原因當然是太平洋高壓東退的早,於是較不受地形破壞的迴轉,
影響台灣就要注意些,尤其南臺灣。
當然,無論是歐洲還是美軍模式,
都會帶起一週過後準備爆發的孟加拉灣西南季風,
北半球的夏季季風要登場囉,拭目以待囉
(以上供參囉)
--
首先看北方冬季系統,
明起西伯利亞有一個冷高壓往蒙古,後天從蒙古南下,
但週六吹往台灣的是日本海過來的東北風,
但吹往台灣的是從日本海過來的東北風,
可見這時節冷高壓已無法從蒙古帶出真正東北季風;
反而,
冷高壓離開蒙古,一部分勢力在東亞分裂副中心後,才有較涼的東北風南下。
由於這次冷高壓往新疆盆地堆積,因此堆積的勢力範圍頗大,
加上下週南海氣旋擾動加強東北風,強東北風加上下雨,溫度下降明顯;
但,
東亞冷高壓+南海氣旋擾動的東北風,,
這種東北風/類東北季風 很像秋天的地面秀,東北部可能留意雨勢,
但也只是短暫,
因為東亞冷高壓的類東北季風太弱,很快東移減弱,
大氣環境轉為一般的氣旋雲雨帶北上。
至於,南海的氣旋是否發展為颱風,歐洲與美軍模式預報差很大,
歐洲模式顯示南海南部的氣旋擾動受太平洋高壓推擠進入中南半島,
再受西風槽逼退太平洋高壓後迴轉東北往台灣接近,
但因氣旋受地形破壞,雲雨帶結構鬆散,要重新發展需要時間,
可能以熱低型態通過南台灣。
美軍模式認為,南海南部的氣旋擾動會卡在中南半島沿海,
原因當然是太平洋高壓東退的早,於是較不受地形破壞的迴轉,
影響台灣就要注意些,尤其南臺灣。
當然,無論是歐洲還是美軍模式,
都會帶起一週過後準備爆發的孟加拉灣西南季風,
北半球的夏季季風要登場囉,拭目以待囉
(以上供參囉)
--
Tags:
颱風
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