天氣小觀:立夏,對流雨增多 - 颱風討論
By Linda
at 2021-05-05T17:42
at 2021-05-05T17:42
Table of Contents
春季多鋒面雨;夏季多對流雨;秋季多氣旋雨;冬季多地形雨。
時序走到立夏,在節氣上代表夏季開始,對應大氣環境就是熱對流雨的季節來了。
在國曆季節月份上,屬於春末/夏初時節,梅雨季會在這時節展開,
北方已無強冷高壓,東北季風也退離台灣,剩下的就是東亞殘存的冷空氣影響。
昨天至今天,東亞地面弱高壓推動一波鋒面通過,
但在太平洋高壓的崛起下,鋒面結構抵達台灣後迅速轉差,降雨很快停止,
降溫後北台灣氣溫變得舒適,而中南部仍高溫偏熱又偏乾。
不過,熱對流作用下,山區開始有午後降雨;
模式預報,未來一週台灣一直處於太平洋高壓西側,
太平洋高壓強勢一點,午後熱對流雨範圍規模較小,
太平洋高壓弱勢一點,午後熱對流雨範圍規模較大。
在太平洋高壓北側則是出現這季節著名的梅雨滯留鋒,
但未來一週仍碰不到台灣,
因此台灣處於太平洋高壓的東南風與鋒面前緣的西南風交會,
北部/東北部位處於背風低壓,太平洋高壓弱一點午後有機會出現熱對流雨。
但整體來說,太平洋高壓勢力還是影響台灣,
因此除山區由於地勢高,熱對流突破太平洋高壓逆溫層較平地容易外,
平地降雨還是容易受太平洋高壓下沉氣流抑制。
週五以後鋒面較接近台灣,在鋒前偏西南風的背風低壓下,
北部和東北部的午後熱雷雨有機會,而且整體大環境短時間內都是偏南風~偏西南風,
因此,北部/東北部會一直處於背風低壓區較有利熱對流雨出現。
至於真正梅雨滯留鋒到台灣的觀察,
從大氣高層來看,模式顯示一週後期南亞高壓雛型差不多了,準備正式登場,
因此,有了南亞高壓推擠,南北冷暖大戰下,東亞梅雨滯留鋒維持是沒有問題的;
但太平洋高壓短期內不會東退,因此梅雨鋒面壓不下來和南海西南季風也要再等等。
好消息是,
孟加拉灣西南季風在準備了,一週後期地面風已經轉為西南風,就等爆發了,
較可惜是由於南支槽勢力活躍,不利氣旋發展,
降雨偏向槽前的中南半島到華南地區,屬春雨形勢,對西南季風爆發加持有限。
(快速說說,以上供參囉)
--
時序走到立夏,在節氣上代表夏季開始,對應大氣環境就是熱對流雨的季節來了。
在國曆季節月份上,屬於春末/夏初時節,梅雨季會在這時節展開,
北方已無強冷高壓,東北季風也退離台灣,剩下的就是東亞殘存的冷空氣影響。
昨天至今天,東亞地面弱高壓推動一波鋒面通過,
但在太平洋高壓的崛起下,鋒面結構抵達台灣後迅速轉差,降雨很快停止,
降溫後北台灣氣溫變得舒適,而中南部仍高溫偏熱又偏乾。
不過,熱對流作用下,山區開始有午後降雨;
模式預報,未來一週台灣一直處於太平洋高壓西側,
太平洋高壓強勢一點,午後熱對流雨範圍規模較小,
太平洋高壓弱勢一點,午後熱對流雨範圍規模較大。
在太平洋高壓北側則是出現這季節著名的梅雨滯留鋒,
但未來一週仍碰不到台灣,
因此台灣處於太平洋高壓的東南風與鋒面前緣的西南風交會,
北部/東北部位處於背風低壓,太平洋高壓弱一點午後有機會出現熱對流雨。
但整體來說,太平洋高壓勢力還是影響台灣,
因此除山區由於地勢高,熱對流突破太平洋高壓逆溫層較平地容易外,
平地降雨還是容易受太平洋高壓下沉氣流抑制。
週五以後鋒面較接近台灣,在鋒前偏西南風的背風低壓下,
北部和東北部的午後熱雷雨有機會,而且整體大環境短時間內都是偏南風~偏西南風,
因此,北部/東北部會一直處於背風低壓區較有利熱對流雨出現。
至於真正梅雨滯留鋒到台灣的觀察,
從大氣高層來看,模式顯示一週後期南亞高壓雛型差不多了,準備正式登場,
因此,有了南亞高壓推擠,南北冷暖大戰下,東亞梅雨滯留鋒維持是沒有問題的;
但太平洋高壓短期內不會東退,因此梅雨鋒面壓不下來和南海西南季風也要再等等。
好消息是,
孟加拉灣西南季風在準備了,一週後期地面風已經轉為西南風,就等爆發了,
較可惜是由於南支槽勢力活躍,不利氣旋發展,
降雨偏向槽前的中南半島到華南地區,屬春雨形勢,對西南季風爆發加持有限。
(快速說說,以上供參囉)
--
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