天氣小觀:超級北極渦旋想更強,夏季系統想甦醒 - 颱風討論
By Olivia
at 2022-02-10T09:52
at 2022-02-10T09:52
Table of Contents
GFS和EC模式預報未來一週重大分歧,
1. GFS模式
北極渦旋無極限,中心百帕高度場再增強至14700米,異常強極渦事件開始,
南方天氣會:冷 -> 暖 -> 冷冷冷,
不過,
極渦中心短暫往靠往北極中心,又偏回北美側,再加上夏季系統嘗試甦醒,
因此,台灣高空成為冷暖角力場,除非:
(1). 超級北極渦旋跑往西伯利亞:
先前GFS預報了,北極渦旋中心跑到北亞側,台灣出現寒流。
但後來修正掉,
原因當然與中亞高空出現暖高壓入侵北極有關。
模式顯示,中亞高空的暖高壓沒有阻塞,反而順著西風帶東移,
並順勢往北亞到北極,再划向亞洲遠東半島。
由於暖高壓不強,對平流層的北極渦旋影響不算大,
但卻阻礙了東亞大槽的活躍,而北極渦旋中心也不會移往西伯利亞。
因此,
這個可能性可說是"無"。
(2). 夏季系統正式甦醒:EC傾向於此。
2. EC模式
印度半島的中南部,下週開始增溫,夏季系統開始嘗試甦醒,
長期預報EC模式甚至看好,下周末印度半島誕生第一個熱低壓,
如果順利建立,夏季系統就正式甦醒了。
夏季系統一甦醒,
南亞高空就出現反氣旋輻散場,更有利推擠青藏高原南側的西風南支槽往東移,
如此一來,
南支槽前的急流將帶來看強的印度洋暖濕氣團,華南雲雨帶一波接一波出現,
每次出現後,東南側相鄰的副高對應增強而帶上熱帶氣團,
於是,
南海到東海因副高增強轉偏南風北上,海陸溫差加大而在東亞沿海誕生溫帶氣旋,
溫帶氣旋的發展讓東亞的冷空氣加強南下,推動華南雲雨帶變成鋒面通過台灣。
由於,這種過程
南支槽前暖溼氣團 -> 華南雲雨帶 -> 副高增強 -> 東亞沿海溫帶氣旋 -> 冷鋒東移南下
最難預測的,
當然就是東亞沿海出現的溫帶氣旋,打亂了原本冷暖對峙的華南雲雨帶,
其次才是副高與南支槽間的角力(3月春季以後增多),
反之,
如果是東亞大槽活躍情況下,就是更單純的冬季系統絕對掌控天氣了。
因此,EC模式未來一週,在夏季系統嘗試甦醒的大氣形勢下,
南支槽的暖濕氣團與華南雲雨帶一波接一波出現,
東亞沿海的溫帶氣旋也一個一個出現東移,台灣天氣也冷暖交替,有春天的感覺。
結論:
在超強北極渦旋大環境下,最新模式北極渦旋中心未來一週趨勢仍偏在北美,
但EC與GFS最大差異就是南方大氣對夏季系統甦醒的看好度。
事實上,若以農曆來看已經春天,農曆來看(農曆過年後的)=>國曆的2、3、4月為春天。
春天是情感的季節,隨著夏季系統正式甦醒後,大氣高空交響樂已要開始彈奏了,
Do 唱歌兒快樂多
Re 就忘記眼淚
Mi 你真是太甜蜜
Fa 我有個辦法
So 快聽我對你說
La 把煩惱拋開啦
Si 從今後笑嘻嘻
唱起歌來快樂多
然而,
超級北極渦旋的高空空投與日照北移的地面增溫形成強烈衝突,
這個冬季以來太陽黑子活躍,南極夏季平流層強烈增溫,
反觀北極平流層永夜,沒有異常增溫事件發生;
因此,北極渦旋穩定的增強至超級渦旋。北極海冰狀況也呈現近年來最佳,
除了鄂霍次克海,
目前因北極渦旋停留北美太久,鄂霍次克海冰難以增加導致海冰狀況轉差。
由於短期內,北極渦旋仍不會移往北亞,
看來鄂霍次克海冰短期內不會改善,或許要到新冬季了。
(以上供參囉)
--
1. GFS模式
北極渦旋無極限,中心百帕高度場再增強至14700米,異常強極渦事件開始,
南方天氣會:冷 -> 暖 -> 冷冷冷,
不過,
極渦中心短暫往靠往北極中心,又偏回北美側,再加上夏季系統嘗試甦醒,
因此,台灣高空成為冷暖角力場,除非:
(1). 超級北極渦旋跑往西伯利亞:
先前GFS預報了,北極渦旋中心跑到北亞側,台灣出現寒流。
但後來修正掉,
原因當然與中亞高空出現暖高壓入侵北極有關。
模式顯示,中亞高空的暖高壓沒有阻塞,反而順著西風帶東移,
並順勢往北亞到北極,再划向亞洲遠東半島。
由於暖高壓不強,對平流層的北極渦旋影響不算大,
但卻阻礙了東亞大槽的活躍,而北極渦旋中心也不會移往西伯利亞。
因此,
這個可能性可說是"無"。
(2). 夏季系統正式甦醒:EC傾向於此。
2. EC模式
印度半島的中南部,下週開始增溫,夏季系統開始嘗試甦醒,
長期預報EC模式甚至看好,下周末印度半島誕生第一個熱低壓,
如果順利建立,夏季系統就正式甦醒了。
夏季系統一甦醒,
南亞高空就出現反氣旋輻散場,更有利推擠青藏高原南側的西風南支槽往東移,
如此一來,
南支槽前的急流將帶來看強的印度洋暖濕氣團,華南雲雨帶一波接一波出現,
每次出現後,東南側相鄰的副高對應增強而帶上熱帶氣團,
於是,
南海到東海因副高增強轉偏南風北上,海陸溫差加大而在東亞沿海誕生溫帶氣旋,
溫帶氣旋的發展讓東亞的冷空氣加強南下,推動華南雲雨帶變成鋒面通過台灣。
由於,這種過程
南支槽前暖溼氣團 -> 華南雲雨帶 -> 副高增強 -> 東亞沿海溫帶氣旋 -> 冷鋒東移南下
最難預測的,
當然就是東亞沿海出現的溫帶氣旋,打亂了原本冷暖對峙的華南雲雨帶,
其次才是副高與南支槽間的角力(3月春季以後增多),
反之,
如果是東亞大槽活躍情況下,就是更單純的冬季系統絕對掌控天氣了。
因此,EC模式未來一週,在夏季系統嘗試甦醒的大氣形勢下,
南支槽的暖濕氣團與華南雲雨帶一波接一波出現,
東亞沿海的溫帶氣旋也一個一個出現東移,台灣天氣也冷暖交替,有春天的感覺。
結論:
在超強北極渦旋大環境下,最新模式北極渦旋中心未來一週趨勢仍偏在北美,
但EC與GFS最大差異就是南方大氣對夏季系統甦醒的看好度。
事實上,若以農曆來看已經春天,農曆來看(農曆過年後的)=>國曆的2、3、4月為春天。
春天是情感的季節,隨著夏季系統正式甦醒後,大氣高空交響樂已要開始彈奏了,
Do 唱歌兒快樂多
Re 就忘記眼淚
Mi 你真是太甜蜜
Fa 我有個辦法
So 快聽我對你說
La 把煩惱拋開啦
Si 從今後笑嘻嘻
唱起歌來快樂多
然而,
超級北極渦旋的高空空投與日照北移的地面增溫形成強烈衝突,
這個冬季以來太陽黑子活躍,南極夏季平流層強烈增溫,
反觀北極平流層永夜,沒有異常增溫事件發生;
因此,北極渦旋穩定的增強至超級渦旋。北極海冰狀況也呈現近年來最佳,
除了鄂霍次克海,
目前因北極渦旋停留北美太久,鄂霍次克海冰難以增加導致海冰狀況轉差。
由於短期內,北極渦旋仍不會移往北亞,
看來鄂霍次克海冰短期內不會改善,或許要到新冬季了。
(以上供參囉)
--
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