天氣小觀:這時節竟...西北太平洋春颱共伴 - 颱風討論
By Dorothy
at 2021-04-18T18:49
at 2021-04-18T18:49
Table of Contents
天氣小觀:這時節竟...西北太平洋春颱共伴
春天是情感的季節,隨著音樂的旋律,大氣應該要上演的是高空秀,
然而,Oh! My God~~
今天天氣好似入秋,狂風陣陣,而且西太平洋竟然還上演了壓軸大氣地面秀:共伴秀!
東亞的地面冷高壓從長江口移出,
類東北季風與舒力基颱風的東南風共伴出一條長長雲雨帶,
春天的共伴環境比秋天差,
主要原因除了東北季風的不穩定以及太平洋高壓偏弱偏南,更重要的是少颱風,
可是呢,
今年2021大概是有生以來最特別的春天了,
西北太平洋的高溫距平,誕生了最高等級的超強颱風舒力基,
又那麼剛好,
東亞大槽轉為活躍,日本的大型溫帶氣旋讓冷高壓南下,
於是,
這兩天就變成了欣賞,這一南一北兩大氣旋的華麗大氣地面秀。
但到底春天高空環境變化快,因此,週二以後槽遠離日本,變成脊來,
只剩舒力基環流和類東北季風的地面場輻合降雨。
但無論是共伴還是輻合,對台灣來說,
雲雨帶都不在台灣上空,
也就是說不用擔心共伴/輻合強降雨,或者說,強降雨希望落空,
這並不令人意外,
因為這時節太平洋高壓太弱,根本無法導引共伴雲雨帶到台灣。
台灣的降雨主要是看舒力基颱風路徑西修後,
如果離台灣再近一點,
外圍環流進來就有機會讓中台灣和南台灣的高山攔下水氣降雨。
如果遠一點,降雨就會轉偏向東部。
台灣的春雨真正要期盼的還是大氣環境的轉變。
模式看來,舒力基颱風未來一週的路徑:
(1)
走在菲律賓中部近海,需要1天,
(2)
走在呂宋島近海,需要2天,
(3)
走到台灣東南方海面,需要三天。
(4)
遠離台灣、菲律賓,已經是一週尾聲了。
本週,
這種狂颱,除了北伴類東北季風外,南側也引進跨赤道西南風上來。
南印度洋/澳大利亞冷高壓吹出的東南風,跨過赤道匯入舒力基颱風環流,
一週後期,
舒力基颱風北上到台灣東南方,偏北風對南海影響力退至南海中北部,
於是澳大利亞冷高壓的東南風進入南海轉為西南風,
同時在中南半島熱低壓的加持下,南海南部的西南風加速成類西南季風,
令人不禁期待南海西南季風的爆發了。
但只是...南海西南季風爆發曲:
1. 潛熱加熱:中南半島熱低壓
2. 印度洋近赤道渦旋北移:這項比較麻煩,赤道~孟加拉灣還沒有穩定低壓渦漩
3. 南亞-南海副高斷裂:舒力基颱風幫忙,已經斷裂啦
4. 孟加拉灣Rossby波東傳:
5. 太平洋高壓東退
6. 南海西南季風爆發
因此,
本週後期南海南部的類西南季風要接上真正的全面南海西南季風爆發,
不是容易的事,等不到孟加拉灣渦旋就怕太平洋高壓又西伸,
時間還久需要觀察。
如果,不期待南海西南季風爆發,那一週尾聲舒力基颱風東移後,
南支槽立刻跟著東移,華南雲雨帶來到台灣可期。
由於南支槽不比東亞大槽來的強大,
因此冷暖大戰在台灣的降雨時間也會比一般的冷鋒過境不同,
全台灣都有機會降雨。
結論:
1. 期待大氣環境轉變至南海西南季風爆發 (有難度)
2. 期待一週尾聲,喜迎華南鋒面雨。
(以上供參囉)
--
春天是情感的季節,隨著音樂的旋律,大氣應該要上演的是高空秀,
然而,Oh! My God~~
今天天氣好似入秋,狂風陣陣,而且西太平洋竟然還上演了壓軸大氣地面秀:共伴秀!
東亞的地面冷高壓從長江口移出,
類東北季風與舒力基颱風的東南風共伴出一條長長雲雨帶,
春天的共伴環境比秋天差,
主要原因除了東北季風的不穩定以及太平洋高壓偏弱偏南,更重要的是少颱風,
可是呢,
今年2021大概是有生以來最特別的春天了,
西北太平洋的高溫距平,誕生了最高等級的超強颱風舒力基,
又那麼剛好,
東亞大槽轉為活躍,日本的大型溫帶氣旋讓冷高壓南下,
於是,
這兩天就變成了欣賞,這一南一北兩大氣旋的華麗大氣地面秀。
但到底春天高空環境變化快,因此,週二以後槽遠離日本,變成脊來,
只剩舒力基環流和類東北季風的地面場輻合降雨。
但無論是共伴還是輻合,對台灣來說,
雲雨帶都不在台灣上空,
也就是說不用擔心共伴/輻合強降雨,或者說,強降雨希望落空,
這並不令人意外,
因為這時節太平洋高壓太弱,根本無法導引共伴雲雨帶到台灣。
台灣的降雨主要是看舒力基颱風路徑西修後,
如果離台灣再近一點,
外圍環流進來就有機會讓中台灣和南台灣的高山攔下水氣降雨。
如果遠一點,降雨就會轉偏向東部。
台灣的春雨真正要期盼的還是大氣環境的轉變。
模式看來,舒力基颱風未來一週的路徑:
(1)
走在菲律賓中部近海,需要1天,
(2)
走在呂宋島近海,需要2天,
(3)
走到台灣東南方海面,需要三天。
(4)
遠離台灣、菲律賓,已經是一週尾聲了。
本週,
這種狂颱,除了北伴類東北季風外,南側也引進跨赤道西南風上來。
南印度洋/澳大利亞冷高壓吹出的東南風,跨過赤道匯入舒力基颱風環流,
一週後期,
舒力基颱風北上到台灣東南方,偏北風對南海影響力退至南海中北部,
於是澳大利亞冷高壓的東南風進入南海轉為西南風,
同時在中南半島熱低壓的加持下,南海南部的西南風加速成類西南季風,
令人不禁期待南海西南季風的爆發了。
但只是...南海西南季風爆發曲:
1. 潛熱加熱:中南半島熱低壓
2. 印度洋近赤道渦旋北移:這項比較麻煩,赤道~孟加拉灣還沒有穩定低壓渦漩
3. 南亞-南海副高斷裂:舒力基颱風幫忙,已經斷裂啦
4. 孟加拉灣Rossby波東傳:
5. 太平洋高壓東退
6. 南海西南季風爆發
因此,
本週後期南海南部的類西南季風要接上真正的全面南海西南季風爆發,
不是容易的事,等不到孟加拉灣渦旋就怕太平洋高壓又西伸,
時間還久需要觀察。
如果,不期待南海西南季風爆發,那一週尾聲舒力基颱風東移後,
南支槽立刻跟著東移,華南雲雨帶來到台灣可期。
由於南支槽不比東亞大槽來的強大,
因此冷暖大戰在台灣的降雨時間也會比一般的冷鋒過境不同,
全台灣都有機會降雨。
結論:
1. 期待大氣環境轉變至南海西南季風爆發 (有難度)
2. 期待一週尾聲,喜迎華南鋒面雨。
(以上供參囉)
--
Tags:
颱風
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