天氣小觀:週五起,冷高壓南下輻合雷伊颱風 - 颱風討論
By Zanna
at 2021-12-15T22:57
at 2021-12-15T22:57
Table of Contents
盛夏有南亞挑戰50度,隆冬有北亞挑戰零下50度
模式預報,西伯利亞部分地區未來一周要邁向零下45度了;
果然,越接近最大永夜冬至,極地的冷凍氣團就更不可一世了。
反觀南方,
今天台北台中還有27度,高雄26度。
原因當然是目前東亞高空西風帶平直,
西風橫槽還在西伯利亞,週五才會轉直南壓。
地面堆積的冷高壓也要週五以後才會南下,
然而,
這次南下的地面冷高壓將輻合到南方的雷伊颱風,
類似秋颱的共伴效應,
當然了,
這季節冷高壓勢力強大,
冬颱地面場的共伴最大影響是呂宋島東北部,而不是台灣東北部;
台灣東北部主要是冷高壓的東北季風地形雨。
從模式預報來看,
週五,雷伊颱風通過菲律賓,蒙古冷高壓/西北冷高壓南下,東北季風增強。
由於雷伊颱風的關係,東北季風不是普通的強烈,
冷空氣更是大舉南下,周六周日看來又要挑戰冷氣團了。
周一以後,冷高壓出海轉偏南風,把原本南方水氣往台灣帶,
屆時就要看副高情況了,除了影響雷伊颱風轉北路徑,也影響台灣降雨分布。
有趣的是,
歐洲預報認為,
由於先強冷空氣南下後,一轉東南風時,冷暖相遇,反而有小小溫帶氣旋的擾動。
到時再觀察了
(簡單說說囉)
--
模式預報,西伯利亞部分地區未來一周要邁向零下45度了;
果然,越接近最大永夜冬至,極地的冷凍氣團就更不可一世了。
反觀南方,
今天台北台中還有27度,高雄26度。
原因當然是目前東亞高空西風帶平直,
西風橫槽還在西伯利亞,週五才會轉直南壓。
地面堆積的冷高壓也要週五以後才會南下,
然而,
這次南下的地面冷高壓將輻合到南方的雷伊颱風,
類似秋颱的共伴效應,
當然了,
這季節冷高壓勢力強大,
冬颱地面場的共伴最大影響是呂宋島東北部,而不是台灣東北部;
台灣東北部主要是冷高壓的東北季風地形雨。
從模式預報來看,
週五,雷伊颱風通過菲律賓,蒙古冷高壓/西北冷高壓南下,東北季風增強。
由於雷伊颱風的關係,東北季風不是普通的強烈,
冷空氣更是大舉南下,周六周日看來又要挑戰冷氣團了。
周一以後,冷高壓出海轉偏南風,把原本南方水氣往台灣帶,
屆時就要看副高情況了,除了影響雷伊颱風轉北路徑,也影響台灣降雨分布。
有趣的是,
歐洲預報認為,
由於先強冷空氣南下後,一轉東南風時,冷暖相遇,反而有小小溫帶氣旋的擾動。
到時再觀察了
(簡單說說囉)
--
Tags:
颱風
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