天氣小觀：週日起冷氣團三天 - 颱風討論

By Selena
at 2023-01-12T20:20

Table of Contents

未來一週北極渦旋號令冬季系統大舉鄂霍次克海，
此次，侵襲鄂霍次克海的冷高壓來自北亞冷高壓，
北亞冷高壓與蒙古冷高壓之間存在零下10幾度的相對暖低壓區；
當北亞冷高壓南下時，暖低壓區向東移至白令海發展成強烈溫帶氣旋，
使得極地氣團大舉進擊鄂霍次克海。

至於南方台灣，
這波南下東亞的是西北冷高壓與蒙古冷高壓互相連結後，勢力向南擴展，
使原本冷高壓的冷舌，變成雙重冷高壓的的寒潮，
西北冷高壓來自中亞寒潮爆發後東移，
蒙古冷高壓來自西伯利亞冷高壓分支南下，
兩股勢力都不弱，在天時地利的連結後，擴展勢力對台灣是一次冷氣團侵襲。

至於長期模式來看寒流，北極渦旋沒有異常強，但似乎偏愛北亞，
因此，就要看500百帕的西風槽怎麼伸展了，
變數還很大囉

(以上上供參)

--

Tags: 颱風

All Comments

By Oliver
at 2023-01-13T06:42

頭

By Iris
at 2023-01-13T17:05

推
二

By Thomas
at 2023-01-14T03:28

冷

By Anonymous
at 2023-01-14T13:51

5推

By Rae
at 2023-01-15T00:14

六推

By Irma
at 2023-01-15T10:37

7749

By Linda
at 2023-01-15T21:00

推

By Hazel
at 2023-01-16T07:23

終於又要冷了推

By Sierra Rose
at 2023-01-16T17:45

希望宜蘭不要再天天下雨了..

By Emma
at 2023-01-17T04:08

快來拉低一月均溫吧

By Carol
at 2023-01-17T14:31

來囉，過年前讓人抖一下

By John
at 2023-01-18T00:54

D大上上下下

By Annie
at 2023-01-18T11:17

這幾天突然覺得南部目前的溫度頗舒服...可能前陣子
太冷了...（被拖走

By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2023-01-18T21:40

冷氣團以為有寒流XD
不知道過年初一天氣如何?

By Elma
at 2023-01-19T08:03

推推

By Eden
at 2023-01-19T18:25

就說本週末-下週的寒流泡湯了吧每次延後都變不見

By Candice
at 2023-01-20T04:48

看起來這波還是有摸強冷機會，有摸到的話，就也不會
差太多

By Poppy
at 2023-01-20T15:11

預報12度還好只要是前一天熱爆可能會讓長輩

By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2023-01-21T01:34

主要是

By Dora
at 2023-01-21T11:57

冷+雨+風大這才是要老命

By Bennie
at 2023-01-21T22:20

推

By Poppy
at 2023-01-22T08:43

來個有寒流的農曆年吧

By Hazel
at 2023-01-22T19:06

今天中午的太陽好熱

By Quintina
at 2023-01-23T05:28

本來就不是什麼有利強冷空氣南下的大氣配置，修掉不
意外吧

By Rachel
at 2023-01-23T15:51

台北來到27度今天是春暖花開的日子

By Christine
at 2023-01-24T02:14

永康和高雄飆到28~29度了,不過今天濃霧苦主換成桃

By Lauren
at 2023-01-24T12:37

機

By Steve
at 2023-01-24T23:00

高雄部分地區30度了

By Zenobia
at 2023-01-25T09:23

北海道一堆地方又破1月高溫紀錄了

By Andy
at 2023-01-25T19:46

看EC的預報，過年期間的氣溫會比較涼爽

By Genevieve
at 2023-01-26T06:08

今天台北算秋老虎還是冬老虎

By Ophelia
at 2023-01-26T16:31

冬老虎都到28

By Emma
at 2023-01-26T08:13

台北真的28了

By Tom
at 2023-01-26T18:35

開冷氣中

By Ethan
at 2023-01-26T08:13

好熱...

By Brianna
at 2023-01-26T18:35

下週有機會挑戰冷氣團喇！

By Mia
at 2023-01-26T08:13

春節連假期間還是有挑戰寒流的機率 EC中長期的烏拉
山深厚暖脊一路向東崩潰帶出一波西風橫槽轉豎的大
槽南壓

By Joseph
at 2023-01-26T18:35

過年一定要濕冷？

By Bennie
at 2023-01-26T08:13

過年期間長達十天有幾天碰到冷氣團應該也不意外

By Carol
at 2023-01-26T18:35

除了長達十天，加上一月中下旬本來就是最冷的時期

By Hedwig
at 2023-01-26T08:13

札幌今天最高溫7.6度近九年來一月最高溫

By Rosalind
at 2023-01-26T18:35

不只台灣熱今天日本很多地方破史上一月最高溫

By Kelly
at 2023-01-26T08:13

https://i.imgur.com/NuX8wt5.jpg

By Gary
at 2023-01-26T18:35

https://i.imgur.com/DTiXEWb.jpg

By Connor
at 2023-01-26T08:13

https://i.imgur.com/DMA2O6s.jpg

By Elvira
at 2023-01-26T18:35

盛岡市睽違21年1月份高溫能達10度

By George
at 2023-01-26T08:13

大谷翔平故鄉岩手花卷今天高溫10.3度史上一月最高

By Ina
at 2023-01-26T18:35

春節連假還有可能偏濕和MJO濕區進入印度洋有關再
觀察

By Mason
at 2023-01-26T08:13

暖起來讚

By Lily
at 2023-01-26T18:35

MJO對流到東印度洋後水氣會上飄至副熱帶噴流

By Lily
at 2023-01-26T08:13

再往東傳送到華南確實有轉濕可能

By Tracy
at 2023-01-26T18:35

至少一段時間內看不到像這幾天一樣的高溫訊號

By Victoria
at 2023-01-26T08:13

不過MJO第三週預報變動大，繼續觀察

By Kama
at 2023-01-26T18:35

高溫導致羊蹄山雪崩了

By Iris
at 2023-01-26T08:13

下午看馬祖港口直播,馬祖已經下雨了

By Edward Lewis
at 2023-01-26T18:35

25號沖繩預報10度很少見...

By Sandy
at 2023-01-26T08:13

不過還有快兩週先看看

By Isla
at 2023-01-26T18:35

https://i.imgur.com/k5n2qlS.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/oc5wjoX.jpg

By Isla
at 2023-01-26T08:13

希望過年冷一點寒流最好冷氣團也可以

By Xanthe
at 2023-01-26T18:35

有機會挑戰強烈大陸冷氣團

By Tracy
at 2023-01-26T08:13

看來只有北部冷啊中南部無感

By Joe
at 2023-01-26T18:35

禮拜日的冷空氣比較潮濕，強冷達標機率是蠻高的

By Skylar Davis
at 2023-01-26T08:13

至於會不會的不小心摸到新制寒流就看看了

By Faithe
at 2023-01-26T18:35

年假來看幾乎都是冷空氣的影響，有強有弱
北北基宜比較偏濕

By Genevieve
at 2023-01-26T08:13

這波中南部無感？？？在講什麼幹話？？？

By Odelette
at 2023-01-26T18:35

這幾天台北酷熱是因為副高北抬嗎？

By Doris
at 2023-01-26T08:13

這兩天吹東南風～南風比較暖熱

By Joseph
at 2023-01-26T18:35

南部空氣難得綠燈

By Yedda
at 2023-01-26T08:13

13度濕冷也是滿刺骨的

By Hedwig
at 2023-01-26T18:35

南部這天氣剛好，不會熱

By Isabella
at 2023-01-26T08:13

好熱阿... 可以開冷氣惹

By Edwina
at 2023-01-26T18:35

明天涼後天冷替三高長輩擔心

By Catherine
at 2023-01-26T08:13

副高像貓咪一樣拱背頂到台灣難怪熱呼呼

By Regina
at 2023-01-26T18:35

cat cow多做有益身心（誤

By Callum
at 2023-01-26T08:13

預報有說過年北部可能偏涼不過時間還久不能確定

By Yedda
at 2023-01-26T18:35

才過一天溫度就修掉了

By Rosalind
at 2023-01-26T08:13

等下禮拜預報再看

By Christine
at 2023-01-26T18:35

春節連假中期貌似有一波強的冷空氣強度待觀察

By Sierra Rose
at 2023-01-26T08:13

明天台北此時可能只有13、14度今明兩天溫差之大
三高族群和老年人真的要好好注意

By Charlie
at 2023-01-26T18:35

EC和GFS都有模擬出農曆年間轉乾冷寒流…尚待觀察

By Anthony
at 2023-01-26T08:13

乾冷也不錯濕冷就不必了

By Steve
at 2023-01-26T18:35

槽前暖區有夠熱…

By Dinah
at 2023-01-26T08:13

寒流前的濕冷還是有可能大槽擺正須要時間

By Megan
at 2023-01-26T18:35

24~25號應該會冷吧

By Hedy
at 2023-01-26T08:13

與那國那邊 25號低溫預報有8度不過就先看看吧

By Ingrid
at 2023-01-26T18:35

昨天看預報台中會下雨結果到現在都還是大太陽...

By Hedwig
at 2023-01-26T08:13

現在台北豪熱阿

By Charlotte
at 2023-01-26T18:35

24-25還太早，兩周前也是預報明天是寒流啊，結果現
在只剩冷氣團

By Mary
at 2023-01-26T08:13

冷空氣到了嗎風有一點涼

By John
at 2023-01-26T18:35

https://i.imgur.com/QFa442b.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/fqTYl1I.jpg

By Carol
at 2023-01-26T08:13

明後天的冷空氣其實有稍微調強，強冷以上的機會蠻
大的

By Hamiltion
at 2023-01-26T18:35

冷空氣才到杭州，連福建都還沒到，預計2000才到馬祖
應該是明天清晨到臺北

By Adele
at 2023-01-26T08:13

已經邁入10日報加上兩大機構有初步共識就代表有強
冷空氣南下的機會

By Robert
at 2023-01-26T18:35

目前看GFS EC報出來23 24的配置是有利冷空氣南下的
配置
中亞的阻塞高壓崩潰帶動東亞大槽在韓國的轉豎

By Harry
at 2023-01-26T08:13

對流層的極渦看起來有受到MJO東傳的影響使得北半球
的波數降低至2的趨勢

By Suhail Hany
at 2023-01-26T18:35

這幾天還以為回到夏天了

By Susan
at 2023-01-26T08:13

東亞大槽在韓國轉直對於台灣來說就是正衝…得多多

By Jake
at 2023-01-26T18:35

觀察

By Dora
at 2023-01-26T08:13

冬天回到常軌終於突然熱起來真的不舒服又詭異

By Olive
at 2023-01-26T18:35

馬祖開始吹北風降溫

By Mary
at 2023-01-26T08:13

EC00Z認為會涼爽到25日，李主播看來是預測成功

By Agatha
at 2023-01-26T18:35

之前李預測還說他太誇張目前看蠻準

By Sandy
at 2023-01-26T08:13

偶爾運氣好中幾次而已吧

By Emma
at 2023-01-26T18:35

推k板主

By Erin
at 2023-01-26T08:13

冷空氣大概晚上九點前後抵達北部吧

By Ethan
at 2023-01-26T18:35

等彭佳嶼降溫後就差不多快了

By Jacky
at 2023-01-26T08:13

李這次預測也是運氣好？那這樣其他民間機構的預測
講中就直接視為運氣好就好啦畢竟不是官方預報咩

By Charlotte
at 2023-01-26T18:35

在最冷的一月下旬預測會寒冷，說中了有什麼好說嘴
的

By Edward Lewis
at 2023-01-26T08:13

事實上數值模式很早就跑出來一月下旬有冷的訊號，
差別只是時間還久，大家保守，李就很篤定說出來而
已，跟版上aitt大不是一樣

By Elvira
at 2023-01-26T18:35

奈格爆對流,OMG,奈格結構大進步! XD

By James
at 2023-01-26T08:13

北海岸有對流產生

By Frederica
at 2023-01-26T18:35

菲東長不出東西，看來只能期待秋涼，台灣風季掰掰 l

By Audriana
at 2023-01-26T08:13

桃園沿海濃霧中

By Aaliyah
at 2023-01-26T18:35

會講李伯伯預報準的，要嘛看他預報的經驗沒很長，要
嘛忠實粉絲吧，我看他預報十幾年了，只能說查任伯伯

By Frederica
at 2023-01-26T08:13

差太多了
差

By Yedda
at 2023-01-26T18:35

蘆洲下雨了

By Doris
at 2023-01-26T08:13

臺灣風季要等六月了

By Aaliyah
at 2023-01-26T18:35

只是菲律賓中部群島和南部民答那峨，已經因低壓造成

By Bethany
at 2023-01-26T08:13

數十人死亡或失縱，雖然這低壓是一盤散沙難發展。

By Tristan Cohan
at 2023-01-26T18:35

下週菲律賓仍然會受到擾動影響，有很大機會影響到月
底

By Faithe
at 2023-01-26T08:13

噴雨啦

By Ophelia
at 2023-01-26T18:35

風向一變北部降雨回波就出現

By Oscar
at 2023-01-26T08:13

今天去北海岸沙灘玩水、走步道，整個很適合的天氣

By Daph Bay
at 2023-01-26T18:35

已經滿足了，不然今年冬天幾乎一直下雨、整個爛

By Charlotte
at 2023-01-26T08:13

還好有今天的冬老虎，不然下次要去踏浪不知何時了

By Queena
at 2023-01-26T18:35

冬天已經結束，可以開始穿短袖開冷氣了，今天上班熱
到頭暈

By Valerie
at 2023-01-26T08:13

可惜我家沒有冷氣，只能電風扇對吹，桃園再也不會低
於15度了到11月為止，幹你娘太熱了

By Elizabeth
at 2023-01-26T18:35

誰跟你冬天結束了

By Tristan Cohan
at 2023-01-26T08:13

基隆下雨了

By Madame
at 2023-01-26T18:35

下次去踏浪就夏天啊在說什麼

By Bethany
at 2023-01-26T08:13

一月中說冬天結束了是在供三小

By Hedwig
at 2023-01-26T18:35

冬天哪裡結束了???

By Isabella
at 2023-01-26T08:13

下雨降溫了冷氣準備收起來了

By Oliver
at 2023-01-26T18:35

北部也開始在降溫了

By Delia
at 2023-01-26T08:13

初三首爾給到-19度，感覺有戲

By John
at 2023-01-26T18:35

爆

By Quanna
at 2023-01-26T08:13

台中太陽出來又熱了真是

By Gary
at 2023-01-26T18:35

樓上不用兩篇文都留一樣的吧

By Hedy
at 2023-01-26T08:13

不爽嗎

By Leila
at 2023-01-26T18:35

就單純沒什麼意義吧

By Olive
at 2023-01-26T08:13

The 兇哦 XD

By Annie
at 2023-01-26T18:35

也就幾天熱而以晚上你還繼續開冷氣再說

By Steve
at 2023-01-26T08:13

要穿短袖開冷氣那也是你個人比較怕熱不需要特別講

By George
at 2023-01-26T18:35

3高肥胖的人真的很不怕熱

天氣小觀：週日起冷氣團三天 - 颱風討論

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