日本神準預測 專家曝氣象廳預算比台多6倍 - 颱風討論
By Doris
at 2021-09-14T15:25
at 2021-09-14T15:25
Table of Contents
日本神準預測璨樹路徑!專家曝「氣象廳預算達139億」:比台多6倍
ETTODAY
2021年09月14日 15:20
記者李宜秦/台北報導
今年第14號颱風璨樹遠離,在璨樹剛生成的時期,各國對於璨樹路徑預報有極大分歧性,
最後是日本氣象廳的預測最為準確。氣象專家彭啟明指出,日本氣象廳每年預算高達新台
幣139億元,是台灣氣象局的6倍以上,因此本次颱風路徑預測關鍵點都有即時預測成功。
璨樹颱風路徑變化大,氣象局從一開始的往南偏的路徑,到後來不斷往北修正颱風路徑,
甚至颱風提早北轉,改從東南部沿海北上,而非從西南方或南端陸地侵台。受到太平洋高
壓東退與季風槽等影響,各國在預測璨樹路徑時有極大分歧性,其中以日本氣象廳的預測
最為準確。
彭啟明分析,本次日本氣象廳確實有提早預測到幾個路徑關鍵點,也較他國預測速度更快
,雖然日本氣象廳在近幾年的表現的確不錯,但是單一事件無法保證一切,通常用一整年
整個颱風季來看,各國表現並不會差異太大,台灣不需要妄自菲薄。
彭啟明指出,日本氣象廳一年預算是 550億日幣,相當於139億台幣,是太彎氣象局的六
倍以上,極端天災越來越多下,各國為了保障民眾,當然氣象軍備競賽在所難免。預算多
不見得會更準確,但沒有預算,很難抗衡。
而日本韓國或美國的氣象單位,有明確的產官學分野,許多民間氣象產業幫了很多忙,台
灣的氣象局在長官、民代的要求下,做了很多民間可以發揮的事,他坦言,「我覺得氣象
局的播報,現在比電視台氣象主播的設備都來得好,這在各國都是少見的」。
https://www.ettoday.net/news/20210914/2079301.htm
心得:台灣的氣象預報也很厲害吧?
不曉得未來能不能提升台灣氣象的預算,來加強準確率?
世界上預測最準的不曉得是哪個國家
接下來台灣還會有颱風嗎?希望颱風今年不要再來了
--
ETTODAY
2021年09月14日 15:20
記者李宜秦/台北報導
今年第14號颱風璨樹遠離,在璨樹剛生成的時期,各國對於璨樹路徑預報有極大分歧性,
最後是日本氣象廳的預測最為準確。氣象專家彭啟明指出,日本氣象廳每年預算高達新台
幣139億元,是台灣氣象局的6倍以上,因此本次颱風路徑預測關鍵點都有即時預測成功。
璨樹颱風路徑變化大,氣象局從一開始的往南偏的路徑,到後來不斷往北修正颱風路徑,
甚至颱風提早北轉,改從東南部沿海北上,而非從西南方或南端陸地侵台。受到太平洋高
壓東退與季風槽等影響,各國在預測璨樹路徑時有極大分歧性,其中以日本氣象廳的預測
最為準確。
彭啟明分析,本次日本氣象廳確實有提早預測到幾個路徑關鍵點,也較他國預測速度更快
,雖然日本氣象廳在近幾年的表現的確不錯,但是單一事件無法保證一切,通常用一整年
整個颱風季來看,各國表現並不會差異太大,台灣不需要妄自菲薄。
彭啟明指出,日本氣象廳一年預算是 550億日幣,相當於139億台幣,是太彎氣象局的六
倍以上,極端天災越來越多下,各國為了保障民眾,當然氣象軍備競賽在所難免。預算多
不見得會更準確,但沒有預算,很難抗衡。
而日本韓國或美國的氣象單位,有明確的產官學分野,許多民間氣象產業幫了很多忙,台
灣的氣象局在長官、民代的要求下,做了很多民間可以發揮的事,他坦言,「我覺得氣象
局的播報,現在比電視台氣象主播的設備都來得好,這在各國都是少見的」。
https://www.ettoday.net/news/20210914/2079301.htm
心得:台灣的氣象預報也很厲害吧?
不曉得未來能不能提升台灣氣象的預算,來加強準確率?
世界上預測最準的不曉得是哪個國家
接下來台灣還會有颱風嗎?希望颱風今年不要再來了
--
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