熱帶風暴Ida - 颱風討論

Ida快速增強,己經達到颶風等級,目前強度為70KTS,約

中颱下限。

https://i.imgur.com/lRUIplm.gif

https://i.imgur.com/pv0sexe.gif

墨西哥灣的高海溫、潮濕空氣和低風切十分有利於Ida發展

Ida很有可能在登陸之前增強至120KTS,約中颱上限的強度。

另外,Ida的風場也將持續擴大。

海溫圖:https://i.imgur.com/LIRGary.png

風切圖:https://i.imgur.com/4WCRaXK.gif

輻散圖:https://i.imgur.com/PdDnnk0.gif

The upper-level outflow has expanded over all but the southwestern
portion of the circulation, and the upper-level wind pattern is
forecast to continue to improve overnight and early Saturday.
Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, it will be moving throu
gh a very favorable oceanic and
atmospheric environment consisting of high ocean heat content
waters, low vertical wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level
atmosphere. These conditions are likely to result in a period
of rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. In fact,
with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has
significantly increased this cycle, and the bulk of the guidance
now brings Ida to category 4 intensity. The NHC forecast explicitly
calls for rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours,
which is supported by several of the dynamical models, the LGEM
model, and high probabilities of rapid intensification indicated
by the SHIPS and DTOPS RI guidance. The NHC forecast is near
the IVCN multi-model consensus aid, but is lower than HCCA and
LGEM. It should be noted that some fluctuations in intensity are
possible as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast due to possible
eyewall replacement cycles. In addition to the expected increase in
strength, the dynamical model guidance again calls for Ida's wind
field to expand while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. As a
result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a large and
powerful hurricane will impact portions of the northern Gulf coast
by late this weekend and early next week.



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