Mud in Malaysia - 馬來西亞

By Philip Bowring
International Herald Tribune
Tuesday, July 1, 2008

KUALA LUMPUR: in Malaysia

In the aftermath of elections in March that resulted in huge losses for the
ruling United Malays National Organization and its coalition partners, the
struggle for power in Malaysia has become more vicious and the outcome less
certain.

It is drawing rapt attention not only from Malaysia's politically-engaged
masses but also from foreign investors and neighbors fascinated by Malaysia's
curious blend of democracy, pluralism and authoritarianism.

The battle is over who, if anyone, will succeed Prime Minister Abdullah
Ahmad Badawi, who is under pressure to quit after the election setback. But
the more mud that is thrown, the more it appears that Abdullah may be the
best man for the job after all.

The four most likely alternatives are the opposition leader and former
Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim; Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak;
former Finance Minister Razaleigh Hamzah, and Muhyiddin Yassin, minister of
international trade.

New sodomy allegations lodged against Anwar, who was sacked and jailed under
former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad on similar charges that were later
thrown out, are hampering his efforts to return to Parliament and stake his
claim to leadership.

The charges have the mark of desperation, not so much on the part of
Abdullah, but on others in the party hierarchy. They follow potentially even
more damaging allegations a week earlier against Najib, the heir apparent to
Abdullah, relating to events surrounding the murder of a Mongolian translator
and model. A close associate of Najib and two members of a leaders' security
squad answerable to him are now on trial.

On the face of things, Abdullah is very weak. Rising petrol prices have
naturally been unpopular in an oil-producing nation where car ownership is
relatively high and public transport abysmal.

He has discussed handing over the reins to his deputy at some future, but
unspecified, date. He still carries much of the blame for the election
failure, which provided an opening for United Malays National Organization
critics led by Mahathir, even though the result reflected the disappointment
of those who expected Abdullah to reform a system corrupted by Mahathir's 22
years in office.

But there are signs that many who voted for the opposition in March are more
likely to return to United Malays National Organization (UMNO), with Abdullah
in charge. That is a reality that UMNO local leaders must face even though
many resent his modest efforts to rein in the patronage system.

Abdullah, a man often accused of being asleep at the wheel, has recently
been taking risks, helped by some new, straight-talking, independent-minded
ministers.

The fuel price rise was one. Another has been the rehabilitation of judges
sacked by Mahathir, part of a broader effort to clean up the judiciary and
make government more transparent.

Abdullah will never have the charisma or the crowd-pulling appeal of Anwar,
but even without the new allegations, Anwar had no easy route back to the
top. The former deputy prime minister is as distrusted as an opportunist as
he is admired for his charm and eloquence.

On the one hand, Anwar needs to appear a principled leader of a disparate
opposition coalition. On the other, he must try to induce members of the
governing coalition to defect.

He must also keep an eye on the possibility of rejoining UMNO as the savior
who will lead many Malays back to its fold. Although the sodomy allegations
are widely seen as a political gambit, they underline what a divisive figure
he has become.

Of the possible current UMNO contenders for the top job, Najib is shadowed
by proximity to the sex and murder scandal. The trial of the alleged
murderers has itself been subject to some bizarre legal twists. This issue
may eventually go away but probably not before December when UMNO meets to
decide its leadership.

Razaleigh, 71, once had great stature but is little known to younger
members, having been out of office since 1987. Muhyiddin is competent but
unlikely to inspire so could probably only succeed if Abdullah implodes by
December.

That is always possible. With five months to go, UMNO and its allies are
alive with name-calling and the public is worried about inflation.

But Abdullah may find that if he stands his ground, continues to make bold
decisions and shows that the UMNO-led coalition under his leadership
represents racial and religious moderation and an open society, the UMNO
delegates will come to see what many others already see: He is the best and
least controversial prime minister currently available.

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