天氣小觀:1+1+1個冷高壓南下 - 颱風討論
By William
at 2021-10-17T07:42
at 2021-10-17T07:42
Table of Contents
秋季西風大槽轉直南壓時,都是在東亞沿海探底(槽底),
因為再往東是秋季太平洋高壓勢力。
而,
冬季西風大槽轉直則可以在西北太平洋探底。
這也是為何冬季有時冷氣團衝歪。
而秋季,除非颱風干擾之外,
冷空氣南下一定往東亞、台灣而來,不會衝歪;
然而,
秋季海溫高,地面秀氣旋多,冷空氣南下的存在許多變數。
例如,
模式預報一周尾聲菲律賓東南方有氣旋擾動。
這麼一來,隨著擾動發展勢必影響北側的太平洋高壓勢力。
由於這次冬季系統的進攻,
模式顯示,
西風帶南移讓太平洋高壓脊退往北緯20度,
北側勢力讓到北緯25度左右,呈現帶狀分布;
但未來氣旋擾動的形成與發展則會讓太平洋高壓分裂一東一西,
這表示,
原先東亞大槽穩定壓制太平洋高壓勢力場,
隨著氣旋發展的熱帶低壓波動,
太平洋高壓分裂雙體後,大氣中層西風急流又開始震盪而且略為北退。
因此,
一周過後的重點又回到秋季地面氣旋秀。
目前,東北季風南下後,昨天入夜後北宜桃都出現雨勢,
然而,今天500百帕的西風急流才會壓到東海,
北台灣上空今晚才會有較明顯的西風帶氣流,
這就是秋季大氣環境,
地面有東北季風勢如破竹,高空太平洋高壓勢力還要問問;
但這次太平洋高壓的確不敵,
於是太平洋高壓從東海南退後,重新駐守在巴士海峽。
第1個冷高壓明起出海,第2個冷高壓後天南下;
第2個看起來是第3個冷高壓的先鋒,因此強度不強,
但有第1個冷高壓的基礎,北台灣不會轉熱,南臺灣也小熱而已。
重點就是第3個冷高壓,太平洋高壓呈現帶狀駐守巴士海峽後,
500百帕西風急流從華南過來,且太平洋高壓西側帶上印度洋水氣;
冷暖對峙的大氣環境,隨著第3個冷高壓南下,來到北台灣上空。
因此,模式顯示週四下半天開始北部、東北部就多雨了。
當然,雖然冬季系統想創造冬季大環境,東北季風直吹彷彿入冬地形雨。
但,
秋季還是多氣旋,一週尾聲氣旋擾動一出現,
太平洋高壓分裂,西風帶震盪,
情況就有變化了,再觀察囉。
以古觀之氣象,
金水-冬季系統,來了水木-氣旋擾動,
於是,
木生火,木火-夏季系統把內力聚集在火-太平洋高壓了。
如此一來就看新一輪的大氣環境了。
(西風帶系統引西方金氣,太平洋高壓引南方火氣,火剋金,金耗火,兩氣互沖)
但無論大氣環境如何,秋季真正來到,
秋天是文學的季節,也常令人感嘆一寸光陰一寸金:
(宋‧朱熹‧《偶成》)
少年易學老難成,一寸光陰不可輕。
未覺池塘春草夢,階前梧葉已秋聲。
(以上供參囉)
--
因為再往東是秋季太平洋高壓勢力。
而,
冬季西風大槽轉直則可以在西北太平洋探底。
這也是為何冬季有時冷氣團衝歪。
而秋季,除非颱風干擾之外,
冷空氣南下一定往東亞、台灣而來,不會衝歪;
然而,
秋季海溫高,地面秀氣旋多,冷空氣南下的存在許多變數。
例如,
模式預報一周尾聲菲律賓東南方有氣旋擾動。
這麼一來,隨著擾動發展勢必影響北側的太平洋高壓勢力。
由於這次冬季系統的進攻,
模式顯示,
西風帶南移讓太平洋高壓脊退往北緯20度,
北側勢力讓到北緯25度左右,呈現帶狀分布;
但未來氣旋擾動的形成與發展則會讓太平洋高壓分裂一東一西,
這表示,
原先東亞大槽穩定壓制太平洋高壓勢力場,
隨著氣旋發展的熱帶低壓波動,
太平洋高壓分裂雙體後,大氣中層西風急流又開始震盪而且略為北退。
因此,
一周過後的重點又回到秋季地面氣旋秀。
目前,東北季風南下後,昨天入夜後北宜桃都出現雨勢,
然而,今天500百帕的西風急流才會壓到東海,
北台灣上空今晚才會有較明顯的西風帶氣流,
這就是秋季大氣環境,
地面有東北季風勢如破竹,高空太平洋高壓勢力還要問問;
但這次太平洋高壓的確不敵,
於是太平洋高壓從東海南退後,重新駐守在巴士海峽。
第1個冷高壓明起出海,第2個冷高壓後天南下;
第2個看起來是第3個冷高壓的先鋒,因此強度不強,
但有第1個冷高壓的基礎,北台灣不會轉熱,南臺灣也小熱而已。
重點就是第3個冷高壓,太平洋高壓呈現帶狀駐守巴士海峽後,
500百帕西風急流從華南過來,且太平洋高壓西側帶上印度洋水氣;
冷暖對峙的大氣環境,隨著第3個冷高壓南下,來到北台灣上空。
因此,模式顯示週四下半天開始北部、東北部就多雨了。
當然,雖然冬季系統想創造冬季大環境,東北季風直吹彷彿入冬地形雨。
但,
秋季還是多氣旋,一週尾聲氣旋擾動一出現,
太平洋高壓分裂,西風帶震盪,
情況就有變化了,再觀察囉。
以古觀之氣象,
金水-冬季系統,來了水木-氣旋擾動,
於是,
木生火,木火-夏季系統把內力聚集在火-太平洋高壓了。
如此一來就看新一輪的大氣環境了。
(西風帶系統引西方金氣,太平洋高壓引南方火氣,火剋金,金耗火,兩氣互沖)
但無論大氣環境如何,秋季真正來到,
秋天是文學的季節,也常令人感嘆一寸光陰一寸金:
(宋‧朱熹‧《偶成》)
少年易學老難成,一寸光陰不可輕。
未覺池塘春草夢,階前梧葉已秋聲。
(以上供參囉)
--
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