天氣小觀:中亞寬西風脊,下週東亞寒潮,台灣入冬 - 颱風討論
By Ursula
at 2021-11-05T11:25
at 2021-11-05T11:25
Table of Contents
天氣小觀:中亞寬厚西風大脊,下週東亞寒潮爆發,台灣也入冬
現在還不是隆冬,中亞出現寬廣的西風大脊,範圍約從地中海到中亞,
(隆冬季節正值北極渦旋巔峰,中亞不容易出現這麼寬厚的西風脊不多)
但也就是這麼寬廣的西風大脊,極鋒噴流震盪劇烈,冬季系統往南暴衝。
其實這種突如的大脊大槽下,春天也會看到冬季系統暴衝的特性。
而一週後期就是冬季系統暴衝了,東亞寒潮爆發。
模式預報,未來一週,中亞大寬脊不會有封閉的阻塞高壓形成,
取而代之的是快速崩潰東移,因此對應的東亞東亞大槽立即轉直南壓。
由於西風脊崩潰速度太快,蒙古高壓轉往新疆堆積後南衝,
由於冷高壓從西北過來,遇到的地形阻礙較多,
但高空環境實在適合南衝,西風大槽整個壓在東亞,
槽後極鋒噴流的正北氣流 和 青藏高原地形產生的西風北支脊的西北氣流會合
正北氣流+西北氣流 超有利冷氣團南下的環境
即使冷高壓從西北來,對東亞內陸來說,地形算不了甚麼了,又乾又冷;
不過對台灣來說有點不同,
由於冷高壓從西北而下,冷空氣乾燥,但風速小。
冷空氣不情不願地渡海,減弱很快。(和西伯利亞順東亞沿海南衝,無地形阻擋不同。)
因此,主要是輻射冷卻;但現在是秋天,台灣海峽海溫還沒降有點暖,
因此,冷空氣渡海容易有雲,週二以後的輻冷要拚冷氣團有點難度。
可能要靠夜晚山上下來的寒冷山風下沉,才有機會達標冷氣團。
不過,模式顯示,一週過後,
下週末冷高壓會調整從蒙古南下,會轉成東北季風溼冷的冬季。
再觀察囉。
(最近太忙簡單說說囉)
--
現在還不是隆冬,中亞出現寬廣的西風大脊,範圍約從地中海到中亞,
(隆冬季節正值北極渦旋巔峰,中亞不容易出現這麼寬厚的西風脊不多)
但也就是這麼寬廣的西風大脊,極鋒噴流震盪劇烈,冬季系統往南暴衝。
其實這種突如的大脊大槽下,春天也會看到冬季系統暴衝的特性。
而一週後期就是冬季系統暴衝了,東亞寒潮爆發。
模式預報,未來一週,中亞大寬脊不會有封閉的阻塞高壓形成,
取而代之的是快速崩潰東移,因此對應的東亞東亞大槽立即轉直南壓。
由於西風脊崩潰速度太快,蒙古高壓轉往新疆堆積後南衝,
由於冷高壓從西北過來,遇到的地形阻礙較多,
但高空環境實在適合南衝,西風大槽整個壓在東亞,
槽後極鋒噴流的正北氣流 和 青藏高原地形產生的西風北支脊的西北氣流會合
正北氣流+西北氣流 超有利冷氣團南下的環境
即使冷高壓從西北來,對東亞內陸來說,地形算不了甚麼了,又乾又冷;
不過對台灣來說有點不同,
由於冷高壓從西北而下,冷空氣乾燥,但風速小。
冷空氣不情不願地渡海,減弱很快。(和西伯利亞順東亞沿海南衝,無地形阻擋不同。)
因此,主要是輻射冷卻;但現在是秋天,台灣海峽海溫還沒降有點暖,
因此,冷空氣渡海容易有雲,週二以後的輻冷要拚冷氣團有點難度。
可能要靠夜晚山上下來的寒冷山風下沉,才有機會達標冷氣團。
不過,模式顯示,一週過後,
下週末冷高壓會調整從蒙古南下,會轉成東北季風溼冷的冬季。
再觀察囉。
(最近太忙簡單說說囉)
--
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