天氣小觀:北極渦旋持續增強,繼續冷 - 颱風討論
By Frederica
at 2022-02-04T12:47
at 2022-02-04T12:47
Table of Contents
天氣小觀:北極渦旋持續增強,繼續冷
在超級北極渦旋及南支槽活躍的大氣形勢下,
從1月28日起中部以北就一路濕冷至今,
強極渦的偏冷不用說,活躍的南支槽與東北季風地形雨,
除了1月31日東北季風減弱及華南雲雨帶東移之前的空檔外,
苦主北部東北部多是雨天,尤其東北部日夜永恆的地形雨。
長期模式看來,有點令人吃驚,
超級北極渦旋繼續增強,且有往"異常強極渦事件發生",
百帕高度場14900米已增強至14800米,之後有機會邁向14700米,
整個趨勢看來,異常強極渦事件發生可能性增加了,
當然這要等趨勢成形再來看了。
但,
南方要有心理準備準備長期抗寒,尤其北極渦旋偏向北美,
加拿大冰風暴,美國寒潮爆發一波波源源不絕,
北亞西伯利亞冷高壓也受惠於北極渦旋空頭,冷高壓維持茁壯。
東亞則因為南支槽活躍,帶來大量暖濕氣團,高空水氣一波波通過。
台灣除了南支槽暖濕氣團,還多結合了副高勢力。
且,
這股副高勢力不僅僅如此..
冬季,太平洋高壓南移且經常崩潰,
500百帕高度場在東亞大槽的打壓下,
難以一直維持的5880位勢米的反氣旋場,這時習慣就稱為副高。
儘管如此,
副高在大氣中層的勢力就算崩潰,地面場的溫暖大洋永遠會給予浴火重生的能量。
這股能量的源頭來自於赤道熱海的大量降雨,推動了副高再站起來。
於是,
副高南側形成了赤道東風帶,其中北赤道洋流撞上太平洋西岸群島往北轉形成黑潮。
台灣位於副高西北側,又位於黑潮主流繼呂宋島後第二站,
若沒有東亞大槽及北半球最強的東北季風侵襲,台灣應該是四季如春的天氣才對。
但反過來說,若沒有副高及黑潮主流,台灣應該是四季分明才對。
於是,
台灣未來一週在強極渦的大環境下,還是偏冷囉。
但在副高+很活躍的南支槽前送暖下,偶有空檔,當然也不會有寒流囉。
(以上供參囉)
--
在超級北極渦旋及南支槽活躍的大氣形勢下,
從1月28日起中部以北就一路濕冷至今,
強極渦的偏冷不用說,活躍的南支槽與東北季風地形雨,
除了1月31日東北季風減弱及華南雲雨帶東移之前的空檔外,
苦主北部東北部多是雨天,尤其東北部日夜永恆的地形雨。
長期模式看來,有點令人吃驚,
超級北極渦旋繼續增強,且有往"異常強極渦事件發生",
百帕高度場14900米已增強至14800米,之後有機會邁向14700米,
整個趨勢看來,異常強極渦事件發生可能性增加了,
當然這要等趨勢成形再來看了。
但,
南方要有心理準備準備長期抗寒,尤其北極渦旋偏向北美,
加拿大冰風暴,美國寒潮爆發一波波源源不絕,
北亞西伯利亞冷高壓也受惠於北極渦旋空頭,冷高壓維持茁壯。
東亞則因為南支槽活躍,帶來大量暖濕氣團,高空水氣一波波通過。
台灣除了南支槽暖濕氣團,還多結合了副高勢力。
且,
這股副高勢力不僅僅如此..
冬季,太平洋高壓南移且經常崩潰,
500百帕高度場在東亞大槽的打壓下,
難以一直維持的5880位勢米的反氣旋場,這時習慣就稱為副高。
儘管如此,
副高在大氣中層的勢力就算崩潰,地面場的溫暖大洋永遠會給予浴火重生的能量。
這股能量的源頭來自於赤道熱海的大量降雨,推動了副高再站起來。
於是,
副高南側形成了赤道東風帶,其中北赤道洋流撞上太平洋西岸群島往北轉形成黑潮。
台灣位於副高西北側,又位於黑潮主流繼呂宋島後第二站,
若沒有東亞大槽及北半球最強的東北季風侵襲,台灣應該是四季如春的天氣才對。
但反過來說,若沒有副高及黑潮主流,台灣應該是四季分明才對。
於是,
台灣未來一週在強極渦的大環境下,還是偏冷囉。
但在副高+很活躍的南支槽前送暖下,偶有空檔,當然也不會有寒流囉。
(以上供參囉)
--
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at 2022-07-14T16:37
at 2022-07-14T16:37
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at 2022-07-15T12:57
at 2022-07-15T12:57
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at 2022-07-16T09:18
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at 2022-07-18T01:58
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at 2022-07-18T22:18
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at 2022-07-19T18:39
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at 2022-07-20T14:59
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at 2022-07-22T07:39
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at 2022-07-23T04:00
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at 2022-07-24T00:20
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at 2022-07-24T20:40
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at 2022-07-25T17:00
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at 2022-07-26T13:21
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at 2022-07-27T09:41
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at 2022-08-06T13:44
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at 2022-08-07T10:04
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at 2022-08-16T17:47
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at 2022-08-18T10:28
at 2022-08-18T10:28
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at 2022-08-19T06:48
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at 2022-08-21T19:49
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at 2022-09-24T19:51
at 2022-09-24T19:51
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at 2022-09-24T19:51
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at 2022-09-23T23:31
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