天氣小觀:南方水氣北上東移,週日晚冷氣團 - 颱風討論
By Mary
at 2022-01-28T09:31
at 2022-01-28T09:31
Table of Contents
天氣小觀:南方水氣北上東移,週日晚冷氣團
在強極渦(平穩)非異常強極渦(增強)的大氣環境下,
平流層的北極渦旋全球大空投北極氣團,
若對流層的東亞大槽、北美大槽、歐洲東部槽配合疊加極地氣團,
那冰風暴一發就不可收拾了。
不過,未來一週副熱帶亞洲,除了西風南支槽活躍外,
東北亞高空冷渦旋並沒有延伸大西風槽到台灣,
因此,
西風帶波動不大的情況下,西伯利亞蒙古冷高壓雖強,但未達超級強;
對台灣影響就是預報週日起冷氣團來襲。
由於南支槽前的噴流,華南雲雨帶不斷發展東移,
因此北部東北部降雨就很明顯,南方剛好擾動水氣北上東移,
看來除中北部以竹苗最不易降雨外,各地都有機會降雨。
北宜是東北季風,
南部是擾動與東北季風輻合雨,不過目前看來這擾動消散很快並且東移。
因此主要還是冬季特產的東北季風地形雨。
值得注意的是,缺乏北方西伯利亞蒙古冷高壓不夠強,
趁著西伯利亞蒙古冷高壓稍微減弱或是分裂高壓東移時,
西風南支槽就會活躍起來,槽前噴流產生華南雲雨帶東移影響台灣。
如果再加上東北季風地形雨,未來好一段時間北、東部都是陰冷潮濕多雨。
但因為中亞脊太弱,對應的東亞西風大槽當然就無意轉直延伸到台灣,
模式預報也沒有寒流,
但,超級北極渦旋持續好一段時間,空投也會持續讓南方低溫下探。
因此,
美國GFS模式預報就很驚人的預測下週末台北出現連續72小時冷氣團了。
不過待觀察了。
因為! 往年二月,就是夏季系統甦醒的時候了!
(以上供參囉)
--
在強極渦(平穩)非異常強極渦(增強)的大氣環境下,
平流層的北極渦旋全球大空投北極氣團,
若對流層的東亞大槽、北美大槽、歐洲東部槽配合疊加極地氣團,
那冰風暴一發就不可收拾了。
不過,未來一週副熱帶亞洲,除了西風南支槽活躍外,
東北亞高空冷渦旋並沒有延伸大西風槽到台灣,
因此,
西風帶波動不大的情況下,西伯利亞蒙古冷高壓雖強,但未達超級強;
對台灣影響就是預報週日起冷氣團來襲。
由於南支槽前的噴流,華南雲雨帶不斷發展東移,
因此北部東北部降雨就很明顯,南方剛好擾動水氣北上東移,
看來除中北部以竹苗最不易降雨外,各地都有機會降雨。
北宜是東北季風,
南部是擾動與東北季風輻合雨,不過目前看來這擾動消散很快並且東移。
因此主要還是冬季特產的東北季風地形雨。
值得注意的是,缺乏北方西伯利亞蒙古冷高壓不夠強,
趁著西伯利亞蒙古冷高壓稍微減弱或是分裂高壓東移時,
西風南支槽就會活躍起來,槽前噴流產生華南雲雨帶東移影響台灣。
如果再加上東北季風地形雨,未來好一段時間北、東部都是陰冷潮濕多雨。
但因為中亞脊太弱,對應的東亞西風大槽當然就無意轉直延伸到台灣,
模式預報也沒有寒流,
但,超級北極渦旋持續好一段時間,空投也會持續讓南方低溫下探。
因此,
美國GFS模式預報就很驚人的預測下週末台北出現連續72小時冷氣團了。
不過待觀察了。
因為! 往年二月,就是夏季系統甦醒的時候了!
(以上供參囉)
--
Tags:
颱風
All Comments
By Edward Lewis
at 2022-01-29T05:52
at 2022-01-29T05:52
By Jake
at 2022-01-30T02:12
at 2022-01-30T02:12
By Ethan
at 2022-01-30T22:32
at 2022-01-30T22:32
By Ethan
at 2022-01-31T18:53
at 2022-01-31T18:53
By Rachel
at 2022-02-01T15:13
at 2022-02-01T15:13
By James
at 2022-02-02T11:33
at 2022-02-02T11:33
By Hedy
at 2022-02-03T07:53
at 2022-02-03T07:53
By Heather
at 2022-02-04T04:14
at 2022-02-04T04:14
By Donna
at 2022-02-05T00:34
at 2022-02-05T00:34
By Edith
at 2022-02-05T20:54
at 2022-02-05T20:54
By Mia
at 2022-02-06T17:14
at 2022-02-06T17:14
By Kelly
at 2022-02-07T13:35
at 2022-02-07T13:35
By Ophelia
at 2022-02-08T09:55
at 2022-02-08T09:55
By Rae
at 2022-02-09T06:15
at 2022-02-09T06:15
By Jessica
at 2022-02-10T02:35
at 2022-02-10T02:35
By Lily
at 2022-02-10T22:56
at 2022-02-10T22:56
By Linda
at 2022-02-11T19:16
at 2022-02-11T19:16
By Hazel
at 2022-02-12T15:36
at 2022-02-12T15:36
By Olivia
at 2022-02-13T11:57
at 2022-02-13T11:57
By Hedda
at 2022-02-14T08:17
at 2022-02-14T08:17
By Tom
at 2022-02-15T04:37
at 2022-02-15T04:37
By Emma
at 2022-02-16T00:57
at 2022-02-16T00:57
By Anonymous
at 2022-02-16T21:18
at 2022-02-16T21:18
By Gilbert
at 2022-02-17T17:38
at 2022-02-17T17:38
By Thomas
at 2022-02-18T13:58
at 2022-02-18T13:58
By Sarah
at 2022-02-19T10:18
at 2022-02-19T10:18
By Jake
at 2022-02-20T06:39
at 2022-02-20T06:39
By Una
at 2022-02-21T02:59
at 2022-02-21T02:59
By Olivia
at 2022-02-21T23:19
at 2022-02-21T23:19
By Margaret
at 2022-02-22T19:39
at 2022-02-22T19:39
By Carolina Franco
at 2022-02-23T16:00
at 2022-02-23T16:00
By Valerie
at 2022-02-24T12:20
at 2022-02-24T12:20
By Hedda
at 2022-02-25T08:40
at 2022-02-25T08:40
By Oliver
at 2022-02-26T05:01
at 2022-02-26T05:01
By Aaliyah
at 2022-02-27T01:21
at 2022-02-27T01:21
By James
at 2022-02-27T21:41
at 2022-02-27T21:41
By Edwina
at 2022-02-28T18:01
at 2022-02-28T18:01
By Freda
at 2022-03-01T14:22
at 2022-03-01T14:22
By Isla
at 2022-03-02T10:42
at 2022-03-02T10:42
By Aaliyah
at 2022-03-03T07:02
at 2022-03-03T07:02
By Charlotte
at 2022-03-04T03:22
at 2022-03-04T03:22
By Joe
at 2022-03-04T23:43
at 2022-03-04T23:43
By Bennie
at 2022-03-05T20:03
at 2022-03-05T20:03
By Linda
at 2022-03-06T16:23
at 2022-03-06T16:23
By Ingrid
at 2022-03-07T12:43
at 2022-03-07T12:43
By Irma
at 2022-03-08T09:04
at 2022-03-08T09:04
By Tom
at 2022-03-09T05:24
at 2022-03-09T05:24
By Michael
at 2022-03-10T01:44
at 2022-03-10T01:44
By Erin
at 2022-03-10T22:05
at 2022-03-10T22:05
By Andrew
at 2022-03-11T18:25
at 2022-03-11T18:25
By Joe
at 2022-03-12T14:45
at 2022-03-12T14:45
By Gilbert
at 2022-03-13T11:05
at 2022-03-13T11:05
By Rachel
at 2022-03-14T07:26
at 2022-03-14T07:26
By Doris
at 2022-03-15T03:46
at 2022-03-15T03:46
By Sandy
at 2022-03-16T00:06
at 2022-03-16T00:06
By Ingrid
at 2022-03-16T20:26
at 2022-03-16T20:26
By Olivia
at 2022-03-17T16:47
at 2022-03-17T16:47
By Emily
at 2022-03-18T13:07
at 2022-03-18T13:07
By Noah
at 2022-03-19T09:27
at 2022-03-19T09:27
By Agatha
at 2022-03-20T05:47
at 2022-03-20T05:47
By Franklin
at 2022-03-21T02:08
at 2022-03-21T02:08
By Harry
at 2022-03-21T22:28
at 2022-03-21T22:28
By Quanna
at 2022-03-22T18:48
at 2022-03-22T18:48
By Mia
at 2022-03-23T15:09
at 2022-03-23T15:09
By Robert
at 2022-03-24T11:29
at 2022-03-24T11:29
By Eartha
at 2022-03-25T07:49
at 2022-03-25T07:49
By Kyle
at 2022-03-26T04:09
at 2022-03-26T04:09
By Jacob
at 2022-03-27T00:30
at 2022-03-27T00:30
By Damian
at 2022-03-27T20:50
at 2022-03-27T20:50
By Bethany
at 2022-03-28T17:10
at 2022-03-28T17:10
By Ivy
at 2022-03-29T13:30
at 2022-03-29T13:30
By Blanche
at 2022-03-30T09:51
at 2022-03-30T09:51
By Noah
at 2022-03-31T06:11
at 2022-03-31T06:11
By Tom
at 2022-04-01T02:31
at 2022-04-01T02:31
By Lucy
at 2022-04-01T22:51
at 2022-04-01T22:51
By Frederica
at 2022-04-02T19:12
at 2022-04-02T19:12
By Adele
at 2022-04-03T15:32
at 2022-04-03T15:32
By Necoo
at 2022-04-04T11:52
at 2022-04-04T11:52
By Jack
at 2022-04-05T08:13
at 2022-04-05T08:13
By Lucy
at 2022-04-06T04:33
at 2022-04-06T04:33
By Leila
at 2022-04-07T00:53
at 2022-04-07T00:53
By Cara
at 2022-04-07T21:13
at 2022-04-07T21:13
By Ursula
at 2022-04-08T17:34
at 2022-04-08T17:34
By Hamiltion
at 2022-04-09T13:54
at 2022-04-09T13:54
By Aaliyah
at 2022-04-10T10:14
at 2022-04-10T10:14
By Joe
at 2022-04-11T06:34
at 2022-04-11T06:34
By Dinah
at 2022-04-12T02:55
at 2022-04-12T02:55
By Harry
at 2022-04-12T23:15
at 2022-04-12T23:15
By Regina
at 2022-04-13T19:35
at 2022-04-13T19:35
By Joe
at 2022-04-14T15:55
at 2022-04-14T15:55
By Freda
at 2022-04-15T12:16
at 2022-04-15T12:16
By Gary
at 2022-04-16T08:36
at 2022-04-16T08:36
By Genevieve
at 2022-04-17T04:56
at 2022-04-17T04:56
By Jake
at 2022-04-18T01:17
at 2022-04-18T01:17
By Wallis
at 2022-04-18T21:37
at 2022-04-18T21:37
By Megan
at 2022-04-19T17:57
at 2022-04-19T17:57
By Catherine
at 2022-04-20T14:17
at 2022-04-20T14:17
By Cara
at 2022-04-21T10:38
at 2022-04-21T10:38
By Joe
at 2022-04-22T06:58
at 2022-04-22T06:58
By Charlie
at 2022-04-23T03:18
at 2022-04-23T03:18
By Yuri
at 2022-04-23T23:38
at 2022-04-23T23:38
By Agnes
at 2022-04-24T19:59
at 2022-04-24T19:59
By Sandy
at 2022-04-25T16:19
at 2022-04-25T16:19
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2022-04-26T12:39
at 2022-04-26T12:39
By Megan
at 2022-04-27T08:59
at 2022-04-27T08:59
By Victoria
at 2022-04-28T05:20
at 2022-04-28T05:20
By Agatha
at 2022-04-29T01:40
at 2022-04-29T01:40
By Emma
at 2022-04-29T22:00
at 2022-04-29T22:00
By Jacky
at 2022-04-30T18:21
at 2022-04-30T18:21
By Madame
at 2022-05-01T14:41
at 2022-05-01T14:41
By Zenobia
at 2022-05-02T11:01
at 2022-05-02T11:01
By Eartha
at 2022-05-03T07:21
at 2022-05-03T07:21
By Odelette
at 2022-05-04T03:42
at 2022-05-04T03:42
By Michael
at 2022-05-05T00:02
at 2022-05-05T00:02
By Mia
at 2022-05-05T20:22
at 2022-05-05T20:22
By Sandy
at 2022-05-06T16:42
at 2022-05-06T16:42
By Suhail Hany
at 2022-05-07T13:03
at 2022-05-07T13:03
By Andy
at 2022-05-08T09:23
at 2022-05-08T09:23
By Ethan
at 2022-05-09T05:43
at 2022-05-09T05:43
By Todd Johnson
at 2022-05-10T02:03
at 2022-05-10T02:03
By Rebecca
at 2022-05-10T22:24
at 2022-05-10T22:24
By Charlotte
at 2022-05-11T18:44
at 2022-05-11T18:44
By Eden
at 2022-05-12T15:04
at 2022-05-12T15:04
By Delia
at 2022-05-13T11:25
at 2022-05-13T11:25
By Elizabeth
at 2022-05-14T07:45
at 2022-05-14T07:45
By Hedwig
at 2022-05-15T04:05
at 2022-05-15T04:05
By Vanessa
at 2022-05-16T00:25
at 2022-05-16T00:25
By Frederica
at 2022-05-16T20:46
at 2022-05-16T20:46
By Zora
at 2022-05-17T17:06
at 2022-05-17T17:06
By Olive
at 2022-05-18T13:26
at 2022-05-18T13:26
By Mason
at 2022-05-19T09:46
at 2022-05-19T09:46
By Hedy
at 2022-05-20T06:07
at 2022-05-20T06:07
By Hazel
at 2022-05-21T02:27
at 2022-05-21T02:27
By Harry
at 2022-05-21T22:47
at 2022-05-21T22:47
By Kama
at 2022-05-22T19:07
at 2022-05-22T19:07
By Kama
at 2022-05-23T15:28
at 2022-05-23T15:28
By Connor
at 2022-05-24T11:48
at 2022-05-24T11:48
By Elma
at 2022-05-25T08:08
at 2022-05-25T08:08
By Yedda
at 2022-05-26T04:29
at 2022-05-26T04:29
By Lauren
at 2022-05-27T00:49
at 2022-05-27T00:49
By Emma
at 2022-05-27T21:09
at 2022-05-27T21:09
By Odelette
at 2022-05-28T17:29
at 2022-05-28T17:29
By Ursula
at 2022-05-29T13:50
at 2022-05-29T13:50
By Brianna
at 2022-05-30T10:10
at 2022-05-30T10:10
By Candice
at 2022-05-31T06:30
at 2022-05-31T06:30
By Sarah
at 2022-06-01T02:50
at 2022-06-01T02:50
By Frederica
at 2022-06-01T23:11
at 2022-06-01T23:11
By Charlie
at 2022-06-02T19:31
at 2022-06-02T19:31
By Charlie
at 2022-06-03T15:51
at 2022-06-03T15:51
By Harry
at 2022-06-04T12:11
at 2022-06-04T12:11
By Hazel
at 2022-06-05T08:32
at 2022-06-05T08:32
By Jessica
at 2022-06-06T04:52
at 2022-06-06T04:52
By Freda
at 2022-06-07T01:12
at 2022-06-07T01:12
By Gilbert
at 2022-06-07T21:33
at 2022-06-07T21:33
By Zenobia
at 2022-06-08T17:53
at 2022-06-08T17:53
By Leila
at 2022-06-09T14:13
at 2022-06-09T14:13
By Eartha
at 2022-06-10T10:33
at 2022-06-10T10:33
By Leila
at 2022-06-11T06:54
at 2022-06-11T06:54
By Charlie
at 2022-06-12T03:14
at 2022-06-12T03:14
By Donna
at 2022-06-12T23:34
at 2022-06-12T23:34
By Jessica
at 2022-06-13T19:54
at 2022-06-13T19:54
By Edward Lewis
at 2022-06-14T16:15
at 2022-06-14T16:15
By Genevieve
at 2022-06-15T12:35
at 2022-06-15T12:35
By Edith
at 2022-06-16T08:55
at 2022-06-16T08:55
By Edith
at 2022-06-17T05:15
at 2022-06-17T05:15
By Iris
at 2022-06-18T01:36
at 2022-06-18T01:36
By Jack
at 2022-06-18T21:56
at 2022-06-18T21:56
By Lydia
at 2022-06-19T18:16
at 2022-06-19T18:16
By Connor
at 2022-06-20T14:37
at 2022-06-20T14:37
By Hedy
at 2022-06-21T10:57
at 2022-06-21T10:57
By Blanche
at 2022-06-22T07:17
at 2022-06-22T07:17
By Enid
at 2022-06-23T03:37
at 2022-06-23T03:37
By Blanche
at 2022-06-23T23:58
at 2022-06-23T23:58
By Ula
at 2022-06-24T20:18
at 2022-06-24T20:18
By Anonymous
at 2022-06-25T16:38
at 2022-06-25T16:38
By Olive
at 2022-06-26T12:58
at 2022-06-26T12:58
By George
at 2022-06-27T09:19
at 2022-06-27T09:19
By Joseph
at 2022-06-28T05:39
at 2022-06-28T05:39
By Margaret
at 2022-06-29T01:59
at 2022-06-29T01:59
By Ophelia
at 2022-06-29T22:19
at 2022-06-29T22:19
By Elizabeth
at 2022-06-30T18:40
at 2022-06-30T18:40
By Queena
at 2022-07-01T15:00
at 2022-07-01T15:00
By Olivia
at 2022-07-02T11:20
at 2022-07-02T11:20
By Olivia
at 2022-07-03T07:41
at 2022-07-03T07:41
By Dinah
at 2022-07-04T04:01
at 2022-07-04T04:01
By Wallis
at 2022-07-05T00:21
at 2022-07-05T00:21
By Liam
at 2022-07-05T20:41
at 2022-07-05T20:41
By Zora
at 2022-07-06T17:02
at 2022-07-06T17:02
By Brianna
at 2022-07-07T13:22
at 2022-07-07T13:22
By Dinah
at 2022-07-08T09:42
at 2022-07-08T09:42
By Suhail Hany
at 2022-07-09T06:02
at 2022-07-09T06:02
By Damian
at 2022-07-10T02:23
at 2022-07-10T02:23
By Jack
at 2022-07-10T22:43
at 2022-07-10T22:43
By Lily
at 2022-07-11T19:03
at 2022-07-11T19:03
By Hedwig
at 2022-07-12T15:23
at 2022-07-12T15:23
By Cara
at 2022-07-13T11:44
at 2022-07-13T11:44
By Brianna
at 2022-07-14T08:04
at 2022-07-14T08:04
By Christine
at 2022-07-15T04:24
at 2022-07-15T04:24
By Hamiltion
at 2022-07-16T00:45
at 2022-07-16T00:45
By Anthony
at 2022-07-16T21:05
at 2022-07-16T21:05
By Isla
at 2022-07-17T17:25
at 2022-07-17T17:25
By Oscar
at 2022-07-18T13:45
at 2022-07-18T13:45
By Jessica
at 2022-07-19T10:06
at 2022-07-19T10:06
Related Posts
天氣小觀:超級北極渦旋將滑向北美超冰風暴
By Doris
at 2022-01-26T21:08
at 2022-01-26T21:08
東加海底火山爆發造成的氣壓變化?
By Kama
at 2022-01-25T11:24
at 2022-01-25T11:24
天氣小觀:強極渦,非異常強極渦的大氣環境
By Edward Lewis
at 2022-01-24T08:09
at 2022-01-24T08:09
東加火山爆發致全球降溫? 專家分析:應
By Harry
at 2022-01-19T14:27
at 2022-01-19T14:27
天氣小觀:地形雨下到週末,後期超級北極渦旋
By Hardy
at 2022-01-18T21:25
at 2022-01-18T21:25