天氣小觀:南亞高壓太弱,東亞梅雨下不來 - 颱風討論
By Quintina
at 2021-05-10T18:26
at 2021-05-10T18:26
Table of Contents
天氣小觀:南亞高壓太弱,東亞梅雨下不來
過去,太著重等待地面大氣西南季風,
卻忘了:
東亞梅雨倚靠的是-南亞高壓的東西震盪;
其中,南亞高壓的東西震盪對台灣來說,
最重要的是:從中南半島南亞高壓往北拱起的西風噴流,讓梅雨鋒面順利壓到台灣。
如今,
本是南亞高壓崛起的季節,今年卻好像發育不良的早產兒,
今天,
大氣高層的副熱帶西風噴流竟然還直挺挺的橫在台灣到華南上空;
這種情況變成,北方冷空氣活動,鋒面頻頻通過日韓。
(其實和春季鋒面沒兩樣,非滯留鋒)
至於南方如台灣,
卻始終受太平洋高壓影響。
往年5月,
南亞高壓從中南半島發跡後,副熱帶西風噴流已開始南北震盪,
在南亞高壓南側,
從中南半島建立的熱帶東風提供高層噴流,由東北向西南吹,
熱帶東風噴流的右後方,也就是台灣到華南的南亞高壓反氣旋輻散,
這種高空輻散,有利地面南北氣流輻合,也有利梅雨鋒面南下台灣。
但今年,南亞高壓太不像話了,至今還像胚胎一樣要生不生的,
難怪地面南海西南季風一直看無影。
因為,中緯度梅雨鋒面的南下,絕大部分情形是誘發南海西南季風爆發的活性劑。
少了這強大的活性劑:中緯度系統鋒面南下,
苦等著南海西南季風爆發可能要等到五月底或六月了。
而且,
南海西南季風爆發後,要是少了梅雨鋒面的大氣形勢,
反而因為輻合太平洋高壓的偏東風,建立起季風槽,變成颱風季節了。
因此,南亞高壓實在是東亞梅雨季重中之重的角色了。
模式預報,
阿拉伯海氣旋有機會建立起高空反氣旋,看起來會由此區穩固南亞高壓,
倘若,南亞高壓從南亞崛起,這與以往中南半島北移的大氣形勢不同,
那麼後續南亞高壓的東西震盪,是否會令東亞殘餘冷空氣偏西活動,
就值得觀察了!(冷空氣偏西活動不利於梅雨鋒面往台灣來)
不過,
隨著孟加拉灣西南季風爆發的話,中南半島高空也有利南亞高壓震盪而來,
因此,重點還是南亞高壓崛起,越快越好了。
模式顯示,可能要到下週,才是南亞高壓崛起後首次北拱西風噴流,
因此,台灣的梅雨還是再等等,有機會是五月下旬。
而,
最近太平洋高壓實在強大,連午後雷陣雨都發展不起來,本週持續悶熱了。
結論:
南亞高壓太重要,情感之春,不得不對南亞高壓喊道:
起來 起來 起來 起來 起來
拱起來 拱起來 拱起來 拱起來
(以上供參囉)
--
過去,太著重等待地面大氣西南季風,
卻忘了:
東亞梅雨倚靠的是-南亞高壓的東西震盪;
其中,南亞高壓的東西震盪對台灣來說,
最重要的是:從中南半島南亞高壓往北拱起的西風噴流,讓梅雨鋒面順利壓到台灣。
如今,
本是南亞高壓崛起的季節,今年卻好像發育不良的早產兒,
今天,
大氣高層的副熱帶西風噴流竟然還直挺挺的橫在台灣到華南上空;
這種情況變成,北方冷空氣活動,鋒面頻頻通過日韓。
(其實和春季鋒面沒兩樣,非滯留鋒)
至於南方如台灣,
卻始終受太平洋高壓影響。
往年5月,
南亞高壓從中南半島發跡後,副熱帶西風噴流已開始南北震盪,
在南亞高壓南側,
從中南半島建立的熱帶東風提供高層噴流,由東北向西南吹,
熱帶東風噴流的右後方,也就是台灣到華南的南亞高壓反氣旋輻散,
這種高空輻散,有利地面南北氣流輻合,也有利梅雨鋒面南下台灣。
但今年,南亞高壓太不像話了,至今還像胚胎一樣要生不生的,
難怪地面南海西南季風一直看無影。
因為,中緯度梅雨鋒面的南下,絕大部分情形是誘發南海西南季風爆發的活性劑。
少了這強大的活性劑:中緯度系統鋒面南下,
苦等著南海西南季風爆發可能要等到五月底或六月了。
而且,
南海西南季風爆發後,要是少了梅雨鋒面的大氣形勢,
反而因為輻合太平洋高壓的偏東風,建立起季風槽,變成颱風季節了。
因此,南亞高壓實在是東亞梅雨季重中之重的角色了。
模式預報,
阿拉伯海氣旋有機會建立起高空反氣旋,看起來會由此區穩固南亞高壓,
倘若,南亞高壓從南亞崛起,這與以往中南半島北移的大氣形勢不同,
那麼後續南亞高壓的東西震盪,是否會令東亞殘餘冷空氣偏西活動,
就值得觀察了!(冷空氣偏西活動不利於梅雨鋒面往台灣來)
不過,
隨著孟加拉灣西南季風爆發的話,中南半島高空也有利南亞高壓震盪而來,
因此,重點還是南亞高壓崛起,越快越好了。
模式顯示,可能要到下週,才是南亞高壓崛起後首次北拱西風噴流,
因此,台灣的梅雨還是再等等,有機會是五月下旬。
而,
最近太平洋高壓實在強大,連午後雷陣雨都發展不起來,本週持續悶熱了。
結論:
南亞高壓太重要,情感之春,不得不對南亞高壓喊道:
起來 起來 起來 起來 起來
拱起來 拱起來 拱起來 拱起來
(以上供參囉)
--
Tags:
颱風
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