天氣小觀:幫手將現,一週後期阿拉伯海氣旋出現 - 颱風討論
By Doris
at 2021-05-09T09:15
at 2021-05-09T09:15
Table of Contents
每年2月上旬立春,節氣上春天到了,南亞陸地增溫,台灣感受鋒面雨增加。
每年5月上旬立夏,節氣上夏天到了,南亞高壓誕生,台灣感受對流雨增加。
每年8月上旬立秋,節氣上秋天到了,北極渦旋甦醒,台灣感受氣旋雨增加。
每年11月上旬立冬,節氣上冬天到了,寒潮爆發季節,台灣感受地形雨增加。
目前正值等待南海西南季風爆發的季節,更是春季高空最終壓軸梅雨鋒面秀。
無奈,
太平洋高壓的強大,暫時還看不到季風雨和梅雨。
先前孟加拉灣不成氣候的氣旋,無法斷開南亞副高場,
隨後東方太平洋高壓的崛起西伸,又重新抑制了孟加拉灣西南季風的爆發。
導致苦等不到印度洋近赤道渦旋北移。
不過,
模式預報未來一週後期,亞洲夏季季風爆發的幫手出現,
由於南印度洋的熱帶氣旋發展,南北半球氣旋成對,
因此阿拉伯也將出現規模頗大的熱帶氣旋,並且隨著氣旋北移,
可以推擠南亞副高,帶起印度洋赤道渦旋。
一旦南北半球氣旋登場,合力在赤道帶起強勁的低層西風噴流,
強勁的赤道西風伴隨強降雨往孟加拉灣東傳Rossby波,
一週尾聲,
孟加拉灣近赤道東風消退,這表示副高場讓出低緯度海域,
於是從阿拉伯海南部、孟加拉灣南部、甚至到南海南部都有跨赤道西風氣流出現,
並且伴隨著降雨出現,著手準備為一年一度亞洲南方大氣盛世-西南季風爆發。
因此,
阿拉伯海的氣旋可以說是西南季風爆發的好幫手了。
再往東看,
東邊南海當然主要是受制於強大的太平洋高壓掌控,但太平洋高壓南側,
地面大氣由於澳大利亞冷高壓吹入南海到菲東低緯度的跨赤道氣流,
因此一直有氣旋擾動消消長長,
部分模式預報認為,後期菲律賓東方似乎有颱風出現的機會。
在強勢太平洋高壓場下,新颱風將進入南海,
雖然入南海後引進南海西南風,有利南海西南季風爆發,但新颱風不利梅雨鋒面南下。
因此,
一旦新颱風出現,太平洋高壓就是關鍵角色,導引颱風路徑。
結論:較長遠的大氣形勢,期待印度洋南北半球的氣旋對比較實在;
短期就期待每日午後對流雨,畢竟太平洋高壓無法天天抑制對流。
在強大日照的大氣環境下,
一天沒降雨,隔天大氣濕度高容易達到飽和,
凝結高度降低 => 可用位能增加 => 更有利強對流發生 => 突破高壓障壁
(以上供參囉)
--
每年5月上旬立夏,節氣上夏天到了,南亞高壓誕生,台灣感受對流雨增加。
每年8月上旬立秋,節氣上秋天到了,北極渦旋甦醒,台灣感受氣旋雨增加。
每年11月上旬立冬,節氣上冬天到了,寒潮爆發季節,台灣感受地形雨增加。
目前正值等待南海西南季風爆發的季節,更是春季高空最終壓軸梅雨鋒面秀。
無奈,
太平洋高壓的強大,暫時還看不到季風雨和梅雨。
先前孟加拉灣不成氣候的氣旋,無法斷開南亞副高場,
隨後東方太平洋高壓的崛起西伸,又重新抑制了孟加拉灣西南季風的爆發。
導致苦等不到印度洋近赤道渦旋北移。
不過,
模式預報未來一週後期,亞洲夏季季風爆發的幫手出現,
由於南印度洋的熱帶氣旋發展,南北半球氣旋成對,
因此阿拉伯也將出現規模頗大的熱帶氣旋,並且隨著氣旋北移,
可以推擠南亞副高,帶起印度洋赤道渦旋。
一旦南北半球氣旋登場,合力在赤道帶起強勁的低層西風噴流,
強勁的赤道西風伴隨強降雨往孟加拉灣東傳Rossby波,
一週尾聲,
孟加拉灣近赤道東風消退,這表示副高場讓出低緯度海域,
於是從阿拉伯海南部、孟加拉灣南部、甚至到南海南部都有跨赤道西風氣流出現,
並且伴隨著降雨出現,著手準備為一年一度亞洲南方大氣盛世-西南季風爆發。
因此,
阿拉伯海的氣旋可以說是西南季風爆發的好幫手了。
再往東看,
東邊南海當然主要是受制於強大的太平洋高壓掌控,但太平洋高壓南側,
地面大氣由於澳大利亞冷高壓吹入南海到菲東低緯度的跨赤道氣流,
因此一直有氣旋擾動消消長長,
部分模式預報認為,後期菲律賓東方似乎有颱風出現的機會。
在強勢太平洋高壓場下,新颱風將進入南海,
雖然入南海後引進南海西南風,有利南海西南季風爆發,但新颱風不利梅雨鋒面南下。
因此,
一旦新颱風出現,太平洋高壓就是關鍵角色,導引颱風路徑。
結論:較長遠的大氣形勢,期待印度洋南北半球的氣旋對比較實在;
短期就期待每日午後對流雨,畢竟太平洋高壓無法天天抑制對流。
在強大日照的大氣環境下,
一天沒降雨,隔天大氣濕度高容易達到飽和,
凝結高度降低 => 可用位能增加 => 更有利強對流發生 => 突破高壓障壁
(以上供參囉)
--
Tags:
颱風
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