天氣小觀:夏季大氣生活等精彩 - 颱風討論
By Edward Lewis
at 2022-07-07T13:02
at 2022-07-07T13:02
Table of Contents
在沒有颱風的夏季大氣系統控場大氣環境下,就是太平洋高壓和大陸熱低壓西南季風,
太平洋高壓帶來副熱帶氣團(高壓中心)和熱帶海洋氣團(太平洋高壓西緣),
大陸熱低壓西南季風帶來赤道海洋氣團和熱帶海洋氣團(與太平洋高壓接鄰時),
低層偏東風帶來的副熱帶氣團是最乾燥的,
低層偏南風帶來的赤道海洋氣團是南台灣的雨季,
而,
介於兩者之間就是熱帶海洋氣團的潮濕悶熱了,午後容易有熱對流雷雨。
模式預報未來一週,
太平洋高壓從東海西伸分裂單體進入東亞,因此地面場有東南風進來,
但由於高壓勢力不算強(太平洋高壓通常要八月達巔峰),因此地面場就是東南風轉南風,
如此一來,西半部北中南都有機會午後熱對流雨出現。
比較精彩的變數在於gfs模式認為,
一週後期,菲律賓東方和南海分別會有熱帶性低氣壓出現,
當然,這就要看西南季風和太平洋高壓偏東風輻合的結果了,
ec模式目前認為熱帶性低氣壓出現南海中部,
意思就是不看好菲律賓東南方明後天會出現熱帶擾動。
因此,就觀察菲律賓東南方是否明後天會出現熱帶擾動囉。
(以上供參囉)
--
太平洋高壓帶來副熱帶氣團(高壓中心)和熱帶海洋氣團(太平洋高壓西緣),
大陸熱低壓西南季風帶來赤道海洋氣團和熱帶海洋氣團(與太平洋高壓接鄰時),
低層偏東風帶來的副熱帶氣團是最乾燥的,
低層偏南風帶來的赤道海洋氣團是南台灣的雨季,
而,
介於兩者之間就是熱帶海洋氣團的潮濕悶熱了,午後容易有熱對流雷雨。
模式預報未來一週,
太平洋高壓從東海西伸分裂單體進入東亞,因此地面場有東南風進來,
但由於高壓勢力不算強(太平洋高壓通常要八月達巔峰),因此地面場就是東南風轉南風,
如此一來,西半部北中南都有機會午後熱對流雨出現。
比較精彩的變數在於gfs模式認為,
一週後期,菲律賓東方和南海分別會有熱帶性低氣壓出現,
當然,這就要看西南季風和太平洋高壓偏東風輻合的結果了,
ec模式目前認為熱帶性低氣壓出現南海中部,
意思就是不看好菲律賓東南方明後天會出現熱帶擾動。
因此,就觀察菲律賓東南方是否明後天會出現熱帶擾動囉。
(以上供參囉)
--
Tags:
颱風
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