天氣小觀:準芙蓉颱風大吃南海西南季風Buffet - 颱風討論
By Susan
at 2022-06-30T06:41
at 2022-06-30T06:41
Table of Contents
準芙蓉颱風就要誕生,由於位處南海幾乎吃光南海西南季風,
導致菲律賓呂宋島東方的熱帶擾動98W吃不太到,
若是少了西南季風幫助渦度增強,發展就很慢了,
因此98W北上對台灣就沒甚麼影響,反而準芙蓉04W颱風才是重點。
目前南海海溫平均偏高,加上南海西南季風免費Buffet,地面層的颱風環境實在優良
但7月南海的北方的高空就是"南亞高壓壟罩東亞",
高空輻散呈現的是高壓的下沉往赤道氣流,
颱風位處於這種赤向輻散的高空環境場,就很不優。
如果是到了8月,北方西風噴流的壓力出現後,南亞高壓主力放在青藏高原,
東亞的高空環境輻散就會好多了,當然秋季後就是另一方局面了。
只是對於夏季迷來說,就算秋季颱風出風王,
但颱風畢竟屬於夏季大氣系統,也許夏季迷寧願選擇"炎夏看颱風比較有感覺"。
冬季迷噗哧以鼻...
模式預報來看,太平洋高壓的導引比預期強勢些,
準芙蓉颱風偏西移動趨向海南島或雷州半島。
對台灣主要就是中南部受外圍環流加西南季風北上,周末以後降雨天數不會少;
不過,模式後期顯示,台灣東方近海有熱帶擾動趨向形成,對台灣就很有影響了。
但模式對於這種不確定性還是預報分歧,
因後期太平洋高壓略為西伸,
EC認為這微弱擾動近岸受地形影響後消散,
GFS則認為台灣會短時間內變成季風槽的低壓發展環境場,
無論如何,下週一起的台灣大氣環境就很搖擺了。
而模式未來一週前期,先兩天午後雷雨,東南風的背風低壓區主要在中南部
週六芙蓉颱風的外圍雲雨帶上來,首當其衝的就是南台灣,
下週就是西南季風影響了,以及新擾動在東方近海,有點搖擺不定的大氣環境了。
(簡單說說囉)
--
導致菲律賓呂宋島東方的熱帶擾動98W吃不太到,
若是少了西南季風幫助渦度增強,發展就很慢了,
因此98W北上對台灣就沒甚麼影響,反而準芙蓉04W颱風才是重點。
目前南海海溫平均偏高,加上南海西南季風免費Buffet,地面層的颱風環境實在優良
但7月南海的北方的高空就是"南亞高壓壟罩東亞",
高空輻散呈現的是高壓的下沉往赤道氣流,
颱風位處於這種赤向輻散的高空環境場,就很不優。
如果是到了8月,北方西風噴流的壓力出現後,南亞高壓主力放在青藏高原,
東亞的高空環境輻散就會好多了,當然秋季後就是另一方局面了。
只是對於夏季迷來說,就算秋季颱風出風王,
但颱風畢竟屬於夏季大氣系統,也許夏季迷寧願選擇"炎夏看颱風比較有感覺"。
冬季迷噗哧以鼻...
模式預報來看,太平洋高壓的導引比預期強勢些,
準芙蓉颱風偏西移動趨向海南島或雷州半島。
對台灣主要就是中南部受外圍環流加西南季風北上,周末以後降雨天數不會少;
不過,模式後期顯示,台灣東方近海有熱帶擾動趨向形成,對台灣就很有影響了。
但模式對於這種不確定性還是預報分歧,
因後期太平洋高壓略為西伸,
EC認為這微弱擾動近岸受地形影響後消散,
GFS則認為台灣會短時間內變成季風槽的低壓發展環境場,
無論如何,下週一起的台灣大氣環境就很搖擺了。
而模式未來一週前期,先兩天午後雷雨,東南風的背風低壓區主要在中南部
週六芙蓉颱風的外圍雲雨帶上來,首當其衝的就是南台灣,
下週就是西南季風影響了,以及新擾動在東方近海,有點搖擺不定的大氣環境了。
(簡單說說囉)
--
Tags:
颱風
All Comments
By Caitlin
at 2022-07-02T11:21
at 2022-07-02T11:21
By Kyle
at 2022-07-04T16:02
at 2022-07-04T16:02
By Annie
at 2022-07-06T20:43
at 2022-07-06T20:43
By Anthony
at 2022-07-09T01:23
at 2022-07-09T01:23
By Doris
at 2022-07-11T06:04
at 2022-07-11T06:04
By Agnes
at 2022-07-13T10:45
at 2022-07-13T10:45
By Belly
at 2022-07-15T15:25
at 2022-07-15T15:25
By Rae
at 2022-07-17T20:06
at 2022-07-17T20:06
By Zora
at 2022-07-20T00:47
at 2022-07-20T00:47
By Eartha
at 2022-07-22T05:27
at 2022-07-22T05:27
By Annie
at 2022-07-24T10:08
at 2022-07-24T10:08
By Robert
at 2022-07-26T14:49
at 2022-07-26T14:49
By Cara
at 2022-07-28T19:29
at 2022-07-28T19:29
By George
at 2022-07-31T00:10
at 2022-07-31T00:10
By Queena
at 2022-08-02T04:51
at 2022-08-02T04:51
By Dinah
at 2022-08-04T09:31
at 2022-08-04T09:31
By Sandy
at 2022-08-06T14:12
at 2022-08-06T14:12
By Oliver
at 2022-08-08T18:53
at 2022-08-08T18:53
By Agnes
at 2022-08-10T23:33
at 2022-08-10T23:33
By Queena
at 2022-08-13T04:14
at 2022-08-13T04:14
By Rachel
at 2022-08-15T08:55
at 2022-08-15T08:55
By Skylar Davis
at 2022-08-17T13:35
at 2022-08-17T13:35
By Daph Bay
at 2022-08-19T18:16
at 2022-08-19T18:16
By Oliver
at 2022-08-21T22:57
at 2022-08-21T22:57
By Emily
at 2022-08-24T03:37
at 2022-08-24T03:37
By Leila
at 2022-08-26T08:18
at 2022-08-26T08:18
By Catherine
at 2022-08-28T12:59
at 2022-08-28T12:59
By David
at 2022-08-30T17:39
at 2022-08-30T17:39
By Hardy
at 2022-09-01T22:20
at 2022-09-01T22:20
By George
at 2022-09-04T03:01
at 2022-09-04T03:01
By Eden
at 2022-09-06T07:41
at 2022-09-06T07:41
By Mary
at 2022-09-08T12:22
at 2022-09-08T12:22
By Hedy
at 2022-09-10T17:03
at 2022-09-10T17:03
By Zora
at 2022-09-12T21:43
at 2022-09-12T21:43
By Liam
at 2022-09-15T02:24
at 2022-09-15T02:24
By Olivia
at 2022-09-17T07:05
at 2022-09-17T07:05
By Vanessa
at 2022-09-19T11:45
at 2022-09-19T11:45
By Lydia
at 2022-09-21T16:26
at 2022-09-21T16:26
By Heather
at 2022-09-23T21:07
at 2022-09-23T21:07
By Caitlin
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Selena
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Queena
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Ophelia
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Sandy
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Irma
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Damian
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Catherine
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By William
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Dorothy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By James
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Kristin
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Rebecca
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Carol
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By James
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Connor
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Emma
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Thomas
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Ingrid
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Andy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Audriana
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Olga
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Edwina
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Rosalind
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Hamiltion
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Necoo
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Odelette
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Barb Cronin
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Isla
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Kristin
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Belly
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Edith
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Victoria
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Lucy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Anonymous
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By William
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Regina
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Ula
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Anthony
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Necoo
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Jacob
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Lauren
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Suhail Hany
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Megan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Puput
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Todd Johnson
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Connor
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Frederic
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Wallis
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Eartha
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Mia
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Isla
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Susan
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Lydia
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Kelly
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Mary
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Agatha
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Jacky
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Blanche
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Caroline
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Hedda
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Jake
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By William
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Noah
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Erin
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Emma
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Selena
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Elma
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Margaret
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Necoo
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Charlotte
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Margaret
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Aaliyah
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Eartha
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Andy
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Michael
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Liam
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Delia
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Oliver
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Olivia
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Steve
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Franklin
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Franklin
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Xanthe
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Frederica
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Caroline
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Edith
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Belly
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Xanthe
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By William
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Agatha
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Victoria
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Yuri
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Joe
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Andy
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Sandy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Caitlin
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Oscar
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Andrew
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Gilbert
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Connor
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Erin
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Todd Johnson
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Ingrid
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Susan
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Leila
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Steve
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Liam
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Donna
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By James
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Charlie
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Liam
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Isabella
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Freda
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Ivy
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Freda
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Freda
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Charlotte
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Rachel
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Charlie
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Gary
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Emily
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Odelette
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Skylar Davis
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Charlie
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Gilbert
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Elma
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Xanthe
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Necoo
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Agnes
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Oliver
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Sarah
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Todd Johnson
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Bethany
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Eartha
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By James
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Carol
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Carolina Franco
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Ida
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Hedda
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Mason
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Quintina
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Mason
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Zanna
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Gilbert
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Caroline
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Andy
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Margaret
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Hazel
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Suhail Hany
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Andy
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Anonymous
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Jack
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Daniel
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Erin
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Oliver
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Heather
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Kumar
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Ida
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Ivy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Skylar Davis
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Megan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Blanche
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Zora
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Daniel
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Ethan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Hedy
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Donna
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Frederica
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Kyle
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Valerie
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Yuri
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Candice
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Joseph
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Genevieve
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Isla
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Olivia
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Mary
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Elma
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Anonymous
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Hedda
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Mary
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Zanna
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Freda
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Dorothy
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Callum
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Heather
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Ina
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Hedwig
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Sarah
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Queena
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Zora
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Agnes
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Tom
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Puput
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
By Jack
at 2022-09-24T19:52
at 2022-09-24T19:52
By Robert
at 2022-09-22T15:11
at 2022-09-22T15:11
Related Posts
97W GW
By William
at 2022-06-29T09:35
at 2022-06-29T09:35
天氣小觀:熱鬧啦,模式預報週末雙颱共舞
By Sierra Rose
at 2022-06-27T20:24
at 2022-06-27T20:24
天氣小觀:一週後期,啟動追風模式
By Zanna
at 2022-06-22T20:30
at 2022-06-22T20:30
天氣小觀:未來一週,出梅盛夏。
By Poppy
at 2022-06-16T20:00
at 2022-06-16T20:00
台美日韓聯手 清楚抓出雷雨胞
By Dora
at 2022-06-12T11:33
at 2022-06-12T11:33