天氣小觀:大氣系統模式調弱了一些 - 颱風討論
By Tom
at 2021-12-22T21:12
at 2021-12-22T21:12
Table of Contents
昨天和今天模式預報相比,變化頗大,主要是模式未來一週的大氣系統調弱
當然也包括這兩天的外海氣旋更弱,天氣轉穩定。
不過最重要的還是週日深夜到週一開始的的冷氣團了。
模式預報調弱了週六南下的蒙古冷高壓,
中心氣壓由原先1060百帕以上調弱至1055百帕左右;
而此西伯利亞/蒙古冷高壓來自於中亞脊的出現,
使西伯利亞貝加爾湖以東空高冷渦旋往東北亞南下,
然而,
這次的東亞寒潮爆發並沒有北極渦旋的鼎力支援,
少了冬季大魔王的加持,靠的就是大氣中高層西風槽的力道了;
模式預報調弱的就是西風槽轉直延伸的力道了。
最新模式顯示中亞脊北伸對應東亞西風槽南延時,歐洲東部的冷槽打擊太快,
導致中亞脊迅速崩潰,脊前的偏北氣流變成偏西氣流,影響了東亞西風槽的南壓。
不過,隆冬的西伯利亞/蒙古冷高壓不用南下,勢力可以直下東亞沿海抵達台灣,
儘管模式調弱,但依舊顯示週六冷高壓還在蒙古,
北部就一路下滑至16度甚至更低的強冷空氣,中部入夜也是開始抖,只有南部要等等。
這就是隆冬一個西風槽就能堆積強烈冷高壓的威力。
再來就是看是否會再變化了,還要再觀察,
不過即使更長期預報來看,
冬季大魔王又繼續增強了,明年初北極渦旋有成超級渦旋趨勢,
中心百帕高度場目前預報將達14900米以下,屆時再留意了。
(簡單說說囉)
--
當然也包括這兩天的外海氣旋更弱,天氣轉穩定。
不過最重要的還是週日深夜到週一開始的的冷氣團了。
模式預報調弱了週六南下的蒙古冷高壓,
中心氣壓由原先1060百帕以上調弱至1055百帕左右;
而此西伯利亞/蒙古冷高壓來自於中亞脊的出現,
使西伯利亞貝加爾湖以東空高冷渦旋往東北亞南下,
然而,
這次的東亞寒潮爆發並沒有北極渦旋的鼎力支援,
少了冬季大魔王的加持,靠的就是大氣中高層西風槽的力道了;
模式預報調弱的就是西風槽轉直延伸的力道了。
最新模式顯示中亞脊北伸對應東亞西風槽南延時,歐洲東部的冷槽打擊太快,
導致中亞脊迅速崩潰,脊前的偏北氣流變成偏西氣流,影響了東亞西風槽的南壓。
不過,隆冬的西伯利亞/蒙古冷高壓不用南下,勢力可以直下東亞沿海抵達台灣,
儘管模式調弱,但依舊顯示週六冷高壓還在蒙古,
北部就一路下滑至16度甚至更低的強冷空氣,中部入夜也是開始抖,只有南部要等等。
這就是隆冬一個西風槽就能堆積強烈冷高壓的威力。
再來就是看是否會再變化了,還要再觀察,
不過即使更長期預報來看,
冬季大魔王又繼續增強了,明年初北極渦旋有成超級渦旋趨勢,
中心百帕高度場目前預報將達14900米以下,屆時再留意了。
(簡單說說囉)
--
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