天氣速觀:凌晨零點,蒙古冷高壓來了 - 颱風討論
By Dora
at 2021-12-16T16:07
at 2021-12-16T16:07
Table of Contents
目前雷伊颱風北側的副高場已經出現缺口,但這缺口並不會讓雷伊颱風偏北,
雷伊颱風由大氣中層,西邊的副高單體導引持續偏西進入南海,
進入南海後,由南支槽與颱風夾擊下,西側副高單體崩潰,雷伊颱風才會轉北。
模式預報,週五一到,凌晨零點起蒙古冷高壓來了,
冬季通常只要蒙古冷高壓從蒙古高原直下到東亞,就是東亞寒潮爆發。
原先歐洲認為從甘肅走廊擠出來的西北冷高壓,也重新調整蒙古冷高壓直下東亞。
蒙古冷高壓的威力總是強於新疆冷高壓(從甘肅走廊擠出來),
不過新疆冷高壓南下,台灣往往是更乾燥的輻射冷卻。
從歐洲模式來看,蒙古冷高壓先南下,新疆冷高壓接續,
因此先濕轉乾,有蒙古冷高壓打前鋒,台灣應該又是一波冷氣團了;
有雷伊颱風在南邊,新疆冷高壓的乾空氣會變得不夠乾。
整體來看,
週六清晨冷空氣威力最強,冷氣團應該就達標。
週日清晨,新疆冷高壓南下,雖然乾冷,但因為雷伊颱風潑水,
輻射冷卻環境變差,冷氣團達標較不容易。
而,
週五~週六前半蒙古冷高壓的濕冷氣團,北部東北部多雨。
週六後半~週日新疆冷高壓的乾冷氣團被雷伊颱風潑水,東部較容易有雨,其他就偏陰天。
簡單來看,週五~週日,一連三天主要受冬季冷高壓系統影響;
週一起,雷伊颱風轉北逐漸併入西風帶,通常只有冬春季節,颱風會在"南海"併入西風帶(被摧毀)。
到時再觀察囉。
(以上供參囉)
--
雷伊颱風由大氣中層,西邊的副高單體導引持續偏西進入南海,
進入南海後,由南支槽與颱風夾擊下,西側副高單體崩潰,雷伊颱風才會轉北。
模式預報,週五一到,凌晨零點起蒙古冷高壓來了,
冬季通常只要蒙古冷高壓從蒙古高原直下到東亞,就是東亞寒潮爆發。
原先歐洲認為從甘肅走廊擠出來的西北冷高壓,也重新調整蒙古冷高壓直下東亞。
蒙古冷高壓的威力總是強於新疆冷高壓(從甘肅走廊擠出來),
不過新疆冷高壓南下,台灣往往是更乾燥的輻射冷卻。
從歐洲模式來看,蒙古冷高壓先南下,新疆冷高壓接續,
因此先濕轉乾,有蒙古冷高壓打前鋒,台灣應該又是一波冷氣團了;
有雷伊颱風在南邊,新疆冷高壓的乾空氣會變得不夠乾。
整體來看,
週六清晨冷空氣威力最強,冷氣團應該就達標。
週日清晨,新疆冷高壓南下,雖然乾冷,但因為雷伊颱風潑水,
輻射冷卻環境變差,冷氣團達標較不容易。
而,
週五~週六前半蒙古冷高壓的濕冷氣團,北部東北部多雨。
週六後半~週日新疆冷高壓的乾冷氣團被雷伊颱風潑水,東部較容易有雨,其他就偏陰天。
簡單來看,週五~週日,一連三天主要受冬季冷高壓系統影響;
週一起,雷伊颱風轉北逐漸併入西風帶,通常只有冬春季節,颱風會在"南海"併入西風帶(被摧毀)。
到時再觀察囉。
(以上供參囉)
--
Tags:
颱風
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