天氣小觀:太平洋高壓強大,馬鞍颱風過後持續熱 - 颱風討論
By Irma
at 2022-08-23T20:27
at 2022-08-23T20:27
Table of Contents
93W變成的馬鞍颱風,然而,
由於模式預報未來一週太平洋高壓強大,因此馬鞍颱風持續偏西進入南海北部,
並且熱浪持續壟罩全台一週以上,短期內夏季系統處於異常強大的階段囉。
當然,
這並不表示夏季系統會持續強大,進入九月似乎大氣反轉開始,
原因是冬季系統的類東北季風出現,當然時間還久些。
有趣的是,未來一週
南方大氣低緯度太平洋高壓南側的偏東風轉強,
這表示季風槽西退,熱帶海洋回歸平靜,
北方大氣微弱蒙古高壓首次南下東亞,東亞鋒面出現,當然鋒面無法抵達台灣,
但可能會鋪陳9月秋季大氣地面秀的序曲,再觀察囉。
目前台灣北、東、南側的海溫很高,尤其東側高於平均值很多,
這也是今年無颱風接近導致結果,
如此一來9月地面秀就要好好注意囉,
太平洋高壓在高海溫下的確強大許多,但一旦類東北季風出現,這輻合就不是開玩笑的,
東北季風是穩定的蒙古冷高壓,持久性來看會破壞夏季氣旋,
但,
類東北季風游擊戰的冷高壓,反而是夏季氣旋的催化劑。
因此,模式預報9月初的地面秀有點精彩,台灣變成氣旋與類東北季風的輻合處,
北部東北部一開始就苦主?(基隆好像不用怕缺水)
至於中南部真的要靠颱風,帶起9月初的西南季風,也能大進補。
(以上供參囉)
--
由於模式預報未來一週太平洋高壓強大,因此馬鞍颱風持續偏西進入南海北部,
並且熱浪持續壟罩全台一週以上,短期內夏季系統處於異常強大的階段囉。
當然,
這並不表示夏季系統會持續強大,進入九月似乎大氣反轉開始,
原因是冬季系統的類東北季風出現,當然時間還久些。
有趣的是,未來一週
南方大氣低緯度太平洋高壓南側的偏東風轉強,
這表示季風槽西退,熱帶海洋回歸平靜,
北方大氣微弱蒙古高壓首次南下東亞,東亞鋒面出現,當然鋒面無法抵達台灣,
但可能會鋪陳9月秋季大氣地面秀的序曲,再觀察囉。
目前台灣北、東、南側的海溫很高,尤其東側高於平均值很多,
這也是今年無颱風接近導致結果,
如此一來9月地面秀就要好好注意囉,
太平洋高壓在高海溫下的確強大許多,但一旦類東北季風出現,這輻合就不是開玩笑的,
東北季風是穩定的蒙古冷高壓,持久性來看會破壞夏季氣旋,
但,
類東北季風游擊戰的冷高壓,反而是夏季氣旋的催化劑。
因此,模式預報9月初的地面秀有點精彩,台灣變成氣旋與類東北季風的輻合處,
北部東北部一開始就苦主?(基隆好像不用怕缺水)
至於中南部真的要靠颱風,帶起9月初的西南季風,也能大進補。
(以上供參囉)
--
Tags:
颱風
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