天氣小觀:模式冷氣團今夜明晨開始 - 颱風討論
By Ivy
at 2021-12-25T07:48
at 2021-12-25T07:48
Table of Contents
天氣小觀:模式冷氣團今夜明晨開始
蒙古冷高壓1057百帕準備下蒙古高原,
目前東北季風已開始影響北宜山區,冬季日夜永恆的地形雨開始;
更重要的是今晚深夜到明天開始冷氣團影響。
從高空西風帶氣流來看,
這次東亞西風槽後出現西風帶偏北氣流,這是最最酷寒的氣團,
因此華北、東北地區部分地區有出現零下20度的酷寒戰士。
然而,
這次西風槽壓的不會很深,
西風帶偏北氣流在大氣中層500百帕只到華北,700百帕也沒過長江流域,
也就是西風槽轉直延伸力道有限,但偏北氣流是關鍵;
冬季的西風帶一旦出現偏北氣流,東亞肯定是寒潮爆發,
地面場偏北氣流帶來的的極地冷氣團一路南衝,
長江流域以北幾乎都是零下冰凍,往台灣的地面極地冷氣團沿東亞沿海南下,
冷氣團和颱風的喜好路徑相反,
颱風屬暖溼氣團,路徑喜歡暖海,冷氣團路徑喜歡乾冷大陸;
因此極地氣團沿著東亞沿海而下;
極地氣團在渤海地面場還能維持冰凍,
到了黃海有一大半都升溫不凍了,到了東海減弱到冷氣團了;
當然,到台灣就是這波冷氣團了。
模式預報未來一周,冷氣團影響三天,北東部濕冷,
中南部也不會太乾,高空場並不乾燥,南支槽不會立刻被抑制,
反而有水氣過來,有助高山降雪。
抑制南支槽的冷高壓,
以西北冷高壓南下(新疆冷高壓擠甘肅走廊南下的冷高壓)的抑制效力最強,
因為西北冷高壓南下時,高空場一路的西風脊的西北氣流吹出海,
當然就不會有南支槽水氣北上的活躍。
模式顯示,一週後期,新疆冷高壓南下抑制了南支槽,
因此跨年的天氣在高空西北氣流下,東亞偏乾燥;但台灣是否乾燥又要再看看;
冬季時節,即便南支槽不活躍,但台灣南邊是副高場,副高場與西風帶對峙的西風氣流,
這是另一股急流。
只要西風槽視力沒有力壓副高場,
台灣高空就不會出現西北氣流,自然就不算太乾燥,全台天氣偏陰,
中南部也許靠暖陽驅散,但北、東部就不太一樣;
高空的西風急流是很好的輻散場,
這時,
只要東北季風強一點,北、東部就容易有地形雨。
如果是偏北的東北季風,降雨偏向北部東北部;
如果是偏東的東北季風,降雨偏向東部東北部。
換句話說,
北東部的冬晴往往靠的就是乾燥的西北氣流,
但,
春天就不同了,春天高空場出現的西北氣流,由於地面場冷暖空氣大戰,對流特性加強,
往往揚起沙塵到高空,變成沙塵暴,
春晴,在沒有冷暖大戰的鋒面影響時,就可見了。
此外,最新長期模式預報又大改了,
北太平洋大暖脊會在一月上旬出現,北美加拿大屆時看來將陷入冰風暴了。
不過北極渦旋似乎還是很克制,對亞洲這邊再觀察囉。
(以上供參囉)
--
蒙古冷高壓1057百帕準備下蒙古高原,
目前東北季風已開始影響北宜山區,冬季日夜永恆的地形雨開始;
更重要的是今晚深夜到明天開始冷氣團影響。
從高空西風帶氣流來看,
這次東亞西風槽後出現西風帶偏北氣流,這是最最酷寒的氣團,
因此華北、東北地區部分地區有出現零下20度的酷寒戰士。
然而,
這次西風槽壓的不會很深,
西風帶偏北氣流在大氣中層500百帕只到華北,700百帕也沒過長江流域,
也就是西風槽轉直延伸力道有限,但偏北氣流是關鍵;
冬季的西風帶一旦出現偏北氣流,東亞肯定是寒潮爆發,
地面場偏北氣流帶來的的極地冷氣團一路南衝,
長江流域以北幾乎都是零下冰凍,往台灣的地面極地冷氣團沿東亞沿海南下,
冷氣團和颱風的喜好路徑相反,
颱風屬暖溼氣團,路徑喜歡暖海,冷氣團路徑喜歡乾冷大陸;
因此極地氣團沿著東亞沿海而下;
極地氣團在渤海地面場還能維持冰凍,
到了黃海有一大半都升溫不凍了,到了東海減弱到冷氣團了;
當然,到台灣就是這波冷氣團了。
模式預報未來一周,冷氣團影響三天,北東部濕冷,
中南部也不會太乾,高空場並不乾燥,南支槽不會立刻被抑制,
反而有水氣過來,有助高山降雪。
抑制南支槽的冷高壓,
以西北冷高壓南下(新疆冷高壓擠甘肅走廊南下的冷高壓)的抑制效力最強,
因為西北冷高壓南下時,高空場一路的西風脊的西北氣流吹出海,
當然就不會有南支槽水氣北上的活躍。
模式顯示,一週後期,新疆冷高壓南下抑制了南支槽,
因此跨年的天氣在高空西北氣流下,東亞偏乾燥;但台灣是否乾燥又要再看看;
冬季時節,即便南支槽不活躍,但台灣南邊是副高場,副高場與西風帶對峙的西風氣流,
這是另一股急流。
只要西風槽視力沒有力壓副高場,
台灣高空就不會出現西北氣流,自然就不算太乾燥,全台天氣偏陰,
中南部也許靠暖陽驅散,但北、東部就不太一樣;
高空的西風急流是很好的輻散場,
這時,
只要東北季風強一點,北、東部就容易有地形雨。
如果是偏北的東北季風,降雨偏向北部東北部;
如果是偏東的東北季風,降雨偏向東部東北部。
換句話說,
北東部的冬晴往往靠的就是乾燥的西北氣流,
但,
春天就不同了,春天高空場出現的西北氣流,由於地面場冷暖空氣大戰,對流特性加強,
往往揚起沙塵到高空,變成沙塵暴,
春晴,在沒有冷暖大戰的鋒面影響時,就可見了。
此外,最新長期模式預報又大改了,
北太平洋大暖脊會在一月上旬出現,北美加拿大屆時看來將陷入冰風暴了。
不過北極渦旋似乎還是很克制,對亞洲這邊再觀察囉。
(以上供參囉)
--
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颱風
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