天氣小觀:熱鬧啦,模式預報週末雙颱共舞 - 颱風討論
By Sierra Rose
at 2022-06-27T20:24
at 2022-06-27T20:24
Table of Contents
目前東風波擾動正通過菲律賓進入南海,
後天起正式與西南季風連結,南海西南季風轉活躍,
季風槽也轉為倒向季風槽呈現東北西南向,
後面菲律賓東南東方的另一個東風波擾動順勢連結到季風槽的東北側,
於是台灣一東偏北,一南偏西各有1個熱帶低壓發展起來,
目前變數還有待觀察,
但夾在兩氣旋之間,就是相對穩定,
模式預報未來一週主要還是午後熱對流雨的發展。
由於季風槽從"西北西-東南東"轉為"東-西"再轉"東北-西南",
因此台灣的風場從東南風轉為東風,再轉為東北風,背風低壓落於台灣西半部,
但後天起隨著擾動發展,外環雲雨帶移進東半部,情況又變得複雜,
總體來說全台不穩定中帶著相對穩定,就看擾動發展起來後的路徑。
路徑來看,西南邊的擾動發展早,強度優於東北邊,因此,
因此東北邊擾動受影響往北的路徑趨勢就比較明朗,
反觀,
西南邊擾動(強的一方就是任性),路徑上的變數就比較大些,
接近台灣的話,中南部就要注意囉。
再觀察囉
(以上供參囉)
--
後天起正式與西南季風連結,南海西南季風轉活躍,
季風槽也轉為倒向季風槽呈現東北西南向,
後面菲律賓東南東方的另一個東風波擾動順勢連結到季風槽的東北側,
於是台灣一東偏北,一南偏西各有1個熱帶低壓發展起來,
目前變數還有待觀察,
但夾在兩氣旋之間,就是相對穩定,
模式預報未來一週主要還是午後熱對流雨的發展。
由於季風槽從"西北西-東南東"轉為"東-西"再轉"東北-西南",
因此台灣的風場從東南風轉為東風,再轉為東北風,背風低壓落於台灣西半部,
但後天起隨著擾動發展,外環雲雨帶移進東半部,情況又變得複雜,
總體來說全台不穩定中帶著相對穩定,就看擾動發展起來後的路徑。
路徑來看,西南邊的擾動發展早,強度優於東北邊,因此,
因此東北邊擾動受影響往北的路徑趨勢就比較明朗,
反觀,
西南邊擾動(強的一方就是任性),路徑上的變數就比較大些,
接近台灣的話,中南部就要注意囉。
再觀察囉
(以上供參囉)
--
Tags:
颱風
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