天氣小觀:物換星移,未來一週,夏天搖 - 颱風討論
By Skylar Davis
at 2022-05-28T15:11
at 2022-05-28T15:11
Table of Contents
天氣小觀:物換星移,未來一週,夏天搖
西南季風上場後就是不一樣,夏季大氣系統陸海空3D到位,開始取得主導權;
模式預報未來一週:
南亞高壓搖啊搖,推擠西風噴流北跳;
一旦西風噴流北跳,就象徵的台灣梅雨季的結束,長江流域梅雨季的開始
太平洋高壓搖啊搖,從台灣往華南建立暖高壓中心,
一旦暖高壓中心建立,台灣進入太平洋高壓的下沉中心,如此就是熱夏浪來襲了。
西南季風噴流搖啊搖,清除華南沿岸到台灣附近的殘餘冷空氣,繼續推進內陸;
一旦西南季風帶來的熱帶海洋氣團包圍後,午後山區熱雷雨也將開始。
綜觀來看,未來一週台灣的大氣環境物換星移,
冬季系統完全退出,夏季系統完全掌控,
這速度可說非常之快(就看西風噴流是否北跳了!)。
冬季系統的大衰的原因雖然歸咎於北極渦旋大衰弱..
或許,北極渦旋今夏可能會瀕死..,再觀察了;
然而,
真正冬季系統對南方的力道減弱原因在於模式預報修正掉一個阻塞高壓,
目前預報僅存鄂霍次克海北側的阻塞高壓,
梅雨季節,北方大氣環境的阻塞高壓越少,冷暖氣團交會的頻率越低,
有可能導致長江流域的梅雨量減少或是長江流域的梅雨遲到!
(不過台灣倒是先喝水了:台灣的5月梅雨季橫跨在華南汛期與東亞梅雨之間;
今年台灣靠著華南雲雨帶喝了不少)
因此,
是否北方大氣環境的阻塞高壓真的只剩一個的話,而且這個還不在中亞北方的話,
如此對長江流域的梅雨將有影響;台灣也可能提早出梅;
有待觀察了。
(以上供參囉)
--
西南季風上場後就是不一樣,夏季大氣系統陸海空3D到位,開始取得主導權;
模式預報未來一週:
南亞高壓搖啊搖,推擠西風噴流北跳;
一旦西風噴流北跳,就象徵的台灣梅雨季的結束,長江流域梅雨季的開始
太平洋高壓搖啊搖,從台灣往華南建立暖高壓中心,
一旦暖高壓中心建立,台灣進入太平洋高壓的下沉中心,如此就是熱夏浪來襲了。
西南季風噴流搖啊搖,清除華南沿岸到台灣附近的殘餘冷空氣,繼續推進內陸;
一旦西南季風帶來的熱帶海洋氣團包圍後,午後山區熱雷雨也將開始。
綜觀來看,未來一週台灣的大氣環境物換星移,
冬季系統完全退出,夏季系統完全掌控,
這速度可說非常之快(就看西風噴流是否北跳了!)。
冬季系統的大衰的原因雖然歸咎於北極渦旋大衰弱..
或許,北極渦旋今夏可能會瀕死..,再觀察了;
然而,
真正冬季系統對南方的力道減弱原因在於模式預報修正掉一個阻塞高壓,
目前預報僅存鄂霍次克海北側的阻塞高壓,
梅雨季節,北方大氣環境的阻塞高壓越少,冷暖氣團交會的頻率越低,
有可能導致長江流域的梅雨量減少或是長江流域的梅雨遲到!
(不過台灣倒是先喝水了:台灣的5月梅雨季橫跨在華南汛期與東亞梅雨之間;
今年台灣靠著華南雲雨帶喝了不少)
因此,
是否北方大氣環境的阻塞高壓真的只剩一個的話,而且這個還不在中亞北方的話,
如此對長江流域的梅雨將有影響;台灣也可能提早出梅;
有待觀察了。
(以上供參囉)
--
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