天氣小觀:長預報(參考),10天後極渦最外圍觸台 - 颱風討論
By Kelly
at 2021-10-26T20:07
at 2021-10-26T20:07
Table of Contents
天氣小觀:長期預報(時間久,參考),10天過後北極渦旋最外圍觸碰台灣
下週就是深秋11月,東亞寒潮爆發的季節開始,
今年的冬季系統在前半冬時期(跨年前之冬)來勢洶洶,
模式預報,冬季系統新一波攻勢已經開始醞釀,大概需要一週,
長期預報10天過後,北極渦旋最外圍抵達北台灣高空。
~
由於! 長期預報的時間久,準確度有待觀察,
因此往前看此一現象,也就是11月初,一週過後:
模式預報,
一週過後,西伯利亞高空冷渦旋爆發,極地冷氣團急速增強,
模式顯示11月初,西伯利亞大氣地面層可能出現零下30度。
在西伯利亞高空冷渦旋大爆發的環境下,蒙古11月3日起直接被寒潮壟罩。
再往南就是東亞了。
~
由於! 一週過後11月初的時間還有一段時間,準確度先不予置評,
因此再往前看此一現象,也就是未來一週:
模式預報,
未來一週歐洲大氣中層有阻塞高壓形成的趨勢,然而,
阻塞不成被西風帶緩緩往西推往中亞變成中亞大脊,
中亞大脊讓西伯利亞高空冷渦旋爆發,北極冷凍氣團與西伯利亞極地冷凍氣團大結合,
由於西伯利亞乾燥大陸+北極冷凍氣團結合下,天時地利的深秋長夜,
極地冷氣團很快在西伯利亞急凍,是否南衝,就要看長期預報準不準了。
目前長期模式看來,北極渦旋最外圍觸碰,看來東亞可能面臨首波寒潮爆發了。
不過模式有可能再改囉,到底會不會這麼快就碰到台灣,再觀察囉。
~~
儘管如此,
北極渦旋和颱風完全不同層級,颱風難預報,北極渦旋預報比颱風準多了,
東亞還是準備挫嘞等比較實在了...
至於台灣,看暖海和副高了。
(長期預報怕怕參考囉)
美軍模式 0~14天 北極渦旋勢力變化: https://imgur.com/a/LIGPa2u
--
下週就是深秋11月,東亞寒潮爆發的季節開始,
今年的冬季系統在前半冬時期(跨年前之冬)來勢洶洶,
模式預報,冬季系統新一波攻勢已經開始醞釀,大概需要一週,
長期預報10天過後,北極渦旋最外圍抵達北台灣高空。
~
由於! 長期預報的時間久,準確度有待觀察,
因此往前看此一現象,也就是11月初,一週過後:
模式預報,
一週過後,西伯利亞高空冷渦旋爆發,極地冷氣團急速增強,
模式顯示11月初,西伯利亞大氣地面層可能出現零下30度。
在西伯利亞高空冷渦旋大爆發的環境下,蒙古11月3日起直接被寒潮壟罩。
再往南就是東亞了。
~
由於! 一週過後11月初的時間還有一段時間,準確度先不予置評,
因此再往前看此一現象,也就是未來一週:
模式預報,
未來一週歐洲大氣中層有阻塞高壓形成的趨勢,然而,
阻塞不成被西風帶緩緩往西推往中亞變成中亞大脊,
中亞大脊讓西伯利亞高空冷渦旋爆發,北極冷凍氣團與西伯利亞極地冷凍氣團大結合,
由於西伯利亞乾燥大陸+北極冷凍氣團結合下,天時地利的深秋長夜,
極地冷氣團很快在西伯利亞急凍,是否南衝,就要看長期預報準不準了。
目前長期模式看來,北極渦旋最外圍觸碰,看來東亞可能面臨首波寒潮爆發了。
不過模式有可能再改囉,到底會不會這麼快就碰到台灣,再觀察囉。
~~
儘管如此,
北極渦旋和颱風完全不同層級,颱風難預報,北極渦旋預報比颱風準多了,
東亞還是準備挫嘞等比較實在了...
至於台灣,看暖海和副高了。
(長期預報怕怕參考囉)
美軍模式 0~14天 北極渦旋勢力變化: https://imgur.com/a/LIGPa2u
--
Tags:
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