天氣速觀:舒力基下沉氣流,明晚外圍環流進來 - 颱風討論
By Todd Johnson
at 2021-04-20T13:54
at 2021-04-20T13:54
Table of Contents
現在起,只看降雨了:
1. 最近即將降雨:舒力基外圍環流
今天舒力基的下沉氣流已經開始影響台灣了,
從500百帕高度場可以很清楚的看到西風槽遠去,西風脊接上,
因此西風槽沒牽走,現在的西風脊排斥它,
在缺乏太平洋副高的母愛導引,舒力基速度很緩慢。
到底現在還是大氣高空秀的季節,高空環境變化快,
模式顯示,明起有華南短槽東移,48小時內會接上舒力基,
因此週四下半天以後,舒力基要準備轉東了。
對台灣來說,週三~週四舒力基的外圍環流主要影響東部,
週五舒力基東移,東北風和偏北風下來,北部降雨會比較明顯,
而中部和南部則靠背風低壓和熱力作用發展。
2. 下次降雨:中緯度系統鋒面
原先模式認為舒力基東移後會接上一波南支槽東移,
最新模式修掉了此一情況,這對台灣降雨不利。
不過,
中緯度系統還算活躍,因此週日鋒面預報依舊會壓到台灣,
但降雨的"量能"比原先小了許多,不過各地還是有機會降雨。
不過,好一些的更長期模式顯示,
一週過後華南有機會出現滯留鋒,彌補先前被舒力基攪亂的滯留鋒。
當然還要再觀察了。
(以上供參囉)
--
1. 最近即將降雨:舒力基外圍環流
今天舒力基的下沉氣流已經開始影響台灣了,
從500百帕高度場可以很清楚的看到西風槽遠去,西風脊接上,
因此西風槽沒牽走,現在的西風脊排斥它,
在缺乏太平洋副高的母愛導引,舒力基速度很緩慢。
到底現在還是大氣高空秀的季節,高空環境變化快,
模式顯示,明起有華南短槽東移,48小時內會接上舒力基,
因此週四下半天以後,舒力基要準備轉東了。
對台灣來說,週三~週四舒力基的外圍環流主要影響東部,
週五舒力基東移,東北風和偏北風下來,北部降雨會比較明顯,
而中部和南部則靠背風低壓和熱力作用發展。
2. 下次降雨:中緯度系統鋒面
原先模式認為舒力基東移後會接上一波南支槽東移,
最新模式修掉了此一情況,這對台灣降雨不利。
不過,
中緯度系統還算活躍,因此週日鋒面預報依舊會壓到台灣,
但降雨的"量能"比原先小了許多,不過各地還是有機會降雨。
不過,好一些的更長期模式顯示,
一週過後華南有機會出現滯留鋒,彌補先前被舒力基攪亂的滯留鋒。
當然還要再觀察了。
(以上供參囉)
--
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