氣候暖化破壞全球糧食供應量 - 生態環境討論

來源: http://e-info.org.tw/node/28823

摘譯自2007年12月3日ENS美國，華府報導；謝芳怡編譯；蔡麗伶審校

美國內布拉斯加州的玉米受烈日烤曬而枯萎。 圖片來源：University of Nebraska–
Lincoln3份最新研究報告指出，由於氣候複雜因素，可能讓全球農業面臨急遽且無可預期
的衰退，這也是科學家至今所擔憂的問題。

科學家預估，在未來50年，氣候變化將讓發展中國家失去近3億3400萬英畝的主要耕地。
在本世紀中期以後，氣溫持續上升，預計將升高華氏9度以上，進而對北方農作物產生不
良的影響，全球將成為危險地帶。

研究報告的作者們表示，現存的研究不足以解釋週期性高溫乾旱或大雨的劇烈變化、疾病
或雜草蔓延的多重影響，以及其他生態混亂的現象，而由於氣候變遷，這些現象預計在未
來會更常見。

從過去65萬年以來的紀錄來看，今日溫室二氧化碳的排放量，已較工業革命之前增加了
30%，而二氧化碳的排放，主要來自於煤炭、石油和天然氣的燃燒。3日在峇里島召開，為
期兩週的聯合國氣候會議，將針對控制人類溫室氣體排放量協議進行討論，該協議將自
2012年京都議定書期滿後開始實施。


Warming Climate Undermines World Food Supply

Authorship: WASHINGTON, DC, December 3, 2007 (ENS)

Global agriculture could go into steep, unanticipated declines due to
complications that scientists have so far inadequately considered, say three
new reports authored by U.S. and international researchers.

Developing countries may lose 334 million acres of prime farm land to climate
change in the next 50 years, scientists estimate. After mid-century,
continuing temperature rises, expected to be nine degrees Fahrenheit or more
by then, are expected to start adversely affecting northern crops as well,
tipping the whole world into a danger zone, the authors say.

The authors say that existing research fails to account for seasonal extremes
of heat, drought or rain, multiplier effects of spreading diseases or weeds,
and other ecological upsets. All are believed to be more likely in the future
due to climate change.

Levels of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide today are nearly 30 percent
higher than they were before the start of the Industrial Revolution, based on
records extending back 650,000 years. Carbon dioxide is emitted by the
burning of coal, oil and gas.

The two week UN climate conference that opened today in Bali is expected to
result in negotiations on an agreement to curb human emissions of greenhouse
gases. The agreement would begin after 2012 when the first phase of the Kyoto
Protocol expires.


全文及圖片詳見：ENS


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