BBC News中文FB:預報降雨機率70%的真義 - 颱風討論
By Kyle
at 2022-01-12T22:37
at 2022-01-12T22:37
Table of Contents
https://fb.watch/auDeRk80DG/
這段影片一開頭就提到:
「手機上的天氣應用程式讓我們可以隨時獲取及時預報
但要準確理解當中的資料並不容易」
影片也請BBC自家的氣象主播來說明:
「重要的是要記住,這些預測通常是基於概率。
換句話說,它們只是估計某些天氣事件會不會發生。
這意味著總有一些不確定性、一些變化。」
「氣溫通常是相當準確的,但陣雨則出了名地難以精準確定。
這是因為陣雨的行程非常快,覆蓋的區域很小,
而且風向稍有變化,它們就會偏離預期路線、錯過你所在位置。」
它還提到預報降雨機率的真正意義:
「假設你的應用程式說有70%機率會下雨,
70%讓你可以確定有多大可能會下雨...
這不代表當日或這一個小時70%的時間都會下雨,
也不代表這一地區70%的地方會下雨。」
==
我的說明與評論:
1.主播說「陣雨則出了名地難以精準確定」,
原文是Showers are notoriously difficult to pinpoint.
用到notoriously這麼強烈的字眼,就知道有多難了。
2.雖說這對板友來說是基本知識,但對於少來的人仍很重要;
加上這段影片畫面的表達方式不錯,所以貼過來跟大家分享。
--
這段影片一開頭就提到:
「手機上的天氣應用程式讓我們可以隨時獲取及時預報
但要準確理解當中的資料並不容易」
影片也請BBC自家的氣象主播來說明:
「重要的是要記住,這些預測通常是基於概率。
換句話說,它們只是估計某些天氣事件會不會發生。
這意味著總有一些不確定性、一些變化。」
「氣溫通常是相當準確的,但陣雨則出了名地難以精準確定。
這是因為陣雨的行程非常快,覆蓋的區域很小,
而且風向稍有變化,它們就會偏離預期路線、錯過你所在位置。」
它還提到預報降雨機率的真正意義:
「假設你的應用程式說有70%機率會下雨,
70%讓你可以確定有多大可能會下雨...
這不代表當日或這一個小時70%的時間都會下雨,
也不代表這一地區70%的地方會下雨。」
==
我的說明與評論:
1.主播說「陣雨則出了名地難以精準確定」,
原文是Showers are notoriously difficult to pinpoint.
用到notoriously這麼強烈的字眼,就知道有多難了。
2.雖說這對板友來說是基本知識,但對於少來的人仍很重要;
加上這段影片畫面的表達方式不錯,所以貼過來跟大家分享。
--
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颱風
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