天氣速觀:最新模式再改,後期中亞脊吸引力得勝 - 颱風討論
By Anthony
at 2022-01-09T07:35
at 2022-01-09T07:35
Table of Contents
天氣速觀:最新模式預報再改後期的阻塞高壓不往北美,中亞脊吸引力得勝
北太平洋脊形成的阻塞高壓已經停留在亞洲遠東半島高空一段時間,
原先預報阻塞高壓與中亞脊短暫結合後,將重新被西風帶推動往北美崩潰,
結果,
最新模式中亞脊吸引力得勝,今起第二次結合後持續時間增加,
即使分開後,竟再預報還有第三次結合!
且!
由於第二次結合時間拉長,對應的東亞大槽活躍時間也拉長了。
模式預報,未來一週,
亞洲遠東半島的阻塞高壓持續停留,今起開始和東移的中亞脊結合,
受結合脊影響,東北亞的高空冷渦旋轉直,
蒙古冷高壓中心南下,週二、週四各一個,因此週二起開始受冷氣團影響到週五;
且,東亞大槽活躍時間拉長,影響台灣的冷氣團強度有機會增強至強烈冷氣團。
事實上,
隆冬季節南方就已由西伯利亞/蒙古冷高壓勢力壟罩,
差別在於冷高壓中心是否南下建立在南方。
中亞脊的出現與活躍,就是推動冷高壓中心南下的滑冰場。
由於模式預報後期中亞脊和阻塞高壓有第三次結合,
且目前顯示結合後會往北亞跑,如此,就要留意是否在中亞崩潰了,
如果阻塞高壓在中亞崩潰,對應就是東亞寒潮猛烈爆發;
雖然隆冬季節,東亞寒潮爆發很多見,但阻塞高壓崩潰的寒潮爆發更為猛烈,
對台灣來說,
有阻塞高壓崩潰的東亞寒潮爆發,就容易出現寒流。
不過時間還很久遠,超過十天,
屆時再觀察就好,
一週預報也還沒有出現阻塞高壓往中亞崩潰,也許模式會再改囉。
(快速說說囉)
--
北太平洋脊形成的阻塞高壓已經停留在亞洲遠東半島高空一段時間,
原先預報阻塞高壓與中亞脊短暫結合後,將重新被西風帶推動往北美崩潰,
結果,
最新模式中亞脊吸引力得勝,今起第二次結合後持續時間增加,
即使分開後,竟再預報還有第三次結合!
且!
由於第二次結合時間拉長,對應的東亞大槽活躍時間也拉長了。
模式預報,未來一週,
亞洲遠東半島的阻塞高壓持續停留,今起開始和東移的中亞脊結合,
受結合脊影響,東北亞的高空冷渦旋轉直,
蒙古冷高壓中心南下,週二、週四各一個,因此週二起開始受冷氣團影響到週五;
且,東亞大槽活躍時間拉長,影響台灣的冷氣團強度有機會增強至強烈冷氣團。
事實上,
隆冬季節南方就已由西伯利亞/蒙古冷高壓勢力壟罩,
差別在於冷高壓中心是否南下建立在南方。
中亞脊的出現與活躍,就是推動冷高壓中心南下的滑冰場。
由於模式預報後期中亞脊和阻塞高壓有第三次結合,
且目前顯示結合後會往北亞跑,如此,就要留意是否在中亞崩潰了,
如果阻塞高壓在中亞崩潰,對應就是東亞寒潮猛烈爆發;
雖然隆冬季節,東亞寒潮爆發很多見,但阻塞高壓崩潰的寒潮爆發更為猛烈,
對台灣來說,
有阻塞高壓崩潰的東亞寒潮爆發,就容易出現寒流。
不過時間還很久遠,超過十天,
屆時再觀察就好,
一週預報也還沒有出現阻塞高壓往中亞崩潰,也許模式會再改囉。
(快速說說囉)
--
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