天氣小觀:今起一連四天冷氣團 - 颱風討論
By Charlie
at 2022-01-11T08:28
at 2022-01-11T08:28
Table of Contents
天氣小觀:今起一連四天冷氣團
冬季系統發動,西風帶中亞脊對應東亞槽轉直,冷氣團南下,
先看平流層北極渦旋的形勢,
模式顯示,北極渦旋增強減弱微調,強度可說在強烈和超級強烈徘徊;
這表示北極平流層大氣系統短期沒有異常事件,去年底冬季至今,
北極渦旋都穩穩地,北極海冰情況也非常良好。
再看對流層高空,冬季對流最弱,對流層高層與地面大氣很少直接作用,
因此,
冬季對流層高空一般都看大氣中層500百帕(或中低層700百帕噴流);
夏季對流層高空一般看大氣中層500百帕或中高層250百帕噴流。(夏季可以不看平流層)
模式預報未來一周大氣中層,今起東北亞高空冷渦旋轉直,
由於東北亞高空冷渦旋與西伯利亞冷渦旋連成帶狀,
因此東北亞高空冷渦旋轉直的過程有兩次,
當然,
這是由於中亞脊與亞洲遠東半島阻塞高壓即結合失敗後,中亞脊東移的結果。
而兩次轉直的結果,冷氣團影響台灣一連四天,從今天到週五。
在隆冬季節,好像也不意外了。
模式後期,最新顯示依舊維持新的中亞脊再和亞洲遠東阻塞高壓結合(第三次嘗試結合),
但長期模式真的變很快,原先中亞脊併遠東阻高的大氣形勢,變成:
中亞脊自成一個新的阻塞高壓,再把遠東阻高併過來,
然後,入侵北極!
對流層向上影響平流層,於是一週過後北極渦旋趨向減弱的趨勢。
不過,
以目前的長期模式看來只是稍微減弱,這個大氣中層的暖高壓還沒有能力真正撼動隆冬的北極平流層。
(以上供參囉)
--
冬季系統發動,西風帶中亞脊對應東亞槽轉直,冷氣團南下,
先看平流層北極渦旋的形勢,
模式顯示,北極渦旋增強減弱微調,強度可說在強烈和超級強烈徘徊;
這表示北極平流層大氣系統短期沒有異常事件,去年底冬季至今,
北極渦旋都穩穩地,北極海冰情況也非常良好。
再看對流層高空,冬季對流最弱,對流層高層與地面大氣很少直接作用,
因此,
冬季對流層高空一般都看大氣中層500百帕(或中低層700百帕噴流);
夏季對流層高空一般看大氣中層500百帕或中高層250百帕噴流。(夏季可以不看平流層)
模式預報未來一周大氣中層,今起東北亞高空冷渦旋轉直,
由於東北亞高空冷渦旋與西伯利亞冷渦旋連成帶狀,
因此東北亞高空冷渦旋轉直的過程有兩次,
當然,
這是由於中亞脊與亞洲遠東半島阻塞高壓即結合失敗後,中亞脊東移的結果。
而兩次轉直的結果,冷氣團影響台灣一連四天,從今天到週五。
在隆冬季節,好像也不意外了。
模式後期,最新顯示依舊維持新的中亞脊再和亞洲遠東阻塞高壓結合(第三次嘗試結合),
但長期模式真的變很快,原先中亞脊併遠東阻高的大氣形勢,變成:
中亞脊自成一個新的阻塞高壓,再把遠東阻高併過來,
然後,入侵北極!
對流層向上影響平流層,於是一週過後北極渦旋趨向減弱的趨勢。
不過,
以目前的長期模式看來只是稍微減弱,這個大氣中層的暖高壓還沒有能力真正撼動隆冬的北極平流層。
(以上供參囉)
--
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