天氣小觀:下週二,第3波滯留鋒梅雨 - 颱風討論
By Aaliyah
at 2022-06-03T07:44
at 2022-06-03T07:44
Table of Contents
五月中與五月下旬的兩波滯留鋒梅雨過後,
目前北方大氣環境僅存1個阻塞高壓,位於鄂霍次克海北方,
因此,冷空氣南下的主力偏向東亞沿海,西南季風推動梅雨鋒面往北推,
東亞梅雨鋒面向東往太平洋長延伸;
不過,
過渡季節大氣總是難以捉摸..
今起開始有了變化,第2個阻塞高壓即將出現,位於北亞,
且長期模式預報甚至還有西西伯利亞的第3個阻塞高壓出現,
北方大環境的重大改變,情況當然就有所不同了,
冷空氣的力道加強,冷暖重新大戰。
今天起中亞的暖脊將逐漸深入極地建立阻塞高壓,
冷高壓已從中亞北方從蒙古西側南下,再與新疆甘肅融雪後的冷空氣會合,
冷暖在四川盆地交戰後將進戰區推至華南內陸;
不過儘管如此,仍不足以推動滯留鋒抵達台灣,
這時就要等待東亞溫帶氣旋的出現,
也就是第1個阻塞高壓發揮力量,割離低壓划向東北亞,
東北亞高空出現冷渦旋延伸西風槽,地面東亞沿海出現溫帶氣旋東移,
至此,
梅雨鋒面開始南壓而來..
然而,南方暖氣團也立即備戰,南海西南季風增強,
源源不絕的熱海氣團北上,只是一部分被南臺灣的高山擋下,
南海西南季風:衝吧,往東海,...哎呀,誰擋路啊
南臺灣高山:抱歉抱歉...哭哭哭 嘩啦嘩啦
南海西南季風:煩捏,又要繞道了
於是,週日起從黃海到華南的梅雨鋒面往東南移動,
在暖氣團的阻力下移動緩慢,模式顯示下週二午後抵達北台灣,
不過從東亞沿海移出的溫帶氣旋移向日本東方發展為大型氣旋,
鄂霍次克海融冰的冷空氣大規模南下,
一支主力直接南下日本南方太平洋,
另一支繞進日本海後南下東海與南海西南季風相戰,
台灣東北方近海出現氣旋的話,戰區就是北台灣了(尤其台北),
與往常不同的是,
由於這波梅雨的大氣形勢呈現東亞槽向南轉直與太平洋高壓西伸南海對抗,
因此南海西南季風成為輔助角色,也就是強度不會太強,屬於防衛型迎戰,
但夏季系統這步棋下的不好。
夏季系統會議室,
南亞高壓司令:這次敵方再次進攻,誰願意主帥
太平洋高壓師:選我!選我!選我!選我!選我!
眾所皆知,西南季風的任務是清除東亞殘餘冷空氣,
若沒有大量西南季風進入東亞,台灣梅雨季就不能視為出梅的條件。
這是由於台灣出梅時,東亞沿海高空必須建立"南亞高壓的副中心",
此時台灣上方大氣高層轉為穩定的東風帶,
這就要仰賴西南季風北上的上升氣流,而非太平洋高壓的下沉氣流。
因此,
目前大氣高層的南亞高壓中心完全沒有要往東建立副中心的意思,
當然,也因為北方冬季系統的阻力太大了。
第一波梅雨下了一週,第二波梅雨下了4天左右,
第三波梅雨目前模式也差不多4天,不過夏季系統給太平洋高壓當主力迎戰,
這將與梅雨鋒面+西南季風的降雨型態不同,
歐洲模式認為,太平洋高壓表現雖不好,但仍將冷暖主戰場控制在北台灣(哭哭)
美軍模式認為,
太平洋高壓表現差,主帥退卻,導致輔助型西南季風直接硬戰在南台灣,並產生氣旋。
再觀察囉,
結論:
西南季風已經開始備戰(華南低壓區氣壓下降),風力加強,迎風面中南部水氣來囉
(以上供參囉)
--
目前北方大氣環境僅存1個阻塞高壓,位於鄂霍次克海北方,
因此,冷空氣南下的主力偏向東亞沿海,西南季風推動梅雨鋒面往北推,
東亞梅雨鋒面向東往太平洋長延伸;
不過,
過渡季節大氣總是難以捉摸..
今起開始有了變化,第2個阻塞高壓即將出現,位於北亞,
且長期模式預報甚至還有西西伯利亞的第3個阻塞高壓出現,
北方大環境的重大改變,情況當然就有所不同了,
冷空氣的力道加強,冷暖重新大戰。
今天起中亞的暖脊將逐漸深入極地建立阻塞高壓,
冷高壓已從中亞北方從蒙古西側南下,再與新疆甘肅融雪後的冷空氣會合,
冷暖在四川盆地交戰後將進戰區推至華南內陸;
不過儘管如此,仍不足以推動滯留鋒抵達台灣,
這時就要等待東亞溫帶氣旋的出現,
也就是第1個阻塞高壓發揮力量,割離低壓划向東北亞,
東北亞高空出現冷渦旋延伸西風槽,地面東亞沿海出現溫帶氣旋東移,
至此,
梅雨鋒面開始南壓而來..
然而,南方暖氣團也立即備戰,南海西南季風增強,
源源不絕的熱海氣團北上,只是一部分被南臺灣的高山擋下,
南海西南季風:衝吧,往東海,...哎呀,誰擋路啊
南臺灣高山:抱歉抱歉...哭哭哭 嘩啦嘩啦
南海西南季風:煩捏,又要繞道了
於是,週日起從黃海到華南的梅雨鋒面往東南移動,
在暖氣團的阻力下移動緩慢,模式顯示下週二午後抵達北台灣,
不過從東亞沿海移出的溫帶氣旋移向日本東方發展為大型氣旋,
鄂霍次克海融冰的冷空氣大規模南下,
一支主力直接南下日本南方太平洋,
另一支繞進日本海後南下東海與南海西南季風相戰,
台灣東北方近海出現氣旋的話,戰區就是北台灣了(尤其台北),
與往常不同的是,
由於這波梅雨的大氣形勢呈現東亞槽向南轉直與太平洋高壓西伸南海對抗,
因此南海西南季風成為輔助角色,也就是強度不會太強,屬於防衛型迎戰,
但夏季系統這步棋下的不好。
夏季系統會議室,
南亞高壓司令:這次敵方再次進攻,誰願意主帥
太平洋高壓師:選我!選我!選我!選我!選我!
眾所皆知,西南季風的任務是清除東亞殘餘冷空氣,
若沒有大量西南季風進入東亞,台灣梅雨季就不能視為出梅的條件。
這是由於台灣出梅時,東亞沿海高空必須建立"南亞高壓的副中心",
此時台灣上方大氣高層轉為穩定的東風帶,
這就要仰賴西南季風北上的上升氣流,而非太平洋高壓的下沉氣流。
因此,
目前大氣高層的南亞高壓中心完全沒有要往東建立副中心的意思,
當然,也因為北方冬季系統的阻力太大了。
第一波梅雨下了一週,第二波梅雨下了4天左右,
第三波梅雨目前模式也差不多4天,不過夏季系統給太平洋高壓當主力迎戰,
這將與梅雨鋒面+西南季風的降雨型態不同,
歐洲模式認為,太平洋高壓表現雖不好,但仍將冷暖主戰場控制在北台灣(哭哭)
美軍模式認為,
太平洋高壓表現差,主帥退卻,導致輔助型西南季風直接硬戰在南台灣,並產生氣旋。
再觀察囉,
結論:
西南季風已經開始備戰(華南低壓區氣壓下降),風力加強,迎風面中南部水氣來囉
(以上供參囉)
--
Tags:
颱風
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