天氣小觀:北太平洋脊形成阻塞高壓偏西遠東半島 - 颱風討論
By Valerie
at 2022-01-05T08:18
at 2022-01-05T08:18
Table of Contents
後冬時期(跨年後之冬)1、2月開始,
北太平洋暖脊形成阻塞高壓,位置比預期偏西,偏向亞洲遠東半島,
如此一來,阻塞高壓在中亞脊出現東移的過程中,將有機會結合,
模式顯示,第一次結合失敗,第二次結合成功變成中亞大脊,如此東亞大槽又重新high了。
事實上,北太平洋脊的阻塞高壓偏西,位於亞洲遠東半島高空,好處還不少;
首先,
對白令海峽與白令海北側的海冰影響會小的多,
目前北極海冰較少的地區位於北美加拿大東側的拉不拉多海域,但受惠於北太平洋暖脊的出現,
北美超級冰風暴正在上映,因此北美區域的海冰還算樂觀。
其次,
北太平洋暖脊終究不夠格撼動平流層的北極渦旋,
模式未來一週北極渦旋中心位於北極,
百帕高度場15000米,差不多是超級渦旋(想像900百帕的氣旋)。
長期預報一週過後會再上看14900米真正的超級渦旋。
(往異常強極渦發展的話,南方如台灣就要注意了)
最後,
北太平洋脊的阻塞高壓偏西落於亞洲遠東半島上空,和中亞脊結合後,
原位於亞洲遠東內陸的高空冷渦旋會延伸西風大槽,往東亞而下,
東亞大槽也開始轉趨活躍,預報一週過後,一月中旬左右開始的強冷空氣不少。
至於本週,
中亞脊與亞洲遠東阻塞高壓第一次結合失敗,中亞脊轉平直,對應東亞槽就不夠南伸,
因此冷高壓不夠強,但蒙古冷高壓南下彌補了冷高壓本身偏弱,
蒙古冷高壓整合四散的分裂冷高壓,東北季風率冷空氣沿東亞而下,
因此對台灣影響也很明顯,冷空氣頗強,北東部天氣也濕濕冷冷的。
但真正關注還是,北極渦旋排除北太平洋暖脊的躁動之後...。
(以上供參囉)
--
北太平洋暖脊形成阻塞高壓,位置比預期偏西,偏向亞洲遠東半島,
如此一來,阻塞高壓在中亞脊出現東移的過程中,將有機會結合,
模式顯示,第一次結合失敗,第二次結合成功變成中亞大脊,如此東亞大槽又重新high了。
事實上,北太平洋脊的阻塞高壓偏西,位於亞洲遠東半島高空,好處還不少;
首先,
對白令海峽與白令海北側的海冰影響會小的多,
目前北極海冰較少的地區位於北美加拿大東側的拉不拉多海域,但受惠於北太平洋暖脊的出現,
北美超級冰風暴正在上映,因此北美區域的海冰還算樂觀。
其次,
北太平洋暖脊終究不夠格撼動平流層的北極渦旋,
模式未來一週北極渦旋中心位於北極,
百帕高度場15000米,差不多是超級渦旋(想像900百帕的氣旋)。
長期預報一週過後會再上看14900米真正的超級渦旋。
(往異常強極渦發展的話,南方如台灣就要注意了)
最後,
北太平洋脊的阻塞高壓偏西落於亞洲遠東半島上空,和中亞脊結合後,
原位於亞洲遠東內陸的高空冷渦旋會延伸西風大槽,往東亞而下,
東亞大槽也開始轉趨活躍,預報一週過後,一月中旬左右開始的強冷空氣不少。
至於本週,
中亞脊與亞洲遠東阻塞高壓第一次結合失敗,中亞脊轉平直,對應東亞槽就不夠南伸,
因此冷高壓不夠強,但蒙古冷高壓南下彌補了冷高壓本身偏弱,
蒙古冷高壓整合四散的分裂冷高壓,東北季風率冷空氣沿東亞而下,
因此對台灣影響也很明顯,冷空氣頗強,北東部天氣也濕濕冷冷的。
但真正關注還是,北極渦旋排除北太平洋暖脊的躁動之後...。
(以上供參囉)
--
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