天氣小觀:明午後主冷高壓南下,竟似初冬的味道 - 颱風討論
By Erin
at 2021-10-20T15:29
at 2021-10-20T15:29
Table of Contents
上週六第1個冷高壓南下,週一出海;
昨晚(週二晚)第2個冷高壓南下,這個冷高壓是第3個冷高壓的分裂高壓;
明起就是真正的主冷高壓南下,
而這次的主冷高壓南下濕冷風大,好像有初冬味道了:
1.
這個主冷高壓南下到出海要3天多,而且還有假出海;
由於時間太長,整個東亞大幅降溫,
北台灣低溫從涼爽變微冷,
南台灣低溫從溫暖變涼爽;
同時,
這次的冷高壓可能為下一個冷高壓鋪出冬季大環境 => 西風帶南移到台灣上空,
如此一來,
難道!
東亞要提早進入寒潮爆發期了嗎。(以往,11月開始才是東亞的寒潮爆發期)
如果台灣也提早入冬的話:
秋風吹盡逞寒氣,淒風苦雨下北宜;以為溪南小陽春,冷風噴嚏淚決堤。
...如此一來,就太神奇了。(台灣一般是12月才入冬耶!!)
2.
這波主冷高壓南下時間長,東北季風雨不停
這也是冬季地形雨的特色,
冬季的東北季風是北北東風,也就是東北季風是沿著東亞沿岸而下,
這是因為冬季環境下,
蒙古冷高壓梯度與東亞沿海對比,氣壓梯度呈現明顯的的海陸分布對比,
也就是,
冬季環境下:南北溫差 < 海陸溫差 ===> 東亞南北的溫差 < 東亞與太平洋的溫差
因此,
蒙古冷高壓吹出的東北季風沿著氣壓梯度往南吹,不容易減弱,
吹到台灣呈現來自北方源頭的"北北東風"。
明午後的這個主冷高壓帶來偏向"北北東風"的東北季風,
沿著東亞沿岸而下,台灣海峽成為噴流區。
因此,
低層噴流的北北東風的左前方-北台灣,尤其東北部有利於水氣輻合:
圖說:https://imgur.com/a/ACaVfYI
(東北季風噴流高度低,遇到台灣地形分成兩股,
東北季風左前方-東北部容易有輻合水氣,
但這種輻合通常不會旋轉(不同於秋季海溫高,冷暖氣流輻合後旋轉=>氣旋發展),
東北季風的輻合為"相對風速較弱的水氣聚集",
匯集的水氣進入北宜山區後,地形抬升
=> 形成沒日沒夜的冬季地形雨)
倘若,
再搭配鋒面-高空有西風槽的輻散搭配(高層噴流的右後方)雨勢就更明顯。
3.
總結,
對於北部來說,明午後起,東北季風冷涼下雨久矣,
對於中部來說,明晚上起,東北季風又大又涼偶雨,
對於南部來說,後天早起,東北季風有涼舒適可以。
至於南方熱帶擾動,由於冬季系統強勢對熱帶擾動發展凶多吉少。
不過週日通過菲律賓時,可以再觀察一下,
模式看來,由於南北推擠,太平洋高壓勢力往西分裂單體,
台灣海峽南部高空有另一股噴流出現,
高空輻散場佳,中南部地面屬於東北季風的背風低壓區就可當作輻合場,
因此,
模式預報中南部週日下午,尤其山區背風低壓熱力作用可能有一些降雨。
至於,
未來觀察重點,就全放在冬季系統了。
文學之秋過後,就是科技季節-冬季了。
(人類的文明起源:出非洲後的氣候考驗 穿上衣服,挑戰冬季。)
真不知道今年冬季來的會不會太快了...
(以上供參囉)
--
昨晚(週二晚)第2個冷高壓南下,這個冷高壓是第3個冷高壓的分裂高壓;
明起就是真正的主冷高壓南下,
而這次的主冷高壓南下濕冷風大,好像有初冬味道了:
1.
這個主冷高壓南下到出海要3天多,而且還有假出海;
由於時間太長,整個東亞大幅降溫,
北台灣低溫從涼爽變微冷,
南台灣低溫從溫暖變涼爽;
同時,
這次的冷高壓可能為下一個冷高壓鋪出冬季大環境 => 西風帶南移到台灣上空,
如此一來,
難道!
東亞要提早進入寒潮爆發期了嗎。(以往,11月開始才是東亞的寒潮爆發期)
如果台灣也提早入冬的話:
秋風吹盡逞寒氣,淒風苦雨下北宜;以為溪南小陽春,冷風噴嚏淚決堤。
...如此一來,就太神奇了。(台灣一般是12月才入冬耶!!)
2.
這波主冷高壓南下時間長,東北季風雨不停
這也是冬季地形雨的特色,
冬季的東北季風是北北東風,也就是東北季風是沿著東亞沿岸而下,
這是因為冬季環境下,
蒙古冷高壓梯度與東亞沿海對比,氣壓梯度呈現明顯的的海陸分布對比,
也就是,
冬季環境下:南北溫差 < 海陸溫差 ===> 東亞南北的溫差 < 東亞與太平洋的溫差
因此,
蒙古冷高壓吹出的東北季風沿著氣壓梯度往南吹,不容易減弱,
吹到台灣呈現來自北方源頭的"北北東風"。
明午後的這個主冷高壓帶來偏向"北北東風"的東北季風,
沿著東亞沿岸而下,台灣海峽成為噴流區。
因此,
低層噴流的北北東風的左前方-北台灣,尤其東北部有利於水氣輻合:
圖說:https://imgur.com/a/ACaVfYI
(東北季風噴流高度低,遇到台灣地形分成兩股,
東北季風左前方-東北部容易有輻合水氣,
但這種輻合通常不會旋轉(不同於秋季海溫高,冷暖氣流輻合後旋轉=>氣旋發展),
東北季風的輻合為"相對風速較弱的水氣聚集",
匯集的水氣進入北宜山區後,地形抬升
=> 形成沒日沒夜的冬季地形雨)
倘若,
再搭配鋒面-高空有西風槽的輻散搭配(高層噴流的右後方)雨勢就更明顯。
3.
總結,
對於北部來說,明午後起,東北季風冷涼下雨久矣,
對於中部來說,明晚上起,東北季風又大又涼偶雨,
對於南部來說,後天早起,東北季風有涼舒適可以。
至於南方熱帶擾動,由於冬季系統強勢對熱帶擾動發展凶多吉少。
不過週日通過菲律賓時,可以再觀察一下,
模式看來,由於南北推擠,太平洋高壓勢力往西分裂單體,
台灣海峽南部高空有另一股噴流出現,
高空輻散場佳,中南部地面屬於東北季風的背風低壓區就可當作輻合場,
因此,
模式預報中南部週日下午,尤其山區背風低壓熱力作用可能有一些降雨。
至於,
未來觀察重點,就全放在冬季系統了。
文學之秋過後,就是科技季節-冬季了。
(人類的文明起源:出非洲後的氣候考驗 穿上衣服,挑戰冬季。)
真不知道今年冬季來的會不會太快了...
(以上供參囉)
--
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