天氣小觀:模式北極渦旋每5天增強一級,秋爽跳到冬 - 颱風討論
By James
at 2021-10-31T20:39
at 2021-10-31T20:39
Table of Contents
位於北亞北地群島高空的北極渦旋中心百帕高度場15400米以下,
已經接近強烈極渦了(想像940百帕以下的氣旋),
在永夜擴大的極佳環境下,
模式顯示北極渦旋每5天增強一級,
未來10天,北極渦旋中心百帕高度場將增強至15200米以下,
成為又強又大的強烈北極渦旋(想像920百帕以下的氣旋)。
由於北極渦旋中心在北亞北側穩定增強,
最新美軍GFS模式預報,下周日晚起變天,
而且在北極渦旋穩定增強的形勢下,
就算只有最外圍抵達北台灣高空,但台灣直接入冬。
相較之下,
歐洲EC模式認為"類似強極渦模式:冷 => 暖 => 冬冷....(一陣子)
兩種模式的差異點在於台灣感受冬冷的時間不同,
但無論如何,模式預報一週過後就是東亞寒潮爆發,
而台灣也將準備感受冬氣(才11月上旬耶!)。
如果下週台灣入冬和節氣立冬相同,那本週應該是深秋,
不過,本週還是屬於秋涼20多度,
未來本週,北方沒有強冷高壓,但由於西風帶壓到東海到北台灣,
即使一般的蒙古冷高壓也能南下影響台灣,
再加上東亞地面轉冷,弱冷高壓一個接一個東移。
因此,本週東亞一個一個弱冷高壓東移,
東北季風轉東風的本週,就是北/東部天氣較不穩定,涼暖交替。
但週末以後,中亞大脊出現,東亞的極鋒噴流大幅震盪,
東亞有很強的冷暖鋒面出現,甚至東海有溫帶氣旋發展。
因此,週末以後就是大環境改變,下週準備迎接冬之氣了。
秋爽跳到冬,秋意不見濃。
(以上供參)
--
已經接近強烈極渦了(想像940百帕以下的氣旋),
在永夜擴大的極佳環境下,
模式顯示北極渦旋每5天增強一級,
未來10天,北極渦旋中心百帕高度場將增強至15200米以下,
成為又強又大的強烈北極渦旋(想像920百帕以下的氣旋)。
由於北極渦旋中心在北亞北側穩定增強,
最新美軍GFS模式預報,下周日晚起變天,
而且在北極渦旋穩定增強的形勢下,
就算只有最外圍抵達北台灣高空,但台灣直接入冬。
相較之下,
歐洲EC模式認為"類似強極渦模式:冷 => 暖 => 冬冷....(一陣子)
兩種模式的差異點在於台灣感受冬冷的時間不同,
但無論如何,模式預報一週過後就是東亞寒潮爆發,
而台灣也將準備感受冬氣(才11月上旬耶!)。
如果下週台灣入冬和節氣立冬相同,那本週應該是深秋,
不過,本週還是屬於秋涼20多度,
未來本週,北方沒有強冷高壓,但由於西風帶壓到東海到北台灣,
即使一般的蒙古冷高壓也能南下影響台灣,
再加上東亞地面轉冷,弱冷高壓一個接一個東移。
因此,本週東亞一個一個弱冷高壓東移,
東北季風轉東風的本週,就是北/東部天氣較不穩定,涼暖交替。
但週末以後,中亞大脊出現,東亞的極鋒噴流大幅震盪,
東亞有很強的冷暖鋒面出現,甚至東海有溫帶氣旋發展。
因此,週末以後就是大環境改變,下週準備迎接冬之氣了。
秋爽跳到冬,秋意不見濃。
(以上供參)
--
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