天氣小觀:冷暖大戰,你一拳,我一腳 - 颱風討論
By Elizabeth
at 2022-06-08T16:34
at 2022-06-08T16:34
Table of Contents
生活之夏,白話說明;
前兩天的梅雨滯留鋒開始下雨,
地面場,溫帶氣旋與熱低壓配置在台灣東北與西南方的大氣環境下,
冷空氣一拳,暖空氣就還以一腳;暖空氣一腿,冷空氣就還以一掌。
不過,到底指揮官還是中層的太平洋高壓與東亞西風槽,
只是兩邊指揮官都有決策失誤的兩光;
中高層的西風槽後西北氣流並不是穩定直線,而是曲線,
導致冷涼空氣四處亂竄(東亞殘餘冷空氣),並不團結;
而,
中高層太平洋高壓西伸入南海也讓西南季風上下層不一致,
上層(大氣中低層)的西南季風往華南沿岸貼,再經台灣海峽過來,
下層(大氣低底層)的西南季風往台灣直衝,因台灣地形分成兩股;
於是,
整體看來梅雨滯留鋒區的降雨還不致失控,
低底層的西南季風當然是撞擊南台灣高山,地形直接抬升降雨,
中低層的西南季風在台灣海峽遭遇偏北風,移進台灣中北部降雨。
今天的情況差不多,但明天起東北亞高空冷渦旋縮減消失,
原因當然是北方大氣環境因阻塞高壓消退重新混亂。
因此,冷空氣減弱,週五起梅雨鋒面北抬。
不過短期內台灣還未達出梅條件,
目前的南亞高壓很偏心,重心一直擺在亞洲南方(中南半島~阿拉伯半島),
對東亞的熱衷度很低,看來五月中旬罕見的東北季風追加劑造成的後遺症不小;
因為南海海溫偏低,夏季季風也偏弱。
未來一週,梅雨鋒面主要還在華南~長江口或華南沿岸~台灣徘迴,
不過,印度半島的西南季風爆發在即,
一旦印度西南季風爆發,南亞高壓登上伊朗高原,好戲還在後頭。
夏季系統:隱藏版絕招蓄力中!
(以上供參囉)
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