天氣小觀:舒力基轉東,降雨減緩,等待週日降雨 - 颱風討論
By Brianna
at 2021-04-22T09:23
at 2021-04-22T09:23
Table of Contents
天氣小觀:舒力基轉東,降雨減緩,西半部等待週日降雨:鋒面雨少,主要靠偏東風水氣降雨
持續看預報降雨,模式預報又略微變更了,
舒力基位置偏東 -> 明天降雨減緩。
週末冷高壓位置偏東 -> 週末鋒面雨轉向靠偏東風水氣+鋒區不穩定環境下降雨。
由於舒力基位置比預期偏東,並且已經開始轉東遠離,
因此明天的降雨會比較緩和,但東北東風仍舊吹過來,
再沒有太平洋副高的下沉抑制情況時,東部仍有一些地形雨,
不過偏東風的風力不像東北季風強勁,因此東部降雨還算緩和。
但對於西半部而言,
舒力基就沒太大影響了,
主要是今天舒力基轉東,偏東風降雨推進中央山脈,擴及西部山區降雨。
因此,西半部主要降雨只能再等週末。
週末降雨:
舒力基併入西風帶走後,終於重回春季快速變動的大氣高空秀,
四月春季地面大氣已經不像夏、冬有著很強的大氣系統所掌控。(冬冷高壓,夏暖高壓)
因此,
春季主要看高空大環境變化,例如:觀察南亞高壓何時誕生。
(秋季多氣旋,熱帶/溫帶氣旋,因此主要看地面變化-大氣地面秀)
不過,
今年大氣環境在被舒力基攪和後,現在不是觀察南亞高壓誕生的時機,
反而是北方大環境的變化,
從極地遠東地區的高空冷渦旋迅速向南延伸的西風大槽,接上華南短槽(南支槽東移),
因此週末鋒面南下台灣降雨。
降雨情形來看,
由於是從遠東高空冷渦旋是從東北亞往南延伸大槽,
地面冷高壓位置偏東,從東北亞南下,
冷高壓位置偏東(東北亞),東北風是從日本吹到台灣:
在這時節,
1. 4月下旬,極地遠東冷氣團加持,
冷高壓直接從西伯利亞、東北風往台灣吹,這現象很少見,
看來之前的溫帶氣旋+舒力基颱風(夏季系統的叛逆小子),真的幫了冬季系統大忙。
才能讓極地高空冷渦旋突然向南移並延伸出大槽。
甚至長期模式顯示,,4月底似乎還有一波,而且是蒙古冷高壓!
(遠東冷渦旋迅速往南延伸大槽,後面冷渦旋也想跟著延伸)
如此看來,
今年正統西伯利亞冷高壓東北季風影響力可能會達4月底了,這會是罕見現象了!
2. 週日的東北亞冷高壓吹出的東北季風走海路,
這季節走海路的東北季風到台灣已經不像東北季風了,甚至減弱為偏東風,
因此,模式預報,
東北亞冷高壓偏北風推動鋒面往台灣時,東北季風變成偏東風,
偏東風與偏北風相遇,冷暖大戰變成"冷-不冷"相遇,因此鋒面結構轉差,
原先的鋒面雨變的不明顯,反而是偏東風水氣進來的降雨較明顯。
但是鋒區的不穩定大氣環境,加上熱對流,降雨趨勢依舊。
(以上供參囉)
--
持續看預報降雨,模式預報又略微變更了,
舒力基位置偏東 -> 明天降雨減緩。
週末冷高壓位置偏東 -> 週末鋒面雨轉向靠偏東風水氣+鋒區不穩定環境下降雨。
由於舒力基位置比預期偏東,並且已經開始轉東遠離,
因此明天的降雨會比較緩和,但東北東風仍舊吹過來,
再沒有太平洋副高的下沉抑制情況時,東部仍有一些地形雨,
不過偏東風的風力不像東北季風強勁,因此東部降雨還算緩和。
但對於西半部而言,
舒力基就沒太大影響了,
主要是今天舒力基轉東,偏東風降雨推進中央山脈,擴及西部山區降雨。
因此,西半部主要降雨只能再等週末。
週末降雨:
舒力基併入西風帶走後,終於重回春季快速變動的大氣高空秀,
四月春季地面大氣已經不像夏、冬有著很強的大氣系統所掌控。(冬冷高壓,夏暖高壓)
因此,
春季主要看高空大環境變化,例如:觀察南亞高壓何時誕生。
(秋季多氣旋,熱帶/溫帶氣旋,因此主要看地面變化-大氣地面秀)
不過,
今年大氣環境在被舒力基攪和後,現在不是觀察南亞高壓誕生的時機,
反而是北方大環境的變化,
從極地遠東地區的高空冷渦旋迅速向南延伸的西風大槽,接上華南短槽(南支槽東移),
因此週末鋒面南下台灣降雨。
降雨情形來看,
由於是從遠東高空冷渦旋是從東北亞往南延伸大槽,
地面冷高壓位置偏東,從東北亞南下,
冷高壓位置偏東(東北亞),東北風是從日本吹到台灣:
在這時節,
1. 4月下旬,極地遠東冷氣團加持,
冷高壓直接從西伯利亞、東北風往台灣吹,這現象很少見,
看來之前的溫帶氣旋+舒力基颱風(夏季系統的叛逆小子),真的幫了冬季系統大忙。
才能讓極地高空冷渦旋突然向南移並延伸出大槽。
甚至長期模式顯示,,4月底似乎還有一波,而且是蒙古冷高壓!
(遠東冷渦旋迅速往南延伸大槽,後面冷渦旋也想跟著延伸)
如此看來,
今年正統西伯利亞冷高壓東北季風影響力可能會達4月底了,這會是罕見現象了!
2. 週日的東北亞冷高壓吹出的東北季風走海路,
這季節走海路的東北季風到台灣已經不像東北季風了,甚至減弱為偏東風,
因此,模式預報,
東北亞冷高壓偏北風推動鋒面往台灣時,東北季風變成偏東風,
偏東風與偏北風相遇,冷暖大戰變成"冷-不冷"相遇,因此鋒面結構轉差,
原先的鋒面雨變的不明顯,反而是偏東風水氣進來的降雨較明顯。
但是鋒區的不穩定大氣環境,加上熱對流,降雨趨勢依舊。
(以上供參囉)
--
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