2211 軒嵐諾 - 颱風討論

Jake avatar
By Jake
at 2022-08-31T21:23

Table of Contents


https://i.imgur.com/eCAzGtF.png

JTWC 第14報
C4 颱風 軒嵐諾
世界協調時間 8月31號 12:00
位置:北緯 24.8度 東經 127.7 度
中心氣壓: 930百帕
中心付近最大風速: 125 KTS

JTWC預測路徑: https://i.imgur.com/aVaVoTK.gif

EC 31 06Z 144小時系集: https://i.imgur.com/SIARpUR.png

GFS 31 06Z系集: https://i.imgur.com/CobvS9i.png

OHC圖: https://i.imgur.com/LJKMs2f.png (待更新)

軒嵐諾的私密照片: https://i.imgur.com/998Lv5y.gif

https://i.imgur.com/msiAC1a.gif

軒嵐諾的星座命盤: https://i.imgur.com/uWLsJMQ.png

同場加映JMA預測路徑: https://i.imgur.com/J3eR56V.jpg

--
Tags: 颱風

All Comments

Carol avatar
By Carol
at 2022-09-03T05:20
前十推
Michael avatar
By Michael
at 2022-09-05T13:17
Kyle avatar
By Kyle
at 2022-09-07T21:14
西起來
Charlotte avatar
By Charlotte
at 2022-09-10T05:11
南邊怎麼好像又要復活了
Edith avatar
By Edith
at 2022-09-12T13:07
東起來
Bennie avatar
By Bennie
at 2022-09-14T21:04
Thomas avatar
By Thomas
at 2022-09-17T05:01
東北部大雨一陣一陣,很懷念這感覺
Victoria avatar
By Victoria
at 2022-09-19T12:58
Gary avatar
By Gary
at 2022-09-21T20:55
Doris avatar
By Doris
at 2022-09-24T04:52
偏西一點
Christine avatar
By Christine
at 2022-09-22T11:55
拜託提早轉
Harry avatar
By Harry
at 2022-09-24T19:52
Rachel avatar
By Rachel
at 2022-09-22T11:55
再偏西一點
Cara avatar
By Cara
at 2022-09-24T19:52
jma在畫北斗七星嗎XD
Faithe avatar
By Faithe
at 2022-09-22T11:55
拜託西一波,不想缺水了
Lauren avatar
By Lauren
at 2022-09-24T19:52
CCCCC
Jacob avatar
By Jacob
at 2022-09-22T11:55
Ccccccccccccc
Irma avatar
By Irma
at 2022-09-24T19:52
Sierra Rose avatar
By Sierra Rose
at 2022-09-22T11:55
拳四郎:你已經死了
Damian avatar
By Damian
at 2022-09-24T19:52
有比較西嗎?感覺好像沒有(?
George avatar
By George
at 2022-09-22T11:55
cc lemon
Suhail Hany avatar
By Suhail Hany
at 2022-09-24T19:52
拜託趕快來,週末颱也好
Isabella avatar
By Isabella
at 2022-09-22T11:55
EC06Z的系集東修 有往宮古島修正的趨勢
Yuri avatar
By Yuri
at 2022-09-24T19:52
說不定最後在宮古島以東北上
Ursula avatar
By Ursula
at 2022-09-22T11:55
結束了
Ula avatar
By Ula
at 2022-09-24T19:52
飄向北方 ready
Carol avatar
By Carol
at 2022-09-22T11:55
西西西
Yedda avatar
By Yedda
at 2022-09-24T19:52
https://tinyl.io/6tlX 已經可以看到風眼了
Heather avatar
By Heather
at 2022-09-22T11:55
CCCCCCCCCCCCCC
Daph Bay avatar
By Daph Bay
at 2022-09-24T19:52
沒那麼快 會滯留一會吧
David avatar
By David
at 2022-09-22T11:55
Cccccccc
Skylar DavisLinda avatar
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2022-09-24T19:52
Cccccccc
Bethany avatar
By Bethany
at 2022-09-22T11:55
Weathernerd的黑線其實是他畫出所有線的平均就是
對於怎麼北上還沒明顯收束
Sandy avatar
By Sandy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
說不定最後走CWB比較偏東的路線,最新報通過台灣東部
海域時暴風圈250KM~280KM 再轉上去才擴大成300KM XD
Ingrid avatar
By Ingrid
at 2022-09-22T11:55
ccccccc
Belly avatar
By Belly
at 2022-09-24T19:52
有一點點颱風感覺也好
Anonymous avatar
By Anonymous
at 2022-09-22T11:55
小J那段西北折會不會是接上高壓之後被推一下造成的
Ina avatar
By Ina
at 2022-09-24T19:52
13w大爆炸對流欸
Anthony avatar
By Anthony
at 2022-09-22T11:55
事情大條了 CWB開始斤斤計較風圈了 XD
Elizabeth avatar
By Elizabeth
at 2022-09-24T19:52
這坨對流如果到時在它東側,然後還這麼大時,就刺
激了
Daph Bay avatar
By Daph Bay
at 2022-09-22T11:55
98W對流超旺欸
Zenobia avatar
By Zenobia
at 2022-09-24T19:52
話說現在13w樣子算是“拉伸”嗎xd
Necoo avatar
By Necoo
at 2022-09-22T11:55
看雲圖感覺要開大眼
Franklin avatar
By Franklin
at 2022-09-24T19:52
cwb風圈推估縮了,等到北上減弱才增大
Yuri avatar
By Yuri
at 2022-09-22T11:55
感覺再來路徑就是微調而已 差別不大了
Christine avatar
By Christine
at 2022-09-24T19:52
CWB調弱強度變51/63
Jacob avatar
By Jacob
at 2022-09-22T11:55
現在怎麼看未來的風圈都是預估的,作業單位保守好像
也可以理解 風場才要擴大而已
Ethan avatar
By Ethan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
CWB就故意的啊
Christine avatar
By Christine
at 2022-09-22T11:55
看來TD14一直抗拒被吃…
感覺要中心要攤了等待整合
Skylar Davis avatar
By Skylar Davis
at 2022-09-24T19:52
CWB 調弱強度和風圈?哇
Delia avatar
By Delia
at 2022-09-22T11:55
擴大就有發布陸警的機會 如果沒有很靠近的機會不太
Hedda avatar
By Hedda
at 2022-09-24T19:52
https://tinyl.io/6tll ICON的劇本...
Caitlin avatar
By Caitlin
at 2022-09-22T11:55
可能自找麻煩XD
WINDY上的ICON劇本舊了 06Z已經修成北部近海北上
Susan avatar
By Susan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
13w看起來像超大型煙囪雲 12w又變成麻糬
Jake avatar
By Jake
at 2022-09-22T11:55
暗黑大法準備開始囉~
Lily avatar
By Lily
at 2022-09-24T19:52
明天台北雨會很大嗎
Faithe avatar
By Faithe
at 2022-09-22T11:55
CWB路徑最東風圈最小,跟別國預估來看有點標新立異
Mason avatar
By Mason
at 2022-09-24T19:52
12W的眼睛看起來要放大了
Cara avatar
By Cara
at 2022-09-22T11:55
有補雨沒進來 算不錯
Skylar Davis avatar
By Skylar Davis
at 2022-09-24T19:52
話說,今年CWB有新制,海上警報就會有陸警時的那種
風雨預報,或許看能不能解掉暴風圈的緊箍咒一些…
Hedwig avatar
By Hedwig
at 2022-09-22T11:55
LI40 比較有名的拉伸就1994 提姆拉伸范妮莎颱風
Rosalind avatar
By Rosalind
at 2022-09-24T19:52
感覺涼率滿高的
Kama avatar
By Kama
at 2022-09-22T11:55
*海警且風雨影響較大時
Damian avatar
By Damian
at 2022-09-24T19:52
https://reurl.cc/yMv8Oy 提姆 范妮莎
Madame avatar
By Madame
at 2022-09-22T11:55
那張圖應該會勾起許多提姆時期的風迷xd
Annie avatar
By Annie
at 2022-09-24T19:52
感謝殺七大
Queena avatar
By Queena
at 2022-09-22T11:55
路徑最東 風圈最小 這就CWB常態啊 XD
Skylar DavisLinda avatar
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2022-09-24T19:52
拉伸是什麼
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2022-09-22T11:55
這個一看就是要開大眼了
Queena avatar
By Queena
at 2022-09-24T19:52
現在的速度這麼快是本來預期中的嗎?
Charlotte avatar
By Charlotte
at 2022-09-22T11:55
CWB三寶 強度 風圈 路徑
Jack avatar
By Jack
at 2022-09-24T19:52
走到宮古島南方時看來不來的急踩煞車
James avatar
By James
at 2022-09-22T11:55
98w繼續掙扎的話感覺會來不及煞車
James avatar
By James
at 2022-09-24T19:52
要暗黑了?
William avatar
By William
at 2022-09-22T11:55
不准來
Una avatar
By Una
at 2022-09-24T19:52
看了一下CWB下午那報預測晚上20點位置,其實跟現實20
點幾乎差不多,目前這段快速西南行也在各數值預估內
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2022-09-22T11:55
這路徑西側風較弱,微調還好
Edith avatar
By Edith
at 2022-09-24T19:52
按照小J預報明天晚上9點才會走到最南點 宮古島正南
Ophelia avatar
By Ophelia
at 2022-09-22T11:55
Rachel avatar
By Rachel
at 2022-09-24T19:52
往西南行這段比較確定,分歧的是開始往北時候的角
Kama avatar
By Kama
at 2022-09-22T11:55
我覺得數值沒有算到這個時間它的東南側還有這麼大
坨吞不下去的對流
Annie avatar
By Annie
at 2022-09-24T19:52
比對一下00Z EC 多少有抓到啦https://i.imgur.com/X
WDZojz.jpg
Daph Bay avatar
By Daph Bay
at 2022-09-22T11:55
https://i.imgur.com/YNn2QDX.jpg
Harry avatar
By Harry
at 2022-09-24T19:52
如果13w明天還在數值還會大翻盤嗎
Hazel avatar
By Hazel
at 2022-09-22T11:55
希望明天中午前能衝過125E大牆?
Rosalind avatar
By Rosalind
at 2022-09-24T19:52
數值在預測兩個系統合併的狀況常常看起來很順利
不過現實總是拖滿久XD
Tristan Cohan avatar
By Tristan Cohan
at 2022-09-22T11:55
要出乎意料難度很高,因為EC都有算到
Robert avatar
By Robert
at 2022-09-24T19:52
數值原先預測在這個時間點
13W已經是一條一條的雲被捲進去了
Charlie avatar
By Charlie
at 2022-09-22T11:55
這兩個系統要出意外有點難
要出意外不如看看140E的低壓會不會出意外
Bennie avatar
By Bennie
at 2022-09-24T19:52
合併是最終結果 但過程怎麼樣還是會對路徑產生變化
Zora avatar
By Zora
at 2022-09-22T11:55
TWRF算出繞圈圈才比較奇特
Franklin avatar
By Franklin
at 2022-09-24T19:52
翡翠水源區上空終於下大雨了...
Anonymous avatar
By Anonymous
at 2022-09-22T11:55
希望雨來風別來
Kyle avatar
By Kyle
at 2022-09-24T19:52
西南東北走向之麻糬12w
Barb Cronin avatar
By Barb Cronin
at 2022-09-22T11:55
一直喊不要來的 到時停水 限水你家先要不要?
Megan avatar
By Megan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
快速的突破127.5
Gary avatar
By Gary
at 2022-09-22T11:55
外海那條看起來很兇
Damian avatar
By Damian
at 2022-09-24T19:52
https://i.imgur.com/eCAzGtF.png
Puput avatar
By Puput
at 2022-09-22T11:55
別來拉 周末要出門玩0.0
Megan avatar
By Megan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
喊不要來的當然是出遊我開心 停水你家停囉
Sierra Rose avatar
By Sierra Rose
at 2022-09-22T11:55
還好去日本,台灣影響不大
Yedda avatar
By Yedda
at 2022-09-24T19:52
還有人在期待嗎
Linda avatar
By Linda
at 2022-09-22T11:55
13W的LLCC現在大概在23N 131.5E...吧?
Blanche avatar
By Blanche
at 2022-09-24T19:52
哈 到時出遊你開心 停水你家先摟
Ula avatar
By Ula
at 2022-09-22T11:55
來下雨來
William avatar
By William
at 2022-09-24T19:52
https://i.imgur.com/497UGLv.jpg 外海懸臂兇狠
Selena avatar
By Selena
at 2022-09-22T11:55
沒有期不期待 因為被耍太多次 加上這次水情吃緊
George avatar
By George
at 2022-09-24T19:52
感覺要被耍的時間又要到了....
Catherine avatar
By Catherine
at 2022-09-22T11:55
https://i.imgur.com/fBOQJoB.png 應該是13W中心?
George avatar
By George
at 2022-09-24T19:52
各位晚安,軒嵐諾晚安
George avatar
By George
at 2022-09-22T11:55
高壓斷了沒?
Elma avatar
By Elma
at 2022-09-24T19:52
外海那條能來北北基就好了
Oscar avatar
By Oscar
at 2022-09-22T11:55
這次EC也才一報撲台而已,沒有什麼耍不耍的問題吧?
Gilbert avatar
By Gilbert
at 2022-09-24T19:52
對差不多是那個位置
Ula avatar
By Ula
at 2022-09-22T11:55
拜託ccccccccc起來!!!!
Bethany avatar
By Bethany
at 2022-09-24T19:52
高壓要凌晨才會斷
Quanna avatar
By Quanna
at 2022-09-22T11:55
大氣版人氣957
Isla avatar
By Isla
at 2022-09-24T19:52
不錯 不會帶來災情只帶來雨水的友善颱風
Enid avatar
By Enid
at 2022-09-22T11:55
蠻好玩的 13W的LLCC目前正在互旋
但西南側的對流一直爆 LLCC裸奔也帶不上來
Hazel avatar
By Hazel
at 2022-09-24T19:52
劣勢但還在燃燒小宇宙的13w
Charlotte avatar
By Charlotte
at 2022-09-22T11:55
13w的尾巴把頭拉住 奮力抵抗XD
Cara avatar
By Cara
at 2022-09-24T19:52
所以也有可能13w被甩走之後,12w的東側還留一大坨
對流,跟很多颱風匯留的尾巴一樣
Ingrid avatar
By Ingrid
at 2022-09-22T11:55
高壓你不要關鍵時刻軟掉啊
William avatar
By William
at 2022-09-24T19:52
現在斷掉會直接往上嗎
Victoria avatar
By Victoria
at 2022-09-22T11:55
斷掉就要看高壓之後是往西伸還是往南伸了
Carolina Franco avatar
By Carolina Franco
at 2022-09-24T19:52
蜜蘭諾
Linda avatar
By Linda
at 2022-09-22T11:55
斷掉軒就沒東西引導會開始停滯 直到釣竿或高壓往南
摸屁股
Agatha avatar
By Agatha
at 2022-09-24T19:52
斷掉的話東方沒系統會直接往上頂
Catherine avatar
By Catherine
at 2022-09-22T11:55
頂屁股
Blanche avatar
By Blanche
at 2022-09-24T19:52
卡大發文了
Caitlin avatar
By Caitlin
at 2022-09-22T11:55
https://i.imgur.com/W1QvhWd.gif
Hedda avatar
By Hedda
at 2022-09-24T19:52
這次大部分就報不會來哪有耍你,只是不符合你的期
待吧
Liam avatar
By Liam
at 2022-09-22T11:55
台北下大雨,這波大尾巴掃進來很爽
Thomas avatar
By Thomas
at 2022-09-24T19:52
西南側不是本體 應該是右下空白處才是
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2022-09-22T11:55
給北部補補水
Brianna avatar
By Brianna
at 2022-09-24T19:52
希望帶多點水氣進來,不想冬天又限水了
Eden avatar
By Eden
at 2022-09-22T11:55
基隆需要一些雨水 加油啊
Edward Lewis avatar
By Edward Lewis
at 2022-09-24T19:52
不至於變成所謂的環形颱風結構 @@ 哭哭
Steve avatar
By Steve
at 2022-09-22T11:55
汐止又在下哭啊
Eartha avatar
By Eartha
at 2022-09-24T19:52
先來把水庫灌滿就可以離開了!
Andrew avatar
By Andrew
at 2022-09-22T11:55
南部的水情比較需要擔心吧~ 快進乾季了
William avatar
By William
at 2022-09-24T19:52
有報會來就是有可能 所以颱風有可能會來就當成不會?
Delia avatar
By Delia
at 2022-09-22T11:55
看不到又圓又大的模樣了嗎
Frederic avatar
By Frederic
at 2022-09-24T19:52
目前暴風圈要碰到都有難度,更別說登陸,唯一希望1
40E低壓發展也是沒個譜,這隻能為北部解解渴,期待
Blanche avatar
By Blanche
at 2022-09-22T11:55
下一隻吧,雖然颱風季快結束XD
Jack avatar
By Jack
at 2022-09-24T19:52
不敢來我就噓
Elma avatar
By Elma
at 2022-09-22T11:55
登陸派還在賭GEM和ICON吧 雖然不是主流預測
GEM好歹是美國海軍預測 準度應該有一定水準
Michael avatar
By Michael
at 2022-09-24T19:52
不懂你的邏輯,大部分都報不會來結果來了,你反而認
為沒被耍嗎
Joe avatar
By Joe
at 2022-09-22T11:55
ICON已經跳船了
Lily avatar
By Lily
at 2022-09-24T19:52
bendy.. 其實你可以不要理他
Michael avatar
By Michael
at 2022-09-22T11:55
了解,不要影響大家討論
Steve avatar
By Steve
at 2022-09-24T19:52
biostar大給的劇本非常驚悚XDD直接穿越台灣
Ida avatar
By Ida
at 2022-09-22T11:55
週日板橋陣風有40公里認真嗎
Isla avatar
By Isla
at 2022-09-24T19:52
AMSU最新掃到144KTS,仍然有貓五的實力
Yuri avatar
By Yuri
at 2022-09-22T11:55
但這次SMAP都沒掃描QQ
Elvira avatar
By Elvira
at 2022-09-24T19:52
40公里是啥鬼
Queena avatar
By Queena
at 2022-09-22T11:55
突破東經127度了
Hazel avatar
By Hazel
at 2022-09-24T19:52
在軒仔沒死透前我想我會一直相信她會來甚至北漂後
浪子回頭的
Delia avatar
By Delia
at 2022-09-22T11:55
40公里 6級風 吹偏東風就有了 有什麼稀奇嗎?
Eartha avatar
By Eartha
at 2022-09-24T19:52
ICON東調
Bethany avatar
By Bethany
at 2022-09-22T11:55
看來北部補水仍有望 也不錯啦
Barb Cronin avatar
By Barb Cronin
at 2022-09-24T19:52
台灣要水啦,西起來
Steve avatar
By Steve
at 2022-09-22T11:55
會來才是在耍你吧
Isla avatar
By Isla
at 2022-09-24T19:52
長知識了感謝
Anthony avatar
By Anthony
at 2022-09-22T11:55
給我西起來!
Odelette avatar
By Odelette
at 2022-09-24T19:52
往好處想 我認為發海警就是有來了
Zenobia avatar
By Zenobia
at 2022-09-22T11:55
ICON撐那麼久還是跳船了 當不成先知XD
Una avatar
By Una
at 2022-09-24T19:52
40km/hr除以3.6等於11.11m/s又沒很大
Tristan Cohan avatar
By Tristan Cohan
at 2022-09-22T11:55
明早應該高機率能截CWB臺灣衛星雲圖合照了xd
Carolina Franco avatar
By Carolina Franco
at 2022-09-24T19:52
多c多健康
Bethany avatar
By Bethany
at 2022-09-22T11:55
現在的軒蘭諾中心看的蠻有種奇特感
Kelly avatar
By Kelly
at 2022-09-24T19:52
40km/hr連閃電波特還跑得比較快
Carol avatar
By Carol
at 2022-09-22T11:55
博特才37.6而已啦哈哈
Aaliyah avatar
By Aaliyah
at 2022-09-24T19:52
最新探空 高壓沒斷https://i.imgur.com/wsVogx3.png
Vanessa avatar
By Vanessa
at 2022-09-22T11:55
要表演上鉤拳還是火影的表蓮華呢?
Yuri avatar
By Yuri
at 2022-09-24T19:52
槽線縮回去了嗎~?
James avatar
By James
at 2022-09-22T11:55
GEM也跳船了 目前沒有數據支持會登陸的
槽線打擊不夠力
Thomas avatar
By Thomas
at 2022-09-24T19:52
內眼掛得差不多了
Caroline avatar
By Caroline
at 2022-09-22T11:55
跟00Z比起來好像沒啥變化
Anonymous avatar
By Anonymous
at 2022-09-24T19:52
就看140E那個L到底有沒有辦法幫12W擋一下頂屁股摟
William avatar
By William
at 2022-09-22T11:55
東側真的有CCL卡在那邊...
Lydia avatar
By Lydia
at 2022-09-24T19:52
現在這樣還是覺得機構48hrs要集體失智難度還是蠻高
Adele avatar
By Adele
at 2022-09-22T11:55
繼續看
Ida avatar
By Ida
at 2022-09-24T19:52
失智是不至於 但會不會靠得比煙花進就很難說
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2022-09-22T11:55
已經全部都跳船了 短時間應該很難一次沈船XD
Dinah avatar
By Dinah
at 2022-09-24T19:52
vvvvvv
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2022-09-22T11:55
新竹冬天的東北季風都比40公里/hr還大
Dinah avatar
By Dinah
at 2022-09-24T19:52
「真的就只是這樣直直的往北嗎?」
這才是我目前的最大疑問 XD
Elizabeth avatar
By Elizabeth
at 2022-09-22T11:55
這次最極限大概就老J的石垣島西表島了吧
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2022-09-24T19:52
不過高壓沒斷到底要怎麼北上??
Agnes avatar
By Agnes
at 2022-09-22T11:55
能西到西表島就已經很好了
Rosalind avatar
By Rosalind
at 2022-09-24T19:52
與那國不敢想XD
軒的環流還是有辦法頂過去吧
Iris avatar
By Iris
at 2022-09-22T11:55
24hr內高壓如果沒斷,就可能會是另一個劇本了
石垣島西邊就好,我不期待會經過與那國島
Liam avatar
By Liam
at 2022-09-24T19:52
高壓明晚就斷了吧 現在還不是時機
Carol avatar
By Carol
at 2022-09-22T11:55
真想看全體機構大翻船的說
Frederic avatar
By Frederic
at 2022-09-24T19:52
北面高壓沒斷 又沒頂屁股 那還真難想像怎麼走正北XD
Annie avatar
By Annie
at 2022-09-22T11:55
只靠內力飄的話會是西北西 而且很慢
Freda avatar
By Freda
at 2022-09-24T19:52
因為斷的時間還沒到啊
Aaliyah avatar
By Aaliyah
at 2022-09-22T11:55
目前預測停車的時間會落在1號晚上到2號晚上
Mason avatar
By Mason
at 2022-09-24T19:52
想看世紀大翻船+1
Frederica avatar
By Frederica
at 2022-09-22T11:55
所以現在還沒斷其實正常
Donna avatar
By Donna
at 2022-09-24T19:52
哦?是蜜蘭諾!
Lauren avatar
By Lauren
at 2022-09-22T11:55
速度維持的話 明早應該就跟宮古同經度了
Anonymous avatar
By Anonymous
at 2022-09-24T19:52
明天大概就斷了
Kristin avatar
By Kristin
at 2022-09-22T11:55
比較好奇,以前有什麼大翻船的例子嗎?
Kelly avatar
By Kelly
at 2022-09-24T19:52
艾利? 各機構一直修
Oscar avatar
By Oscar
at 2022-09-22T11:55
話說12w 13w的雲團靠的超近的
Erin avatar
By Erin
at 2022-09-24T19:52
關鍵是明天晚上要北上時轉北的角度 角度西一點就是
石垣西表島 如果像卡大說的有可能往東打一個圈就是
宮古島或以東北上
Hedy avatar
By Hedy
at 2022-09-22T11:55
杜鵑
Skylar DavisLinda avatar
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2022-09-24T19:52
杜鵑 第一天遠洋北轉 第二天日本 第三天琉球-台灣
Megan avatar
By Megan
at 2022-09-22T11:55
記錯名字 XD 是泰利
Todd Johnson avatar
By Todd Johnson
at 2022-09-24T19:52
不過像48hr內還大翻盤的有嗎?
Ethan avatar
By Ethan
at 2022-09-22T11:55
很少 48小時就是偏差多少而已 大方向確定
Susan avatar
By Susan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
納莉記得也是大翻盤。一開始認為東北轉走後來西南
直撲。不知有無記錯
Cara avatar
By Cara
at 2022-09-22T11:55
納莉那時候的電腦跟現在的電腦不能比XD
Una avatar
By Una
at 2022-09-24T19:52
不過系集其實還沒完全收束,都還有可能就是
Carol avatar
By Carol
at 2022-09-24T17:50
現在的超級電腦我覺得48hr內很難出現在甚麼大翻盤
最多就是偏差修正而已
Sandy avatar
By Sandy
at 2022-09-22T11:55
納莉似乎是一開始報東北轉走後來西南直撲,不知有無
記錯
Ophelia avatar
By Ophelia
at 2022-09-24T19:52
也是,好多年前了哈哈
Andy avatar
By Andy
at 2022-09-22T11:55
賽洛瑪:12小時翻盤 用現在電腦算當時不知道會如何
Quintina avatar
By Quintina
at 2022-09-24T19:52
當時是釣竿比預報的不夠力 副高弱點不足以讓杜鵑突
Donna avatar
By Donna
at 2022-09-22T11:55
破北上 就過來了
Carol avatar
By Carol
at 2022-09-24T19:52
高壓當然沒斷,24小時後沒斷才要想怎麼北上
Edith avatar
By Edith
at 2022-09-22T11:55
現在超級電腦 AI大數據還能抓過去天氣圖來比對
大氣配置去抓總能有類似路徑+當前數據
Xanthe avatar
By Xanthe
at 2022-09-24T19:52
48小時大翻盤的 2003的米勒吧
Faithe avatar
By Faithe
at 2022-09-22T11:55
杜鵑那個也是成形幾天後才發現釣竿不夠力
2003也19年前了XD
Ethan avatar
By Ethan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
要48小時全體預測失智真的有點困難
Tom avatar
By Tom
at 2022-09-22T11:55
接著24小時內可以觀察軒仔北面雲系有沒有和槽線接起
Leila avatar
By Leila
at 2022-09-24T19:52
科技進步 同時也失去了意外的驚異感 有得有失啊
Joseph avatar
By Joseph
at 2022-09-22T11:55
氣象局表示: 不可以有意外XD
Delia avatar
By Delia
at 2022-09-24T19:52
現在EC已經升級很多版了,要翻車很難
Kyle avatar
By Kyle
at 2022-09-22T11:55
GFS12Z開獎中,貌似有點小變化
Yuri avatar
By Yuri
at 2022-09-24T19:52
內眼要崩了
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2022-09-22T11:55
沒有意外才是好事,這也是氣象預報的目標
Edith avatar
By Edith
at 2022-09-24T19:52
48小時內最多修正範圍大概就與那國-石垣或石垣-宮古
的差距而已
Lucy avatar
By Lucy
at 2022-09-22T11:55
意外的驚喜感 XDDD 笑死
Carolina Franco avatar
By Carolina Franco
at 2022-09-24T19:52
你為什麼要還原我自肅改掉的那個字 真的心有靈犀
Elvira avatar
By Elvira
at 2022-09-22T11:55
不過米勒是反過來 認為槽線打擊不了副高會往南海
結果颱風就北上了.....
Mason avatar
By Mason
at 2022-09-24T19:52
小鋼砲但是外圈也很大 掃進來了
Elizabeth avatar
By Elizabeth
at 2022-09-22T11:55
畢竟是天災講驚喜是有點不夠謹慎
Anonymous avatar
By Anonymous
at 2022-09-24T19:52
20年前的超級電腦,現在大概隨便幾顆i9-12900KS(?
Eartha avatar
By Eartha
at 2022-09-22T11:55
接下來就看怎麼煞車轉彎了吧
Heather avatar
By Heather
at 2022-09-24T19:52
GFS 12Z 東調 大概現在就是西改東修 差不多落在
Frederic avatar
By Frederic
at 2022-09-22T11:55
大概就是八重山與宮古島之間進洞
Vanessa avatar
By Vanessa
at 2022-09-24T19:52
軒仔的雲系快要跟13w接起來了
Callum avatar
By Callum
at 2022-09-22T11:55
13w快被吞了
Candice avatar
By Candice
at 2022-09-24T19:52
GFS這幾報都差不多 感覺差不多定調了
Daph Bay avatar
By Daph Bay
at 2022-09-22T11:55
當然如果沒有ECMWF,其他全球數值模式的進步就很緩
慢,大多把心力放在區域模式
Hedy avatar
By Hedy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
像UKMO的UKMET,五年前誤差在全球第三低,現在已經
被EC和GFS拋在後頭看不到車尾燈…
Lydia avatar
By Lydia
at 2022-09-22T11:55
https://i.imgur.com/eMZvqyl.png
嗯 台媒正常發揮
Todd Johnson avatar
By Todd Johnson
at 2022-09-24T19:52
確實可能啊,系集還是有這麼幾條xd
雖然有點難哈哈
Oliver avatar
By Oliver
at 2022-09-22T11:55
抬黴就喜歡挑那個機率最低的來說嘴
Annie avatar
By Annie
at 2022-09-24T19:52
來了也在假日 乾脆不要來
Ida avatar
By Ida
at 2022-09-22T11:55
先求有吧,星期幾已經不重要了☺
Ethan avatar
By Ethan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
彭啟明才說今天幫記者好好上了一課XDD
Puput avatar
By Puput
at 2022-09-22T11:55
假日5&6天就有1次 颱風一年365天有幾次
Xanthe avatar
By Xanthe
at 2022-09-24T19:52
記者就故意的 上課也沒救
Callum avatar
By Callum
at 2022-09-22T11:55
目前就期待NCEP在2024的GFSv17改版能追上EC
Caroline avatar
By Caroline
at 2022-09-24T19:52
以前常常被騙 後來的本來就會不大相信 我沒再跟你
Gary avatar
By Gary
at 2022-09-22T11:55
因為EC的48r1只是把EPS的水平解析度從18km縮小到9km
Yedda avatar
By Yedda
at 2022-09-24T19:52
GFS 12z登陸韓國
Agnes avatar
By Agnes
at 2022-09-22T11:55
開始吸星大法
Lydia avatar
By Lydia
at 2022-09-24T19:52
不會像去年一樣不想做事就想辦法不發陸警吧
Mason avatar
By Mason
at 2022-09-22T11:55
單獨說這一次....
Bennie avatar
By Bennie
at 2022-09-24T19:52
CWB的MPAS也要加油
Sierra Rose avatar
By Sierra Rose
at 2022-09-22T11:55
縮小暴風圈就不用發陸警了阿
這次重點要補水 發路警倒是其次
Charlotte avatar
By Charlotte
at 2022-09-24T19:52
內眼快崩完了 置換即將完成
Dora avatar
By Dora
at 2022-09-22T11:55
颱風底下的城市感覺要被吹很久
Tristan Cohan avatar
By Tristan Cohan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
台灣有防護罩(x) 暴風圈定到剛好不會發警報(o)
Catherine avatar
By Catherine
at 2022-09-22T11:55
如果東北部不會有十級陣風的話,就不需要發陸警了,
至少看EC是沒機會
Michael avatar
By Michael
at 2022-09-24T19:52
就算暴風圈有碰到,還是會有風雨狀況不如預期的
Ingrid avatar
By Ingrid
at 2022-09-22T11:55
像去年璨樹,這次還離更遠
Candice avatar
By Candice
at 2022-09-24T19:52
不用把氣象局定的暴風圈看那麼重啦 大家心裡都嘛有
Gary avatar
By Gary
at 2022-09-22T11:55
燦樹不一樣 燦樹風圈太小+強風圈都在海上
Irma avatar
By Irma
at 2022-09-24T19:52
AMSU最新掃描到137KTS,強度減弱中
Andrew avatar
By Andrew
at 2022-09-22T11:55
北部下雨了
Kristin avatar
By Kristin
at 2022-09-24T19:52
13w要被捲進去了
Connor avatar
By Connor
at 2022-09-22T11:55
風場要擴大囉~
Belly avatar
By Belly
at 2022-09-24T19:52
東邊的LLC對流爆超猛
Hamiltion avatar
By Hamiltion
at 2022-09-22T11:55
這速度有點低估喔 https://i.imgur.com/mZGiICX.gif
Margaret avatar
By Margaret
at 2022-09-24T19:52
今天天母的比賽還提前裁定 羅力引退賽感覺涼了...
Michael avatar
By Michael
at 2022-09-22T11:55
只能祈禱奇跡發生了
ccc
Tracy avatar
By Tracy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
其實天母裁定以後大概有一個小時沒再下雨了,真的
太剛好了
Audriana avatar
By Audriana
at 2022-09-22T11:55
我不解,這種強度颱風怎麼會有人希望撞進來。
Emma avatar
By Emma
at 2022-09-24T19:52
這種強度撞進來絕對是到處都災情…
Jessica avatar
By Jessica
at 2022-09-22T11:55
災情可以預防但缺水不行....
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2022-09-24T19:52
打雷了 新竹
Kumar avatar
By Kumar
at 2022-09-22T11:55
現在感覺西分量有減少 開始往南南西的樣子
Noah avatar
By Noah
at 2022-09-24T19:52
速度好快 真的會直接北轉嗎...
Regina avatar
By Regina
at 2022-09-22T11:55
我看的是很穩定的朝西南...一點減速都沒有
Susan avatar
By Susan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
機構預測近幾年很少會大翻盤,特別是時間越接近越準
Yuri avatar
By Yuri
at 2022-09-22T11:55
不過之前也看過這種高速直接過彎北轉的
Anonymous avatar
By Anonymous
at 2022-09-24T19:52
沒吧,去年從台東登陸一路直接遠離台灣
Oscar avatar
By Oscar
at 2022-09-22T11:55
就耐心等它大迴轉吧
Lily avatar
By Lily
at 2022-09-24T19:52
+48hr以內大方向已確定 幾乎不會翻盤了 頂多路徑微
調
Ophelia avatar
By Ophelia
at 2022-09-22T11:55
初始場會一直修正,但接近時的+-24小時就不太有什麼
意外
Hedy avatar
By Hedy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
他應該不會直接北轉 預測上會龜速飄一陣子
Puput avatar
By Puput
at 2022-09-22T11:55
預報上會龜速北漂12-24小時左右
現在南分量變大應該還是互旋的關係
Puput avatar
By Puput
at 2022-09-24T19:52
像早年納莉、韋恩這種到快接近時,路徑還抓不準的,
在電腦不斷進步下,以經很難出現
Connor avatar
By Connor
at 2022-09-22T11:55
死心吧乖乖上班
不可能過來了
Margaret avatar
By Margaret
at 2022-09-24T19:52
超級電腦很猛的
Steve avatar
By Steve
at 2022-09-22T11:55
https://i.imgur.com/LvLXC1k.jpg
前三天準確率98%以上
牛逼
莫非定律?
Emily avatar
By Emily
at 2022-09-24T19:52
眼溫和對流都在加強中,從現在到中午就是軒嵐諾的巔
峰期,之後就要攪冷水
Selena avatar
By Selena
at 2022-09-22T11:55
https://i.imgur.com/qOUlQXQ.jpg
EcmWF超級電腦最強 搭配餛飩理論
Poppy avatar
By Poppy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
乖乖上班
Regina avatar
By Regina
at 2022-09-22T11:55
前面有人在期待放假的嗎?沒有吧?我可不希望放假
只希望補到水庫的水
Emma avatar
By Emma
at 2022-09-24T19:52
北部秋冬是雨季本來就會補水,危險的是中南部,這颱
風照預測中南部水庫補不了多少
Candice avatar
By Candice
at 2022-09-22T11:55
來了來了,ADT的T值狂飆中
Jessica avatar
By Jessica
at 2022-09-24T19:52
14鳳凰好像有翻盤 本來預測走西海岸最後才走東海岸
Sandy avatar
By Sandy
at 2022-09-22T11:55
ec+48近石垣經度
Delia avatar
By Delia
at 2022-09-24T19:52
不知是不是風眼跳動 開始偏南南西
Charlotte avatar
By Charlotte
at 2022-09-22T11:55
EC 31 12Z 劇本走JTWC/JMA 的路線
Kyle avatar
By Kyle
at 2022-09-24T19:52
我不怕
Eden avatar
By Eden
at 2022-09-22T11:55
根據過去經驗 這種大轉灣處最容易翻盤了
Hedy avatar
By Hedy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
東軍快站出來 快輸了
Iris avatar
By Iris
at 2022-09-22T11:55
再西一點吧 台灣需要雨水
Ethan avatar
By Ethan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
EC目前的預測是有發陸警的可能
Kama avatar
By Kama
at 2022-09-22T11:55
近五年沒印象有看到翻盤的
Ethan avatar
By Ethan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
最西到石垣島就很好了
Queena avatar
By Queena
at 2022-09-22T11:55
在系集範圍內的誤差還是有的吧~
Madame avatar
By Madame
at 2022-09-24T19:52
西起來
Kama avatar
By Kama
at 2022-09-22T11:55
近五年記得只有預測侵台翻盤的QQ
Bethany avatar
By Bethany
at 2022-09-24T19:52
系集又不代表機率一樣
高壓還存在就別想翻盤ㄌ
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2022-09-22T11:55
有來到石垣島以西 全台應該都能補水了
Tristan Cohan avatar
By Tristan Cohan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
可是一直往西了
Liam avatar
By Liam
at 2022-09-22T11:55
https://i.imgur.com/OUk0JUU.jpg
Harry avatar
By Harry
at 2022-09-24T19:52
不小心重複貼圖了
Zora avatar
By Zora
at 2022-09-22T11:55
展望起來
Carolina Franco avatar
By Carolina Franco
at 2022-09-24T19:52
CWB三寶 調強度 風圈 定位
Sandy avatar
By Sandy
at 2022-09-22T11:55
照老J這樣走,還真的是陸警邊緣。
John avatar
By John
at 2022-09-24T19:52
https://imgur.com/a/OmpN5zO
Harry avatar
By Harry
at 2022-09-22T11:55
謹此紀念13W的LLCC 終化為一陣輕煙...
Noah avatar
By Noah
at 2022-09-24T19:52
好漂亮的颱風
Franklin avatar
By Franklin
at 2022-09-22T11:55
https://i.imgur.com/mJwBtxV.jpg
Enid avatar
By Enid
at 2022-09-24T19:52
眼牆置換成功 ADT:6.9!
Quanna avatar
By Quanna
at 2022-09-22T11:55
https://imgur.com/HM4ZCgo 這次的眼牆置換過程
Wallis avatar
By Wallis
at 2022-09-24T19:52
超美
https://i.imgur.com/EwRcWrQ.jpg
Elizabeth avatar
By Elizabeth
at 2022-09-22T11:55
這次老J的評價強度肯定會超越一巔了
Robert avatar
By Robert
at 2022-09-24T19:52
好久沒有看到這麼水的颱風了(煙)
Iris avatar
By Iris
at 2022-09-22T11:55
老J T7.0
Charlotte avatar
By Charlotte
at 2022-09-24T19:52
好美的颱風
Callum avatar
By Callum
at 2022-09-22T11:55
可惜東邊的系統壽終正寢了 高壓會摸屁股的啊
Xanthe avatar
By Xanthe
at 2022-09-22T11:55
可憐的蕃薯
Olive avatar
By Olive
at 2022-09-24T19:52
都到門口了再近一點…
Kelly avatar
By Kelly
at 2022-09-22T11:55
JTWC 15報來了
Hedy avatar
By Hedy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
https://i.imgur.com/2Huhi1g.jpg
Kristin avatar
By Kristin
at 2022-09-22T11:55
再西點阿阿阿阿阿
Mary avatar
By Mary
at 2022-09-24T19:52
13W怎麼變尾巴了
Olga avatar
By Olga
at 2022-09-22T11:55
好可憐的98W 被吃得很慘
Mason avatar
By Mason
at 2022-09-24T19:52
再西
Annie avatar
By Annie
at 2022-09-22T11:55
Cccccccc
Ula avatar
By Ula
at 2022-09-24T19:52
不過因為98W壯烈犧牲 現在 軒嵐諾變得又大又美了
Zanna avatar
By Zanna
at 2022-09-22T11:55
EC 12Z系集西調?
Elvira avatar
By Elvira
at 2022-09-24T19:52
這如果軒撞進來台灣 可不是小鋼炮的等級了
Quanna avatar
By Quanna
at 2022-09-22T11:55
雷達可以看到眼睛惹
Annie avatar
By Annie
at 2022-09-24T19:52
https://i.imgur.com/zIN5hlW.png
jma和cwb相去不遠
Damian avatar
By Damian
at 2022-09-22T11:55
沒什麼影響沒風雨
Elma avatar
By Elma
at 2022-09-24T19:52
撞進來機率低,家門口看它通過吧
大酋長之夢只能再等等囉
Delia avatar
By Delia
at 2022-09-22T11:55
軒嵐諾也是達成好幾個成就了 高緯貓五 高緯南落
還有非常精彩的一次雙颱效應 以及原本不太看好現在
Charlotte avatar
By Charlotte
at 2022-09-24T19:52
可能有發警報的機率了
Lydia avatar
By Lydia
at 2022-09-22T11:55
ADT:7.0 !
Brianna avatar
By Brianna
at 2022-09-24T19:52
軒嵐諾:BTS~~~我來了~~歐巴們等我啊~~~
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2022-09-22T11:55
https://imgur.com/ntGajPS接下來很關鍵了 差不多要
轉向了
Lily avatar
By Lily
at 2022-09-24T19:52
他南落的速度好快,感覺中午就跟台灣最南緯度一樣了
Erin avatar
By Erin
at 2022-09-22T11:55
敢不敢....再西一點
Gilbert avatar
By Gilbert
at 2022-09-24T19:52
感覺真可怕的颱風
Queena avatar
By Queena
at 2022-09-22T11:55
根本沒減速 覺得路徑應該會比預期再往西一點
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2022-09-24T19:52
暴風圈可能會再擴大成250KM
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2022-09-22T11:55
https://imgur.com/B5tk9uD
Christine avatar
By Christine
at 2022-09-24T19:52
很猛的底層
Edwina avatar
By Edwina
at 2022-09-22T11:55
這撞進來連中央山脈都會被吹跑的感覺
Eartha avatar
By Eartha
at 2022-09-24T19:52
好強喔
Carol avatar
By Carol
at 2022-09-22T11:55
大膽的跨過124吧
Olga avatar
By Olga
at 2022-09-24T19:52
跨過124 +1
Jessica avatar
By Jessica
at 2022-09-22T11:55
那麼強的颱風還是不要來比較好
Sandy avatar
By Sandy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
再西點吧
Agatha avatar
By Agatha
at 2022-09-22T11:55
看預報今晚9點北轉
Christine avatar
By Christine
at 2022-09-24T19:52
挑戰123!
Dinah avatar
By Dinah
at 2022-09-22T11:55
厲害
Carol avatar
By Carol
at 2022-09-24T19:52
肥美
https://i.imgur.com/GEMcXXw.jpg
George avatar
By George
at 2022-09-22T11:55
新聞報導,氣象局說:依目前路徑,陸警機率很低
Jessica avatar
By Jessica
at 2022-09-24T19:52
他們有三寶阿...當然低
Zanna avatar
By Zanna
at 2022-09-22T11:55
CWB又要成為最東最小的那個了嗎?
Joe avatar
By Joe
at 2022-09-24T19:52
哇塞這個
Anthony avatar
By Anthony
at 2022-09-22T11:55
https://imgur.com/3KXdcbb 最新ASCAT掃描
Quanna avatar
By Quanna
at 2022-09-24T19:52
看煞不煞得住了
Belly avatar
By Belly
at 2022-09-22T11:55
不要西 有補水足夠就好 不用太多
Kristin avatar
By Kristin
at 2022-09-24T19:52
Ettoday寫放颱風假機率增 有夠87..
Cara avatar
By Cara
at 2022-09-22T11:55
那家媒體本來就這樣了,不用太意外
Sierra Rose avatar
By Sierra Rose
at 2022-09-24T19:52
這幾年來台灣的展望不是說假的
Hedy avatar
By Hedy
at 2022-09-22T11:55
快跟宮古同經度了
Connor avatar
By Connor
at 2022-09-24T19:52
勇敢跨過118吧!!!
Enid avatar
By Enid
at 2022-09-22T11:55
可惜卡鞍 如果能正常速度 這邊就有機會蓋CMG環
Belly avatar
By Belly
at 2022-09-24T19:52
接下來看啥時煞車然後開始轉
Vanessa avatar
By Vanessa
at 2022-09-22T11:55
現在的型態是機構最愛的
Elvira avatar
By Elvira
at 2022-09-24T19:52
基隆有機會補水嗎
Victoria avatar
By Victoria
at 2022-09-22T11:55
98w被吃光了,哭哭
Ina avatar
By Ina
at 2022-09-24T19:52
目前來到125.8
Daph Bay avatar
By Daph Bay
at 2022-09-22T11:55
拜託放假吧
Edward Lewis avatar
By Edward Lewis
at 2022-09-24T19:52
現在南的角度好大。西份量反而減少了
Tristan Cohan avatar
By Tristan Cohan
at 2022-09-22T11:55
可能中南部看有沒有西南氣流才會放假?
Anonymous avatar
By Anonymous
at 2022-09-24T19:52
基隆是怕平溪瑞芳下太大 水太濁吧
Caitlin avatar
By Caitlin
at 2022-09-22T11:55
現在南大好像是預期內
John avatar
By John
at 2022-09-24T19:52
放不放假是重點嗎 這裡是大氣板
Olga avatar
By Olga
at 2022-09-22T11:55
有人就是故意無病呻吟~沒來這喊個放假身體會不痛快
Necoo avatar
By Necoo
at 2022-09-24T19:52
分洪有開時 基隆河水根本是泥流~
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2022-09-22T11:55
誰敢提放假就不算風迷
Lauren avatar
By Lauren
at 2022-09-24T19:52
EC12Z系集西修蠻多的
Tracy avatar
By Tracy
at 2022-09-22T11:55
這個升龍拳路線感覺蠻有趣的
Annie avatar
By Annie
at 2022-09-24T19:52
都沒什麼雨QQ
Michael avatar
By Michael
at 2022-09-22T11:55
再靠近一點點 補完水就好去日本旅遊惹
Dorothy avatar
By Dorothy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
那家媒體 為了騙點閱 什麼下限事都做得出來 嘔嘔嘔
Erin avatar
By Erin
at 2022-09-22T11:55
風場跟燦樹哪個大
Todd Johnson avatar
By Todd Johnson
at 2022-09-24T19:52
這樣上去會有西南氣流嗎?
Charlotte avatar
By Charlotte
at 2022-09-22T11:55
欸….已經沒有向西份量了?
Sierra Rose avatar
By Sierra Rose
at 2022-09-24T19:52
吞完13w就 比燦樹大多了
Elvira avatar
By Elvira
at 2022-09-22T11:55
有西修很多嗎 牆壁依舊
Susan avatar
By Susan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
現在走南南西吧
Ivy avatar
By Ivy
at 2022-09-22T11:55
無法穿越嘆息之牆
Ina avatar
By Ina
at 2022-09-24T19:52
每點這種時候大氣版就會變放假版...無視吧
Ingrid avatar
By Ingrid
at 2022-09-22T11:55
這颱就不可能放假 而且向西份量也在減少
還是直接V走了吧
Poppy avatar
By Poppy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
沒發警報不會放假 去年圓規示範過了
James avatar
By James
at 2022-09-22T11:55
這顆完畢以後今年台灣應該就這樣了
Isabella avatar
By Isabella
at 2022-09-24T19:52
確定只有今年這樣嗎...
Hedwig avatar
By Hedwig
at 2022-09-22T11:55
這顆沒來今年就這樣了
Hamiltion avatar
By Hamiltion
at 2022-09-24T19:52
展望n年
Hedwig avatar
By Hedwig
at 2022-09-22T11:55
都九月了,今年應該就這樣了吧。
Madame avatar
By Madame
at 2022-09-24T19:52
沒這麼悲觀吧!歷年九月還是常有颱風來台灣啊
James avatar
By James
at 2022-09-22T11:55
V起來
Charlotte avatar
By Charlotte
at 2022-09-24T19:52
揪竟能不能突破墾丁線呢
Elizabeth avatar
By Elizabeth
at 2022-09-22T11:55
再西一點.....
Elma avatar
By Elma
at 2022-09-24T19:52
突破墾丁線補水在眼前
Robert avatar
By Robert
at 2022-09-22T11:55
煞不住直接下20N啦
John avatar
By John
at 2022-09-24T19:52
現在多南不是重點,重點是能多西
Ophelia avatar
By Ophelia
at 2022-09-22T11:55
西一點吧
Belly avatar
By Belly
at 2022-09-24T19:52
有要開始北轉的減速跡象了嗎
Liam avatar
By Liam
at 2022-09-22T11:55
晚安 晚安 再說一聲 明年見.............
Margaret avatar
By Margaret
at 2022-09-24T19:52
https://i.imgur.com/nC1eGvh.jpg
Victoria avatar
By Victoria
at 2022-09-22T11:55
快C不下去了
Skylar Davis avatar
By Skylar Davis
at 2022-09-24T19:52
EC12Z決定性預報還蠻偏東的,系集半數成員已經在石
垣已西
Daniel avatar
By Daniel
at 2022-09-22T11:55
怎最終實線在系集那麼靠東的位置?
Hazel avatar
By Hazel
at 2022-09-24T19:52
對啊系集大多數都在最終預報西邊。頗怪
Bennie avatar
By Bennie
at 2022-09-22T11:55
會不會最後撞菲律賓
Sierra Rose avatar
By Sierra Rose
at 2022-09-24T19:52
緯度就這樣,要怎麼撞菲律賓....
Todd Johnson avatar
By Todd Johnson
at 2022-09-22T11:55
jma持續往宮古島東修
除JTWC外的機構都是東修
Lily avatar
By Lily
at 2022-09-24T19:52
不確定性還是不低 往東轉一圈北上可能性也是存在的
Daniel avatar
By Daniel
at 2022-09-22T11:55
看這顆補多少水了 臺灣水情蠻不樂觀
Damian avatar
By Damian
at 2022-09-24T19:52
東起來
Andy avatar
By Andy
at 2022-09-22T11:55
東東東東東 週末別下雨最好0.0
Dora avatar
By Dora
at 2022-09-24T19:52
所以現在就是看實際往哪跑
Tom avatar
By Tom
at 2022-09-22T11:55
TWRF就是往東轉一圈北上
Elma avatar
By Elma
at 2022-09-24T19:52
https://i.imgur.com/8pCa1dW.png
跑的比預期還南 但沒有比較西 應該是各機構東修原
Caitlin avatar
By Caitlin
at 2022-09-22T11:55
然後風場擴大也可能使地形效應出現可能性
Tracy avatar
By Tracy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
軒後面尾巴好大 會阻擋RMT?
Charlotte avatar
By Charlotte
at 2022-09-22T11:55
看jam雷達 是不是又有雙眼牆
Ophelia avatar
By Ophelia
at 2022-09-24T19:52
若目前速度來看 中午前可能就到墾丁線了
Ethan avatar
By Ethan
at 2022-09-22T11:55
但EC系集跟決定性預報差滿多的也滿奇特
Tracy avatar
By Tracy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
中南部水情根本還好,比較缺的可能是曾烏系統,但這
是主農業使用的
Tracy avatar
By Tracy
at 2022-09-22T11:55
北部應該能捕到水吧~
Ethan avatar
By Ethan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
雷達看已經開始正南了
Lauren avatar
By Lauren
at 2022-09-22T11:55
這顆又不是颱風季最後一顆,我看基隆先補水比較要
Ethan avatar
By Ethan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
Liam avatar
By Liam
at 2022-09-22T11:55
中南部水情比2年前同期好多了
Queena avatar
By Queena
at 2022-09-24T19:52
我看北部還比較缺,這顆剛好補北部,竹苗一堆近滿
Edward Lewis avatar
By Edward Lewis
at 2022-09-22T11:55
的,中部鯉魚潭/德基/日月潭都80幾以上,雲嘉也是
滿,南部曾烏之前說過了,南化時不時都溢流了
Andrew avatar
By Andrew
at 2022-09-24T19:52
這段南落,數值模式掌握的很好
Caroline avatar
By Caroline
at 2022-09-22T11:55
這距離,週五放假機率應該是0吧?
Sandy avatar
By Sandy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
東邊系統轉暖的速度緩慢,剩沒多少時間了
Charlie avatar
By Charlie
at 2022-09-22T11:55
也到了差不多可以準備看他北轉時間點了
Kumar avatar
By Kumar
at 2022-09-24T19:52
EC 18z維持不變 宮古島北上
Joe avatar
By Joe
at 2022-09-22T11:55
這報系集應該會變動 等等來看
Annie avatar
By Annie
at 2022-09-24T19:52
它還得停滯一段時間,東方系統加油一點還是來得及
,事實上系集對東方系統的訊號有加強,看下去囉
Barb Cronin avatar
By Barb Cronin
at 2022-09-22T11:55
下基隆啊!!!缺水啊!!!
Lydia avatar
By Lydia
at 2022-09-24T19:52
https://i.imgur.com/oZINRu5.png
Ivy avatar
By Ivy
at 2022-09-22T11:55
所以越往南也有更多修正機會
Lydia avatar
By Lydia
at 2022-09-24T19:52
斷了嗚嗚
Thomas avatar
By Thomas
at 2022-09-22T11:55
我飄向北方~
Ophelia avatar
By Ophelia
at 2022-09-24T19:52
https://imgur.com/yjcmrMg EC18Z 漸往東修
Kristin avatar
By Kristin
at 2022-09-22T11:55
斷了QQ
Una avatar
By Una
at 2022-09-24T19:52
高壓斷了,那應該會離台灣更遠
Lily avatar
By Lily
at 2022-09-22T11:55
這樣是不是影響台灣的時間會變短啊,連雨都沒補到
Elvira avatar
By Elvira
at 2022-09-24T19:52
多少囧
Connor avatar
By Connor
at 2022-09-22T11:55
提早落跑劇本SET
Oscar avatar
By Oscar
at 2022-09-24T19:52
比提早斷北轉 是不是要沒戲了…
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2022-09-22T11:55
請問高壓斷掉之後 北部雨勢還會像現在預報的一樣大
Susan avatar
By Susan
at 2022-09-24T19:52
嗎?
Kristin avatar
By Kristin
at 2022-09-22T11:55
未來一兩天颱風像是原地打轉 雨量不會太少
Sandy avatar
By Sandy
at 2022-09-24T19:52
該下的雨還是會下
Hedda avatar
By Hedda
at 2022-09-22T11:55
一路向北

2211 軒嵐諾

Noah avatar
By Noah
at 2022-08-31T15:44
今天早上10點氣象局直播的截圖 https://i.imgur.com/thV1qv6.png JTWC 第13報 C4 颱風 軒嵐諾 世界協調時間 8月31號 06:00 位置:北緯 25.4度 東經 129.0 度 中心氣壓: 926百帕 中心付近最大風速: 130 KTS JTWC預測路徑: h ...

2211 軒嵐諾

Madame avatar
By Madame
at 2022-08-31T09:23
今天早上10點氣象局直播的截圖 https://i.imgur.com/thV1qv6.png JTWC 第12報 C4 颱風 軒嵐諾 世界協調時間 8月31號 00:00 位置:北緯 25.9度 東經 130.3 度 中心氣壓: 924百帕 中心付近最大風速: 135 KTS JTWC預測路徑:ht ...

98W GW

Ida avatar
By Ida
at 2022-08-30T15:57
98W的最新圖資 EC 30 06Z 144小時系集:https://i.imgur.com/9ijUzyB.png JMA路徑預測圖:https://i.imgur.com/vbzegTP.jpg 98W防害風化:https://i.imgur.com/8qa8NQK.gif 熱帯低気圧 b 202 ...

2211 軒嵐諾

John avatar
By John
at 2022-08-30T15:47
以下圖資都是今天30(日)晚上最新的!!! 以下圖資都是今天30(日)晚上最新的!!! 以下圖資都是今天30(日)晚上最新的!!! 晚安! JTWC 第10報 C4 颱風 軒嵐諾 世界協調時間 8月30號 12:00 位置:北緯 26.5度 東經 133.6 度 中心氣壓: 926 百帕 中心付近最大 ...

天氣小觀:中颱軒嵐諾,挑戰強颱應該沒問題

Noah avatar
By Noah
at 2022-08-30T13:54
天氣小觀:中颱軒嵐諾,挑戰強颱應該沒問題 軒嵐諾颱風的誕生從8/26西太平洋由西向東的季風槽中三團擾動, 靠東邊的分別兩個98W和90W,其中又以90W是最靠東邊的熱帶擾動, 由於位於太平洋高壓中心西南邊緣,初始氣旋最有利維持, 加上西風槽提供的槽前輻散,於是率先形成軒嵐諾颱風。 目前中度颱風軒嵐諾颱風在 ...