天氣小觀:立冬亥月,明起強冷空氣 - 颱風討論
By Daniel
at 2021-11-07T09:38
at 2021-11-07T09:38
Table of Contents
天氣小觀:立冬亥月,明起強冷空氣
立冬亥月,本應南方深秋,
但今年的立冬,東亞寒潮爆發,
台灣也跟上一波強冷空氣,且不排除達標冷氣團的強烈冷空氣;
令人納悶,
到底是文學之秋走了,還是巧遇科技之冬。
英國作家Alain de Botton在旅行的藝術一書中,
時序之入冬,一如人之將老,徐緩漸進,每日變化細微,
殊難確察,日日壘疊,終成嚴冬。
英國屬海洋氣候,書中提到的入冬轉變,
先是晚間溫度微降,
接著連日陰雨,伴隨著是來自大西洋捉摸不定的陣風、潮濕的空氣、紛飛的樹葉。
白晝亦見短促,期間也許會有短暫的風雨漸歇,天氣晴好,人們不穿大衣便可一早出門,
但這些都只是假象...
因為到了12月,冬日已森然盤踞,整座城市每天都被鐵灰色的天空籠罩。
英國海洋性氣候,入冬是漸進的;但東亞的入冬是大陸型氣候,入冬往往是轟然降臨的。
以古觀之氣象,
天傾西北,亥為出水之方,地陷東南,辰為納水之府,水不絕源,仗金生而流遠。
亥月起,西北方大陸冷高壓已達鼎盛,產出的冷鋒帶來寒冷金水之氣,
只要有西風槽之金氣源源不絕,降雨入河的水遠遠流長。
台灣屬於副熱帶(亞熱帶)氣候,
其中北部為副熱帶季風氣候區,南部為熱帶季風氣候區。
由於台灣是海島,受到暖濕氣流和洋流的影響,屬於海洋性氣候,
但因距離大陸近,同時也受到大陸性氣候的影響。
模式預報,明起強冷空氣就要南下,
西北冷高壓從新疆甘肅南下,凌晨起冷鋒過境降雨,後頭就是乾冷的大陸性氣團。
這次冷高壓從西北往東南,在華南堆積分裂高壓,南支槽的印度洋水氣完全被抑制,
且,
不像蒙古冷高壓從東亞南下,由蒙古高原主中心控場,
新疆甘肅南下的冷高壓受地形阻擋,到處堆積冷空氣,沒有單一主中心控場,
因此華南分裂高壓的氣壓梯度鬆散,東北季風速小,海氣耦合作用小,
再加上東北季風途經的海洋路徑短,水氣含量較少,
因此,台灣冷鋒過境,全台逐漸轉乾。(東部轉乾最晚要等到周三)
模式顯示,週五以後冷空氣減弱,南方增溫,溫度梯度增大,東北季風風速加強,
東北季風的海氣耦合開始加強,東北部開始降地形雨。
值得注意的是,東北部後期週末以後可能又變成長期降雨了,
因為一週過後,菲律賓東方又開始有氣旋擾動活躍了,東北季風一天比一天轉強勁。
強勁的東北季風風速強勁,
強烈的東北季風溫度低寒,
因此,
一週過後,也許又可以看到南方擾動發展了,但沒意外的話,無法接近台灣。
因為台灣高空轉為西風帶系統,
除非,
副熱帶高壓發威展現"東方太平洋上"的太平洋高壓了。(台灣東方為太平洋高壓勢力)
在科技的季節-冬季是否準備到來之際,
2021年4月全球氣候領袖峰會各國達成共識,全球應有具體行動,
並於2050年達到淨零碳排之目標。
「地球工程」為「為了應對地球氣候變化極其影響,
對地球的環境以及氣候進行人為干涉而採取的大規模工程技術和方法」,
並提出了九種可能的地球工程方案,
包括:
碳捕獲法、強化風蝕法、造林法、平流層噴霧法、太空反射鏡法、造雲反射法、
生物碳法、海洋施肥法及地表反射法。
只是,
失速的列車之上,人類希望透過自己的力量再度逆轉乾坤,究竟是對是錯,無人知曉。
或許,
人類為了對抗寒冬已知用火後,氣候就不再自然了。
(以上供參囉)
--
立冬亥月,本應南方深秋,
但今年的立冬,東亞寒潮爆發,
台灣也跟上一波強冷空氣,且不排除達標冷氣團的強烈冷空氣;
令人納悶,
到底是文學之秋走了,還是巧遇科技之冬。
英國作家Alain de Botton在旅行的藝術一書中,
時序之入冬,一如人之將老,徐緩漸進,每日變化細微,
殊難確察,日日壘疊,終成嚴冬。
英國屬海洋氣候,書中提到的入冬轉變,
先是晚間溫度微降,
接著連日陰雨,伴隨著是來自大西洋捉摸不定的陣風、潮濕的空氣、紛飛的樹葉。
白晝亦見短促,期間也許會有短暫的風雨漸歇,天氣晴好,人們不穿大衣便可一早出門,
但這些都只是假象...
因為到了12月,冬日已森然盤踞,整座城市每天都被鐵灰色的天空籠罩。
英國海洋性氣候,入冬是漸進的;但東亞的入冬是大陸型氣候,入冬往往是轟然降臨的。
以古觀之氣象,
天傾西北,亥為出水之方,地陷東南,辰為納水之府,水不絕源,仗金生而流遠。
亥月起,西北方大陸冷高壓已達鼎盛,產出的冷鋒帶來寒冷金水之氣,
只要有西風槽之金氣源源不絕,降雨入河的水遠遠流長。
台灣屬於副熱帶(亞熱帶)氣候,
其中北部為副熱帶季風氣候區,南部為熱帶季風氣候區。
由於台灣是海島,受到暖濕氣流和洋流的影響,屬於海洋性氣候,
但因距離大陸近,同時也受到大陸性氣候的影響。
模式預報,明起強冷空氣就要南下,
西北冷高壓從新疆甘肅南下,凌晨起冷鋒過境降雨,後頭就是乾冷的大陸性氣團。
這次冷高壓從西北往東南,在華南堆積分裂高壓,南支槽的印度洋水氣完全被抑制,
且,
不像蒙古冷高壓從東亞南下,由蒙古高原主中心控場,
新疆甘肅南下的冷高壓受地形阻擋,到處堆積冷空氣,沒有單一主中心控場,
因此華南分裂高壓的氣壓梯度鬆散,東北季風速小,海氣耦合作用小,
再加上東北季風途經的海洋路徑短,水氣含量較少,
因此,台灣冷鋒過境,全台逐漸轉乾。(東部轉乾最晚要等到周三)
模式顯示,週五以後冷空氣減弱,南方增溫,溫度梯度增大,東北季風風速加強,
東北季風的海氣耦合開始加強,東北部開始降地形雨。
值得注意的是,東北部後期週末以後可能又變成長期降雨了,
因為一週過後,菲律賓東方又開始有氣旋擾動活躍了,東北季風一天比一天轉強勁。
強勁的東北季風風速強勁,
強烈的東北季風溫度低寒,
因此,
一週過後,也許又可以看到南方擾動發展了,但沒意外的話,無法接近台灣。
因為台灣高空轉為西風帶系統,
除非,
副熱帶高壓發威展現"東方太平洋上"的太平洋高壓了。(台灣東方為太平洋高壓勢力)
在科技的季節-冬季是否準備到來之際,
2021年4月全球氣候領袖峰會各國達成共識,全球應有具體行動,
並於2050年達到淨零碳排之目標。
「地球工程」為「為了應對地球氣候變化極其影響,
對地球的環境以及氣候進行人為干涉而採取的大規模工程技術和方法」,
並提出了九種可能的地球工程方案,
包括:
碳捕獲法、強化風蝕法、造林法、平流層噴霧法、太空反射鏡法、造雲反射法、
生物碳法、海洋施肥法及地表反射法。
只是,
失速的列車之上,人類希望透過自己的力量再度逆轉乾坤,究竟是對是錯,無人知曉。
或許,
人類為了對抗寒冬已知用火後,氣候就不再自然了。
(以上供參囉)
--
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